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Old 09-22-2008, 08:48 AM   #401
skillgambler
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

mike, do you know, that jman220 is well known poker pro phil galfond?
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Old 09-22-2008, 09:09 AM   #402
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Originally Posted by T.J. Combo View Post
I've seen more people go broke on AK than any other hand, mainly because they think it's a made hand like AA or KK. Even after it misses on the flop, they'll hang in there praying to make a pair.

AK vs. KK is a 3 outer though. Kinda like bringing a knife to a gunfight. If the flop is Q, J, 10, you're sitting pretty. Or if it's suited and you hit your flush on the flop, you're sitting pretty. If someone raises over 10X the BB and you think they're holding KK when you have A,K. . . it's a great play to fold that sucker. It's nicknamed Big Slick because it slips so easily into the muck.

Don't get me wrong, AK is a great hand, I'll play it every time, at least to the flop, but if it misses the flop, you need to toss it IMMEDIATELY.

I agree with a lot of what u say,except the last part.IF played RIGHT,AK can win postflop,and so dont need to fold it immediately post flop.

Example:


someome makes a very small bet on flop and turn.I will call very small bets on flop and turn,to try and peel off a A or K on turn and river.If I hit I can play the turn and river.If I dont,I can make a value bluff,check,or fold on the river depending on what happens.


Another example:


They check the flop and the turn.I bet the turn with AK.If they just call,and they check the river,I fire a double barrel on the river.If they reraise me on any street I fold.If I think they are trapping or slowplaying me,I dont fire the double barrel on the river,and just check the river,and so if they bet the river,I fold.


AK is strong enough,that even postflop it can be continued to be played,and doesnt need to be autofolded like you say.The thing is to like you say,not get committed to it,and not get crazy with it,and know when to fold it.


Mike DH
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Old 09-22-2008, 09:40 AM   #403
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Originally Posted by pipes View Post
lol I hope you understand the error in your logic...

You'll need a couple of promotions to get to azz clown status, moran.
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Originally Posted by jman220 View Post
I don't know how you are this dumb. This is like first grade arithmetic, reducing fractions. Seriously, you just lost all credibility on these forums. Please tell me your name on Party Poker so I can add you to my buddy list.
hahahaha.....I know it's just a level, but it's just too funny how he tells the Actuary that he sucks at math, lol
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Old 09-22-2008, 09:46 AM   #404
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

let's just make mike a mod.
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Old 09-22-2008, 09:48 AM   #405
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

mike you're my hero. srsly.
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Old 09-22-2008, 10:08 AM   #406
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Originally Posted by skillgambler View Post
mike, do you know, that jman220 is well known poker pro phil galfond?

I wouldnt care if he was Doyle Brunson,or any of the big name pros.


What he was is saying is still wrong.Pokerstove,my virtual outs system,the poker pros except him,the poker books,except his,say he is wrong.


The only things he got right were his points about not whining complaining about coinflip beats,and overplaying thing.


But he was definately wrong about the KQ being ahead of AA.


Also to those who think this is level.I dont think the guy was leveling.I think Jman is dead serious about what he is saying,and is not leveling.


I do think however,that a lot of people who responded to the Jman guy are were leveling though.


I am probably not going to post anymore responses to Jman.The guy is a stubborn idiot who is only as 1 poster said,thinking in 2 dimensions,instead of 3 dimensions,and doesnt realize that AA and pocket pairs dont have to improve to win.That concept is almost impossible for Jman and others like him to grasp.


So because of that,its pointless to post logical mathematical responses back that prove him wrong,as he will continue to illogically dogmatically continue to think he is right when he is not.


But reading thru the post and responding to him,wasnt a waste.I was laughing my ass off reading thru the whole thread.


Mike DH
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Old 09-22-2008, 10:10 AM   #407
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

mike would you consider yourself an overgrown baby, by any chance?
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Old 09-22-2008, 10:19 AM   #408
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!

