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Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

07-04-2010 , 06:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomYumGoong
Why is the HEM EV wrong? I don't think they'd screw up such an easy calculation and not fix it.
I BELIEVE (not sure), that HEM does it like this, if I lose 4 $200s (-800), and then win 1 $1k, I have a positive ROI ($200 profit on $1800 in buyins), so 11% ROI or whatever.

And sharkscope does it so that I would have a negative ROI in that same scenario, because it's average ROI, -100%, -100%, -100%, +98.9% or whatever it is in the STs.

So there isnt really a way to say which is better or worse, but IMO sharkscope is alot more useful, because in HEM you could win only 42% of your games and have a nice positive ROI by running hot higher. Which to be fair IS accurate, cause you do have a positive return on your investment. But SS is still a better guage, especially for a bet like this (IMO), so thats the one we're using, otherwise if I ran bad at 1ks it would make 350s pointless (using HEM), and if I ran good at 1ks I could just play 350s at -1% ROI for the last 1k games or whatever and still hit my mark
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-04-2010 , 06:47 PM
dream start for Primo, continued gl.
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-04-2010 , 08:44 PM
ok thanks, makes sense. gl
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-04-2010 , 09:53 PM
holy ***** boomswitch
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 01:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cjay142
jeez cant even keep up that roi @ turbo husngs @ 1/10th the buy-in.

good luck w/ the bet primo, also gl w/ the wsop
The rake is higher at the low stakes, since the edges are small that is a huge thing. General consensus is that the lower skill level about makes up for the higher rake at low stakes at an even rate, so primo would probably have about the same ROI in your stakes.
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 01:37 AM
I wouldn't have risked $20k after seeing these stats on top shark:

PrimordialAA NA
Full Tilt Poker 788 $29.20 8% $23,010.00 $355.00 55.0% 434/354 0.0% 0.0% NL Hold'em 355<=Buy-In<=355 x
PrimordialAA NA
Full Tilt Poker 1649 $19.47 3% $32,106.00 $506.00 52.0% 871/778 0.0% 0.0% NL Hold'em 506<=Buy-In<=506 x
PrimordialAA NA
Full Tilt Poker 1636 $44.01 4% $71,993.00 $1,011.00 52.0% 864/772 0.0% 0.0% NL Hold'em 1011<=Buy-In<=1011
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 04:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by realsheesha
I wouldn't have risked $20k after seeing these stats on top shark:

PrimordialAA NA
Full Tilt Poker 788 $29.20 8% $23,010.00 $355.00 55.0% 434/354 0.0% 0.0% NL Hold'em 355<=Buy-In<=355 x
PrimordialAA NA
Full Tilt Poker 1649 $19.47 3% $32,106.00 $506.00 52.0% 871/778 0.0% 0.0% NL Hold'em 506<=Buy-In<=506 x
PrimordialAA NA
Full Tilt Poker 1636 $44.01 4% $71,993.00 $1,011.00 52.0% 864/772 0.0% 0.0% NL Hold'em 1011<=Buy-In<=1011
yea, not sure this tracks everything either, think they may be a bit diff. on SS, not sure if better or worse, but a bit diff. or sample sizes a bit diff. iirc
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 07:55 AM
continued excellent start:


356 $101 $746 10% $35,997 (3 chops)





HEM has me: ROI: 13.1% , EV-ROI: 5.2%
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 09:00 AM
so sick
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 09:31 AM
unbeleivable how good u r running
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 10:34 AM
grosssss
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 10:57 AM
y did i bet vs you

Spoiler:
IN B4 MASSIVE DOWNSWONGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 12:12 PM
wow sick bet. nothing like a super heater to start a prop bet

Good luck op

popcorn.gif
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 12:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by _MAGiC_
y did i bet vs you

Spoiler:
IN B4 MASSIVE DOWNSWONGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!
Shhhhhhhhhh... Oven is turned to broil, lets leave it that way...
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 12:56 PM
brutal
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 01:34 PM
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 03:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by _MAGiC_
y did i bet vs you
mwahaha
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 03:49 PM
nice bet
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 05:09 PM
Wow you're a sick human being
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 07:24 PM
Epic thread in the making. GL primo
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 07:27 PM
Awesome start..but guys who bet against him it's too early to worry because these games have sick variance...although if there are people that can do it Primo is most likely one of them.
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 07:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by _MAGiC_
y did i bet vs you

Spoiler:
IN B4 MASSIVE DOWNSWONGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!
classsicccccc mistake, this is obv gonna trigger another 125 games of God mode ;p, you obvvvv dont learn
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 07:45 PM
also thx everyone else , playing the main Wed. so will prolly slow down how much I play alot throughout the next few days after that (assuming I dont busto day 1 again). But then will get into serious grind mode later in July, and try to pump out a bunch of 100-200 game days, will keep ya updated, gl all =]
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote
07-05-2010 , 11:24 PM
jfc. I wish I had a piece of you in the main, runnin like this. **** .

GL man. Hope it keeps up.
Prop Bet:  PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games Quote

      
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