Hey everybody - so I know this is usually a less-serious forum but I'm hoping to weed through all of that for some good, honest advice about my current skill level and future hopes to make poker a long term profession. (If this is the wrong spot, please let me know)

I quit my awful full time job in January to try poker professionally. I appreciate the freelance/freedom that poker brings so thought that this opportunity would be right up my alley. I've been playing on and off for about 15 years. I have an obsessive and competitive personality so I've probably studied, learned, read and watched thousands of hours of poker related content over that time span. This is untracked - but I'm probably up a meager 5k over that 15 years. Since tracking (January), and now midway through March, I appear to be a losing poker player at 200NL.

Here is my graph for the past 2 1/2 months:

https://imgur.com/a/GlSFQnN

Compared to some other players - my volume is lacking, but that's just because I've been spending a lot of time analyzing and studying PIO during this time. I've spent around 200 hours in PIO and feel my style is very close to a realistic GTO style (and getting better everyday)

But I'm still a losing poker player. My all-in adjusted value shows me as a winning player but that's not reality. There are two major dips between hands 4584-6875 and 6875-9167 that were due to tilt but for the most part, I'm pretty good on that regard.

What's alarming is that I've paid ~$2700 in rake and I'm down 9.72 buyins from what I should be. To me, that is some sick, sick injustice and it's making me strongly re-consider my future poker professional direction.

I'm making this post to ask honestly - is this just how poker is or am I missing something? If it's going to be like this - the swings, the run bad, the under realization of equity, the horrible rake... then this is not something that I want to do for a living. It's just not enough money at 200NL to make any difference and the stress, at a point where I really needed to start making some sort of income, is devastating.

I have one more graph to show JUST IN CASE there is something else I'm missing:

https://imgur.com/a/njaQmC5

That's an alarming redline and may be the reason I experience so many swings but the more I use PIO - the worse my redline becomes. So I think a positive redline occurs for people who overbluff.

I appreciate any comments, suggestions, encouragement or dead-smack realities that anyone chooses to share in this thread.

Thank you.

No one's a pro here, but come back when you've played 293,160 hands and we'll be happy to offer you our inexpert opinions. For starters, though, look into getting your red line up a bit. It doesn't have to be positive, just not so sharply negative.

You made 5k over 15 years in poker then decide to go pro. Sounds like a smart life choice. Don't know what site you are on, but yeah you ain't gonna go in cold and start beating 200nl with your level of experience. My advice to you would be to get at least a part-time job and then go from there. You are going to have to get some coaching, consider joining up to a training site etc. You are best off starting at 10nl. You would be a lot better off being a live pro, players are just a lot worse.

lets do a basic cost benefit analysis, if you had spent those "thousands of hours" working minimum wage (as i have derived from your op that is all you are able to earn while exerting maximum effort) how much more money would you have?

So you think the problem is ultimately a volume issue?

Your red line is pretty good actually, almost break even.

The red line doesn't even matter that much by itself though. Most spots that affect red:blue line ratio are ~0 EV bet/check or call/fold spots.

A lot more money than I have now lol

Can you tell me what you mean by break even? Is it because it's going in the general direction of the green line?

And I'm starting to believe that it doesn't matter much as well (though history of forum thought has told me otherwise)

People don't know how to even look at the red line properly.

If you are break even, it's logical that one line is gonna go negative and other one positive, there's really no other option (unless they are both exactly identical). I really don't know what people expect.

If you wanna see what a really "bad" red line looks like, you should check the graphs of some break even nits.

Quit at hand 1369 imo

OP play me hu4rollz PLO
I'm a crusher at 10NL, check my red line

Poker is a game about Social-Power dynamics

Think as it this way:

Let's say you are playing nl100 with a bunch of strangers. you just join that group. you chances of winning there are pretty low, no matter your "Skills"

Now let's say you are playing nl1k with your best friend, your girlfriend, your cousin, your father,..you are the one in the circle of power, in the center, ergo your chances of winning are way better than in that nl100 game.