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Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only

10-09-2010 , 07:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ItsOnlyChips
u capable of playing much more volume or these games just dont run that often?
what longy said
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-09-2010 , 08:14 PM
Thats why I went back to PS, that and VIP is better imo

Last edited by IamPro; 10-09-2010 at 08:14 PM. Reason: cookie basket too :D
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-09-2010 , 08:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Langerdang
So what were the realistic odds for this bet? Like 4-1?
Not sure I would have gone in for 4-1, there is enough variance over a month to just run like the sun.

I would have given Flettl 2-1.

So maybeeeee 3-1.
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-09-2010 , 08:21 PM
I think its def still possible, he just needs to put in the volume in and hope

Last edited by IamPro; 10-09-2010 at 08:21 PM. Reason: but thats SNGs for u ;)
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-09-2010 , 08:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Langerdang
So what were the realistic odds for this bet? Like 4-1?
tbh I still don't see how this bet is all that hard, I mean by BBV standards where usually you guys **** a brick if someone mentions >= 3:1 lol. I was even more surpirsed my some regs saying it was impossible. Let's do some simple math:

For simplification suppose I play 3k games, 30% $75s and 70% $26s at 15% ROI for both.

For the $75s:
(900 games)x($75)x(0.15 ROI) = $10,125
rakeback:
(900 games)x($6 paid rake)x(0.27 rakeback) = $1,458

For the $26s:
(2100 games)x($26)x(0.15 ROI) = $8,190
rakeback:
(2100 games)x($2 paid rake)x(0.27 rakeback) = $1,134
---------------------------------------------------------

Addding all this up gives you about $21k. That's $7/game. Before this bet started I was averaging about $8/game with rakeback.

So given my track record I thought nobody would take > 2:1, but I now have learned it's better to start high and go down then start low lol, ah well I'm dumb.

Also /OP's rant trying to convince everyone he's not a total ****** for trying this bet.
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-09-2010 , 08:54 PM
keep ya head up
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-09-2010 , 09:22 PM
Ha, given Flettl has laid out his rough maths why 20k was a reasonable goal.

I actually thought 3k would be the most games he would get in, given the effects of playing 100 day after day. Leaderboards winner this year have been getting in just over 2k.

I am not convinced 15% is realistic these days at the 75's. Try 10% long term, i am sure someone will come along with an amazing roi but the sample size will probs too small and a lot of the game will have been played more than 6 months ago, when the games were noticeable easier or playing less than 16 tables at a time etc. 26's yeah I think high teens/low 20's is realistic.

All this on top of the fact that the grind of playing so many tournies in a short space of time, normally drops people's rois considerably. No one can play as well playing after 2000 tournies in 20 days compared to playing fresh when you feel like it.

I really rate Flettl as a player, but just all of the above is why imo this prop is so hard.
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-11-2010 , 09:57 PM
Did you finally strat running g00t?

Full Tilt Poker $24 + $2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t400/t800 Blinds - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Hero (UTG): t5870 7.34 BBs
dryoungman (UTG+1): t11259 14.07 BBs
THE__D__RY (MP1): t6464 8.08 BBs
Hodge118 (MP2): t6559 8.20 BBs
darval (CO): t16854 21.07 BBs
flettl2 (BTN): t7230 9.04 BBs
gokker007 (SB): t5929 7.41 BBs
EpicFail (BB): t7335 9.17 BBs

Pre Flop: (t1200) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to t5870 all in, 4 folds, flettl2 raises to t7230 all in, 2 folds

Flop: (t12940) 8 2 9

Turn: (t12940) Q

River: (t12940) 2

Final Pot: t12940
Hero shows A A (two pair, Aces and Twos)
flettl2 shows Q Q (a full house, Queens full of Twos)
flettl2 wins t12940
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-12-2010 , 12:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBadr
Did you finally strat running g00t?