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Originally Posted by tom10167 View Post
^How do you have so many posts and know absolutely nothing about anything?
Methinks that thy logic is faulty here. Obviously, for someone to know absolutely nothing about anything inherently implies that such worthy to know absolutely nothing. Since nature abhors a vacuum, and true vacuums don't exist, it is therefor irrefutable that one cannot know nothing and must therefor know something.

Besides, to know nothing about anything would mean to know nothing about nothing - a double negative and therefor grammaticlly incorrect.

Lee
PS: The true spelling is "Maron", not "Moran".
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Old 09-22-2008, 10:20 AM   #409
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

3 years later and this thread still proves its genius.

Greatest tarp ever.
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Old 09-22-2008, 10:23 AM   #410
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Originally Posted by jman220 View Post
The "coinflip" is a common misconception. First, the "9 outs" you refer to to "pair any of the flop cards" exists for the overcards too, so those can't be addressed here. Its very simple, the better hand in poker is the one with more outs. Clearly, AK has more outs than QQ, therefoer AK is a strong favorte 6 outs versus 2 outs is a 3:1 favorite. Stop overplaying your pocket pairs moran!
Just wondering - how does one do the calculations when wild cards are being used?

Lee
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Old 09-22-2008, 10:24 AM   #411
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Originally Posted by Mikeal_DH View Post
But he was definately wrong about the KQ being ahead of AA.
Mike.

I realize this forum is all fun and games, joking around. But we do have to be serious some times. Posts like yours just confuse the new players. You are wrong. Please quit leveling because the people coming over from the beginners forum will actually believe that AA is a favorite agaisnt KQ. Its not. Its simple math that has been done in this thread many times. Im not going to redo the math. But please its time to stop confusing the new players and be serious.
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Old 09-22-2008, 10:29 AM   #412
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!

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Originally Posted by jman220 View Post
Thats because a head is considerably heavier than a tail.
Got this one backwards, I think. After all, look at the size of a peacock's tail as opposed to the size of it's pea-sized brain.

Lee
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Old 09-22-2008, 10:34 AM   #413
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!

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Originally Posted by jman220 View Post
That program seems buggy, as I've demonstrated, overcards should be more like 3:1, I mean I guess I didn't calculate it for there being 9 other people, but it still seems too low of an edge.
But - if AK is 3:1 over a pair, and here it is facing 9 pairs, wouldn't it actually be 3:1 over each of the pairs, and therefore 27:1 (3 x 9) over all of them?

Lee
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Old 09-22-2008, 10:46 AM   #414
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Originally Posted by jasonfish11 View Post
Mike.

I realize this forum is all fun and games, joking around. But we do have to be serious some times. Posts like yours just confuse the new players. You are wrong. Please quit leveling because the people coming over from the beginners forum will actually believe that AA is a favorite agaisnt KQ. Its not. Its simple math that has been done in this thread many times. Im not going to redo the math. But please its time to stop confusing the new players and be serious.

I was both leveling and not leveling in this thread.I was also very serious.
I did the math.AA has so many virtual outs that help AA to hold up and win.Since AA DOESNT HAVE TO IMPROVE TO WIN.


This makes it so that according to the virtual outs system,AA is about 83% to win vs KQ's 17% plus or minus 3 to 6% both ways as the virtual out system is not prefect.


Poker Stove and all the the other calculators like it and Skalansky and Mike Caro and Chris Fergusson have all crunched the mathematical numbers and say that AA is about 85% to win and KQ is about 15% to win.


Your so called simple math that u use is flawed because it only used in 2 dimensional 6 outs > 2 dimensions,instead of 3 dimensional AA doesnt have to hit flop and or improve to win,and any card that doesnt help KQ to win is a virtual out for AA dimensions.


Pokerstove and other calculators and Skalansky and Mike Caro and Chris Fergusson's all that math is correct because it uses the correct 3 dimension thing and not the flawed 2 dimension thing.


