Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games - Page 13

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Prop Bet: PrimordialAA - 3% in Full Tilt HU STs for next 2k Games

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Page 13 of 35

First

3 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 23 33

Last

07-14-2010 , 04:50 PM

#301

suchsickaments

banned

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 5,437

33<AA on 37922?

Quote

07-14-2010 , 04:54 PM

#302

d0nk3y

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 3,185

Quote:

Originally Posted by suchsickaments

33<AA on 37922?

Yeah that hand makes zero sense.

Quote

07-14-2010 , 05:02 PM

#303

NthingToLose

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,398

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigBadJonV

From his twitter:

"Flat raise/call/call with 33, flop 3 7 9 2 2 clubs, I c/r to 150k, turn AC, I bet/call (490), he has AA, I lose 1.55M pot"

I believe it was was 379A2 with two clubs before the Ac. 100% that villan had AA with A on board for set over set

Quote

07-14-2010 , 05:04 PM

#304

uhhiraiseu

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 85

Bet more on flop next time?

Quote

07-14-2010 , 05:12 PM

#305

TeddyKGB45

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 3,136

fold pre imo

Quote

07-15-2010 , 03:32 AM

#306

PrimordialAA

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 11,673

Ended w/805k, on to day 6

Quote

07-15-2010 , 03:49 AM

#307

Rovert40

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 18

"Hanging around.....HANGING around......kid's got alligator blood; can't get rid of him."

Well done, sir.

Quote

07-15-2010 , 09:44 AM

#308

MicroSNGDonkey

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,331

I think skates is going to look like a genius at the end, no offence OP

Quote

07-15-2010 , 10:01 AM

#309

Nichlemn

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 9,478

Quote:

Originally Posted by MicroSNGDonkey

I think skates is going to look like a genius at the end, no offence OP

Prop bet?

Quote

07-15-2010 , 10:35 AM

#310

MicroSNGDonkey

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,331

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nichlemn

Prop bet?

since he's ahead of pace what kind of odds you giving?

Quote

07-15-2010 , 10:44 AM

#311

Nichlemn

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 9,478

Quote:

Originally Posted by MicroSNGDonkey

since he's ahead of pace what kind of odds you giving?

3:1

Quote

07-15-2010 , 10:55 AM

#312

MicroSNGDonkey

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,331

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nichlemn

3:1

If I can get an exact update on where he is I may consider that

Quote

07-15-2010 , 11:15 AM

#313

Nichlemn

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 9,478

Quote:

Originally Posted by PrimordialAA

another 'meh' day, got in 50 games tho, but ran pretty bad today IMO, just a ton of coolers of guys floating air constantly and hitting perfect, oh well, was due for some run bad

625 $92 $769 9% $57,615 (3 chops)

HEM has me: ROI: 11.7% , EV-ROI: 4.4%

No games since then according to Sharkscope.

Quote

07-15-2010 , 11:23 AM

#314

MicroSNGDonkey

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,331

so he has a 4.4% ROI at 625/2000 right?

Quote

07-15-2010 , 11:26 AM

#315

phishman

Booty Connoisseur

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 11,646

11.7

Quote

07-15-2010 , 11:28 AM

#316

Oenzo

old hand

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 1,768

Quote:

Originally Posted by MicroSNGDonkey

so he has a 4.4% ROI at 625/2000 right?

no...sharkscope has him at 9%, HEM has 11.4% with an EV ROI of 4.4...basically hes running hot and crushing, but even if he was running ~at EV he would still be ahead in the bet

Quote

07-15-2010 , 11:29 AM

#317

Nichlemn

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 9,478

Unless I've mistaken how the bet works, he has an 11.7% ROI to date. However, his ROI adjusted for all-in EV is 4.4%, which doesn't matter for the bet outcome but gives a better idea about how lucky he's been getting.

Quote

07-15-2010 , 11:34 AM

#318

MicroSNGDonkey

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,331

Ohh I thought he had a 4% ROI nvm I misread obv. sorry i cabnt bet like that obv as I had it all wrong, sorry to derail thread primo

Quote

07-15-2010 , 11:40 AM

#319

GingerJono

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 27

So breaking even for the next 1375 games would win the bet, amirite?

Quote

07-15-2010 , 11:50 AM

#320

People_Mover

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 5,185

PRIMO GONNA SHIP THE MF MAIN EVENT WOOT

Quote

07-15-2010 , 11:56 AM

#321

ashipsomewhere

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,282

oh damn good luck should be interesting

Quote

07-15-2010 , 01:11 PM

#322

PrimordialAA

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 11,673

Quote:

Originally Posted by MicroSNGDonkey

I think skates is going to look like a genius at the end, no offence OP

hope your wrong

and as state before, for terms of the bet, sharkscope ROI is what is used (average_ROI) rather than HEM ROI (pure ROI $ made per $ invested), the difference is sharkscope ROI is based on winrate, HEM ROI is effected hugely by running hot or poor at the higher stakes