Is it possible to maintain this winrate? - Poker Beats Brags and Variance

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Is it possible to maintain this winrate?

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06-27-2022 , 05:53 PM

The_Admiral

old hand

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,468

So I've played around 13,000 hands of 5nl to ease myself into cash games, I've not played for a while. Many years ago I used to play a lot of higher stakes STTs but cash seems to fit more around the demands of family life.

I'm currently running at 23BBS/100 which according to this (online advice) is more than double what I could realistically expect. Maybe it's because it's 6max that the win rate is higher? Could just be running well.

Would appreciate thoughts? Is 13,000 hands just nothing in variance terms?

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06-28-2022 , 12:32 PM

ejames209

veteran

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 2,983

yeah 13,000 is extremely small, though 23bb/100 is at least high enough to where I'd say you're most likely a winning player at your current level

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07-01-2022 , 04:40 AM

Jugador Mundial

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 113

With that sample size, there about a 97% chance your true win rate is greater than 5.4 bb/100 assuming typical 100 bb stack sizes and normal NL play. The actual number will vary based on your standard deviation.

(If you were playing deep your standard deviation would be higher and the probability of having a true win rate greater than any specified constant would decrease.)

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07-01-2022 , 12:33 PM

The_Admiral

old hand

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,468

Thank you!

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