But since Jman and others like you cling stubbornly dogmatically to the flawed 2 dimension thing of 6 > 2 instead of the correct 3 dimensional thing of AA not having to improve and virtual outs system,then its pointless to logically and mathematically prove you wrong.


So this is my last post doing so.PLus I probably shouldnt tap the fish glass and disturb the fish like you and Jman.


I will just continue to read the post and laugh my ass off at the post and this thread.


Mike DH
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Old 09-22-2008, 10:52 AM   #415
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Originally Posted by Mikeal_DH View Post
AA has so many virtual outs that help AA to hold up and win.
This makes it so that according to the virtual outs system,AA is about 83% to win vs KQ's 17% plus or minus 3 to 6% both ways as the virtual out system is not prefect.
Well I think we found the problem. You are working with virtual outs where as Jman and I are working with real outs.

In the real outs system (you know reality) KQ has 6 outs and AA has 2 therefore KQ is a 3:1 favorite.

I dont personally study virtual outs because I play in real money. But I guess virtual outs would work for virtual money or play money.
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Old 09-22-2008, 10:56 AM   #416
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Originally Posted by Mikeal_DH View Post
someome makes a very small bet on flop and turn.I will call very small bets on flop and turn,to try and peel off a A or K on turn and river.If I hit I can play the turn and river.If I dont,I can make a value bluff,check,or fold on the river depending on what happens.
superb post. this dynamic river strategy is an example of the pioneering style that's made you one of the most feared freerollers of the era.
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Old 09-22-2008, 11:07 AM   #417
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

kq has 6 cards that makes its hand beta, aa only has 2. Plus its easy to make a st8 with kq. Give me a 6 outer with st8 draw over 2 outer any time
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Old 09-22-2008, 11:08 AM   #418
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

mike please further explain the concept of valuebluffing?

-chris
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Old 09-22-2008, 11:27 AM   #419
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Originally Posted by jasonfish11 View Post
Well I think we found the problem. You are working with virtual outs where as Jman and I are working with real outs.

In the real outs system (you know reality) KQ has 6 outs and AA has 2 therefore KQ is a 3:1 favorite.

I dont personally study virtual outs because I play in real money. But I guess virtual outs would work for virtual money or play money.
I agree! Real poker players play with Real outs for Real money. Unless we're fishing, then we play with reel outs.

Lee
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Old 09-22-2008, 11:30 AM   #420
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Originally Posted by jasonfish11 View Post
Well I think we found the problem. You are working with virtual outs where as Jman and I are working with real outs.

In the real outs system (you know reality) KQ has 6 outs and AA has 2 therefore KQ is a 3:1 favorite.

I dont personally study virtual outs because I play in real money. But I guess virtual outs would work for virtual money or play money.

They are only called "virtual" because OUTs usually refer to cards that help hands to improve.


But another ALTRENATE DEFINITION of OUTS: is any card that not only helps a hand to improve,but also any card that helps a hand to hold up and blocks outs of the other hand.

By the ALTERNATE DEFINITION of OUTS:ANY ANY ANY CARD CARD CARD that DOES NOT DOES NOT DOES NOT HELP KQ IS a CARD OUT that BLOCKS a KQ OUT and HELPS AA to HOLD UP and WIN.


So since even if KQ hits 1 of 6 outs to hit a K or Q,that doesnt help KQ win and AA is still ahead.


So according to that,KQ only really has 3 outs chance to win against AA.


Now if you take 52 cards subtract 18 dealt out cards at 9 hand table down to 34.Then subtract 5 board cards down to 29.subtract KQ's real 3 outs not 6 because of KQ needs to hit 2 of 6 outs to win,not just 1.down to 26. Subtract 3 more outs using the 2 4 system of outs.Down to 23.Subtract 2 burn cards down to 21


Thus AA has 21 card/outs according to the alternate definition of outs I put forth,that block outs of KQ,that dont help KQ to improve,and that helps AA to hold up and win, vs KQ's 3 outs instead of 6 outs because KQ has to hit 2 outs instead of just 1 out of 6 outs,and so really only has 3 outs.


