Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games - Page 2

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Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

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06-30-2010 , 12:38 PM

#26

pokurz

adept

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 913

Will you be posting updates ITT?

Quote

06-30-2010 , 12:46 PM

#27

PrimordialAA

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 11,673

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokurz

Will you be posting updates ITT?

yea, will be, daily or bi-daily

Quote

06-30-2010 , 12:47 PM

#28

NthingToLose

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,398

Sick.. 2:1 line is very tempting though. Seems like variance alone makes those odds juicy but if this guy is so damn smart he could be like 3 levels above in this bet lol

I'd take 50-100 on primordial's side if anyone is interested.

Quote

06-30-2010 , 12:52 PM

#29

HokieGreg

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 4,726

lol at this being easy.

there are prob <5 people in the world that could maintain a >3% roi over a 2k+ sample in ST's (primo being one of them imo).

i think its a really tough bet. will be rooting for you primo.

Quote

06-30-2010 , 12:58 PM

#30

NthingToLose

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,398

Quote:

Originally Posted by NthingToLose

Or Prim you up for me sending you 50 or 100 today and just selling a small portion of your action? If we lose you pay the people you owe money to and we win you send me my share. I like your side even tho I agree no way is this easy obv.

Quote

06-30-2010 , 01:03 PM

#31

PrimordialAA

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 11,673

sry dont want to sell any of my action, but there should be plenty of people willing to book against me. Although the bet is now under-way, so that may skew odds. I'll post an update in next 2 days

Quote

06-30-2010 , 01:04 PM

#32

Borg7

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 1,333

Quote:

Originally Posted by Larry Legend

does not compute....

does not compute

Quote

06-30-2010 , 01:04 PM

#33

mersenneary

Food = Love

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 12,187

can vouch for both parties being legit, no shenanigans will happen here.

I've played about 5k of these with a 2% ROI. It's really difficult to know what your true winrate is though: In 5k games, you can expect KK v. AA, what, two times? Very wide distribution of equity (not just all-in luck). Primo's results as well as mine/spamz's/others bode well for Primo, but plenty of other very good players have had negative results in this, so it's hard to say. I'll be rooting for Primo.

Last edited by mersenneary; 06-30-2010 at 01:05 PM. Reason: plagiarism from skates in some of this reasoning

Quote

06-30-2010 , 01:08 PM

#34

noidea555

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 4,927

I always wondered where I know your name from because I see it all the time on top of the RTR rake races lol. Now I know.

Best of luck to the both of you.

Quote

06-30-2010 , 01:17 PM

#35

TeddyKGB45

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 3,136

Anyone want to make a small bet for? I am thinking your 100 v my 200. Will need escrow, PM for details

edit: did not see the bet has already started, have no idea how OP is doing

Quote

06-30-2010 , 01:30 PM

#36

NthingToLose

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,398

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKGB45

Anyone want to make a small bet for? I am thinking your 100 v my 200. Will need escrow, PM for details

edit: did not see the bet has already started, have no idea how OP is doing

Will take this action. PM'd u

Quote

06-30-2010 , 01:35 PM

#37

cftw

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 2,284

didn't skates get a huge trading job that paid almost a million (or more?) a year?

Quote

06-30-2010 , 01:36 PM

#38

KarlizL

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 2,624

anyone willing to bet? I'll bet FOR Primodil, so my $250 against your $500

Quote

06-30-2010 , 01:40 PM

#39

Regret$

burnt out

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 12,124

Under what conditions are you allowed to chop?

GL

Quote

06-30-2010 , 02:10 PM

#40

quiquiriqui

09 HUNL Forum Champ

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 2,916

Quote:

Originally Posted by _MAGiC_

I'll bet my $100 against ur $50 against Primo (on Skates' side)

as in:

< 3% you win 50

> 3% i win 100

correct?

anybody i know down for a micro escrow?

Quote

06-30-2010 , 02:25 PM

#41

Vanilla Thunder

NVG All-Star

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 16,783

will be following, good luck

Quote

06-30-2010 , 02:25 PM

#42

PrimordialAA

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 11,673

Quote:

Originally Posted by Regret$

Under what conditions are you allowed to chop?

GL

will only be chopping when I same time sit w/friends for the most part, but regardless, the chops are just discarded from the sample. There wont be an excessive amount of chops, i'll announce it every time I do one (there has been one so far w/P_S_L as posted in the other thread), and I can give HHs for the chop games or something, so it can be seen that it wasnt liked played out and then decided to chop or anything

Quote

06-30-2010 , 02:44 PM

#43

kwedaras

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 345

gl primo

Quote

06-30-2010 , 02:50 PM

#44

PrimordialAA

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 11,673

First 107 games (1 chop, not taken out yet)

-1.8% ROI
$682.13 avg stake
EV-ROI: 6.2%

edit: here is SS graph as well, so not as to just have my own HEM to verify:

Quote

06-30-2010 , 03:08 PM

#45

NthingToLose

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,398

Quote:

Originally Posted by bbbushu

as in:

< 3% you win 50

> 3% i win 100

correct?

anybody i know down for a micro escrow?

This is not correct.
<3%+ wins 100
>3% wins 50

Quote

06-30-2010 , 03:23 PM

#46

ItTollsForThee

adept

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 790

Watched some of your games today against poker[something]### (can't remember the numbers or his name). You won 3 $1011's right? I saw he sat at a $355 table afterwards, how come you didn't play him some more at the lower level?

Quote

06-30-2010 , 03:37 PM

#47

Joe Pulaski

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 8,346

haha i love bets where you could have like a 9 roi or like a -5

Quote

06-30-2010 , 03:43 PM

#48

quiquiriqui

09 HUNL Forum Champ

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 2,916

Quote:

Originally Posted by NthingToLose

This is not correct.
<3%+ wins 100
>3% wins 50

k well i'm lookin to bet on primo. i understand he is getting 2:1 (as in 2$ if he wins the bet for every 1$ if he loses the bet) on his money for this bet and those are the odds i want as well.

i'll put up 50 if someone wants to pay me 100 when primo wins