Full Tilt Poker $24 + $2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t400/t800 Blinds - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Hero (UTG): t5870 7.34 BBs
dryoungman (UTG+1): t11259 14.07 BBs
THE__D__RY (MP1): t6464 8.08 BBs
Hodge118 (MP2): t6559 8.20 BBs
darval (CO): t16854 21.07 BBs
flettl2 (BTN): t7230 9.04 BBs
gokker007 (SB): t5929 7.41 BBs
EpicFail (BB): t7335 9.17 BBs

Pre Flop: (t1200) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to t5870 all in, 4 folds, flettl2 raises to t7230 all in, 2 folds

Flop: (t12940) 8 2 9

Turn: (t12940) Q

River: (t12940) 2

Final Pot: t12940
Hero shows A A (two pair, Aces and Twos)
flettl2 shows Q Q (a full house, Queens full of Twos)
flettl2 wins t12940
lol I was expecting something in the chat box about that one...see you saved it for 2p2.
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-12-2010 , 12:54 PM
oh and the answer is no, after day 11:

Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-12-2010 , 01:14 PM
lol, I actually found it amusing, been running really bad and it's not like you could ever fold QQ there. Sorry to see you're running bad as well. Keep your chin up buddy. All you need is a mega heater and it could happen any time.
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-12-2010 , 09:12 PM
Keep up OP. Tho I don't wanna lose the bet, I really hope u make a nice profit outta this.
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-12-2010 , 10:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Muggleborn
Hohoho flettl u the man
I think you forgot to add this image to your post

Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-13-2010 , 01:17 PM
After 12 days:



I think it's pretty safe to say I'm screwed now lol gg. I will still be putting in the volume though to try for FT leaderboard.
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-13-2010 , 01:43 PM
inb4 super mega BOOOOOOOOOMSWITCH
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-13-2010 , 02:09 PM
Makes me feel better that bodeye2 is going through a rough patch too. If he wasn't I'd have no chance at leaderboard.
flettl2 = bodeye2?

Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-13-2010 , 02:28 PM
Cool bet, good luck with the rest, I'll follow for sure.
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-13-2010 , 03:36 PM
Bad time to have your worst downswing ever
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-13-2010 , 05:19 PM
It's not just you, I can't remember the last time i had a losing month and it looks like this is going to be one if things don't turn around fairly soon
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-13-2010 , 05:25 PM
Sick ****... OP, u think games just got a lot tougher lately or is this just variance that could have happened before?
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-14-2010 , 04:47 PM
op not playing today?
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-14-2010 , 05:05 PM
After 13 days

Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-14-2010 , 05:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WOLVER1NE
Sick ****... OP, u think games just got a lot tougher lately or is this just variance that could have happened before?
I've only been playing the 45mans for 6 months so I dunno if games can get drastically tougher in that time. I'm sure there's some correlation to me never working 10hrs a day before, and the added pressure of a prop bet increasing my frequency to tilt, but I havn't found it too bad so that shouldn't be a huge factor.
I guess the 5k games I previously played was failry smooth sailing, the worst of it being 1k b/e stretches and $5k downswings. Looks like now I have a -$7k downswing. Pretty sick time to have it, I was pretty pissed at first but now I just laugh it off. It's funny how poker works sometimes lol .
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-14-2010 , 05:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokersith
op not playing today?
Just started, had a late night last night after leafs went 3-0 to start the season... we got a little carried away.
I'll probably play 5pm-1am today. I'm going to start playing 8hrs a day instead of 10 for a while. I don't think the long hrs were bothering me at all actually, which I'm really happy about since now I know I can be a grinding machine if I need/want to.
I acknowledge the bet is near impossible to complete now, so instead of chasing losses and losing my mind grinding I'm going to scale back a bit, focus more and regain my confidence. Hopefully that will parlay us all into having a good month lol.
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote
10-15-2010 , 12:56 AM
nice upsw0ng
Prop bet: k in Oct. 45mans only Quote

      
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