21 > 3 3/21 3 divided by 21 = 14%(wow the virtual out system came pretty close to poker stove,sklansky,fergusson,Caro,etc etc)


Here is poker stove:


164,381,184 games 0.005 secs 32,876,236,800 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 86.074% 85.87% 00.21% 141152028 337086.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 13.926% 13.72% 00.21% 22554984 337086.00 { KQs, KQo }


Thus AA has 86% to win and KQ has 14% to win.


This is REAL MATH according to the VIRTUAL REAL OUTS according to the AlTERNATE DEFINITION OF OUTS I DEFINED.And its the same REAL MATH that POKERSTOVE,and SKLANSKY and CHRIS FERGUSSON and MIKE CARO USE.


Only a stubborn dogmatic idiot like you and Jman argues against this real math of pokerstove,sklansky chris fergusson mike caro,that wins billions of dollars in real money.


So after posting this post to clarify things to you.I am done.Its pointless to use logic and real correct math to prove u and jman wrong because of the stupid idiot moron dogmatic way to cling to your simple flawed math that stupidly moronically and idiotically argues against poker stove poker pros real math that wins billions in real money.


Mike DH
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Old 09-22-2008, 11:34 AM   #421
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

hmm, who to believe: jman, who has won millions and maybe tens of millions of dollars playing poker, or Mike, who hasn't made enough to escape freerolls after 5 years of playing.

hmmmmmmmm

also its pretty easy to understand 6>2, but Mike has never been good at understanding even simple things and uses convoluted reasoning to come up with bad plays.
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Old 09-22-2008, 11:36 AM   #422
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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So according to that,KQ only really has 3 outs chance to win against AA.
neh, KQ needs to hit a K or a Q first - then there are 5 outs left.

your making 3 combos, where there are more combos to take AA 'out'.
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Old 09-22-2008, 11:41 AM   #423
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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neh, KQ needs to hit a K or a Q first - then there are 5 outs left.

your making 3 combos, where there are more combos to take AA 'out'.
You are right I forgot they needed to hit 2x so. Basically you have 6 outs then another 5 outs for a total of 11 outs.

So KQ is 11:2 fav not 3:1.
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Old 09-22-2008, 11:48 AM   #424
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Originally Posted by jasonfish11 View Post
You are right I forgot they needed to hit 2x so. Basically you have 6 outs then another 5 outs for a total of 11 outs.

So KQ is 11:2 fav not 3:1.
here is where i disagree. if you are going to add the outs/count the outs twice for KQ then you have to add/count the outs twice for AA

so its (6+5)2+1) or 11:3
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Old 09-22-2008, 11:48 AM   #425
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Re: STOP OVERPLAYING POCKET PAIRS AND WHINING WHEN YOU LOSE WITH THEM!1!!1

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Originally Posted by ChristopherEucken View Post
mike please further explain the concept of valuebluffing?

-chris
A value bluff is similar to a value bet.A person bets for value when they might probably be good,but are not sure,and so be a small amount,hoping they get called,with them ahead and winning,and hoping they are not beat if they are called,while hoping they are not reraised and forced out.


A Value bluff is where you make a small Value bet/Value semi bluff,for different reasons of a value bet.When you Value semi bluff,you are not sure if you are ahead or not,and you might be behind,so you value semi bluff hoping that they fold,so that you can take the pot down without a showdown,and hoping that if they do call,that your not beat and that you were ahead and you win.


A value semi bluff is a win win thing because if they fold,you win the pot without a showdown.And if they call,they might call with a lesser hand that u still beat,thus you still win even if they call.


And if they call and you are beat,u only lose a small amount.So by value semi bluffing a small amount,you leverage the chance to win either way with only a small chance of losing and even if lose,only lose small amount.


also the poker books like the full tilt poker book talks about the concept of leverage making small bets that pros do or use.

Thats why the pros value semi bluff a lot.


Mike DH
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