So what were the realistic odds for this bet? Like 4-1?
tbh I still don't see how this bet is all that hard, I mean by BBV standards where usually you guys **** a brick if someone mentions >= 3:1 lol. I was even more surpirsed my some regs saying it was impossible. Let's do some simple math:
For simplification suppose I play 3k games, 30% $75s and 70% $26s at 15% ROI for both.
For the $75s:
(900 games)x($75)x(0.15 ROI) = $10,125
(900 games)x($6 paid rake)x(0.27 rakeback) = $1,458
For the $26s:
(2100 games)x($26)x(0.15 ROI) = $8,190
(2100 games)x($2 paid rake)x(0.27 rakeback) = $1,134
Addding all this up gives you about $21k. That's $7/game. Before this bet started I was averaging about $8/game with rakeback.
So given my track record I thought nobody would take > 2:1, but I now have learned it's better to start high and go down then start low lol, ah well I'm dumb.
Also /OP's rant trying to convince everyone he's not a total ****** for trying this bet.
Ha, given Flettl has laid out his rough maths why 20k was a reasonable goal.
I actually thought 3k would be the most games he would get in, given the effects of playing 100 day after day. Leaderboards winner this year have been getting in just over 2k.
I am not convinced 15% is realistic these days at the 75's. Try 10% long term, i am sure someone will come along with an amazing roi but the sample size will probs too small and a lot of the game will have been played more than 6 months ago, when the games were noticeable easier or playing less than 16 tables at a time etc. 26's yeah I think high teens/low 20's is realistic.
All this on top of the fact that the grind of playing so many tournies in a short space of time, normally drops people's rois considerably. No one can play as well playing after 2000 tournies in 20 days compared to playing fresh when you feel like it.
I really rate Flettl as a player, but just all of the above is why imo this prop is so hard.
lol, I actually found it amusing, been running really bad and it's not like you could ever fold QQ there. Sorry to see you're running bad as well. Keep your chin up buddy. All you need is a mega heater and it could happen any time.
Sick ****... OP, u think games just got a lot tougher lately or is this just variance that could have happened before?
I've only been playing the 45mans for 6 months so I dunno if games can get drastically tougher in that time. I'm sure there's some correlation to me never working 10hrs a day before, and the added pressure of a prop bet increasing my frequency to tilt, but I havn't found it too bad so that shouldn't be a huge factor.
I guess the 5k games I previously played was failry smooth sailing, the worst of it being 1k b/e stretches and $5k downswings. Looks like now I have a -$7k downswing. Pretty sick time to have it, I was pretty pissed at first but now I just laugh it off. It's funny how poker works sometimes lol .
Just started, had a late night last night after leafs went 3-0 to start the season... we got a little carried away.
I'll probably play 5pm-1am today. I'm going to start playing 8hrs a day instead of 10 for a while. I don't think the long hrs were bothering me at all actually, which I'm really happy about since now I know I can be a grinding machine if I need/want to.
I acknowledge the bet is near impossible to complete now, so instead of chasing losses and losing my mind grinding I'm going to scale back a bit, focus more and regain my confidence. Hopefully that will parlay us all into having a good month lol.