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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

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Old 07-12-2020, 10:39 PM   #1
AJHPoker
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Poker is not dead but its killing me

***Disclaimer: This post is about half venting and half mental game discussion. If you do not enjoy either or cant handle a small amount of "Woe is me" you may want to skip this one***

So for a while I was actually one of those people on the "Poker is dead" Bandwagon simply because I was not playing well. Since then I have worked on my game rigorously (Thank you corona virus layoff) and all of a sudden I was making money hand over fist simply by playing tighter and waiting for good spots. I do admit I was on somewhat of a hot streak but nothing crazy as I was almost always ahead while putting the money in. Life was good, Bank Roll was growing and then......

BAM I all of a sudden started losing money. Ok no problem this is poker after all and it will turn up in a couple days. Days go by and I am trying to just put in quality hands and I started noticing that I was not losing like in the past where I would call down wide here, bad bluff there, occasional bad beats but I never really payed attention to the bad beats due to me having so many other things to work on.

Well this time around I seem to be getting my money in good an overwhelming part of them time with 70%. I have read several books on the mental game of poker from several authors and I have a full understanding of percentages and that over the long term everything will settle in.

BUT WOW I never thought that It would be like this just when I finally am getting into the real swing of the game and my play has vastly improved.

Now I seem to go AK against QQ a lot and win or lose the hand is what it is and I have no issue. Running KK against AA also is just part of the game in my head and although it really sucks.... What can you do right?

But the thing that really tilts me is watching how absolutely AWFUL these players are and play and they DEMOLISH me with their T6o after cold calling my 4BB Open raise. The thing is that the games im playing in are insanely juicy and I could not be happier with the player pool. They seem to be super nitty or have absolutely no idea what a starting hand chart is.

Im at a crossroads here of "Is this how poker is?" and "I cant stop now because eventually Equity will correct itself and I will run ABOVE EV for a equal length of time".

This is leading me to question if the skill edge in poker is enough to make it a large portion of my life and put my all into it. Can I continue to play these mega fish and walk away at best slightly up or at worst down 5+ Buy ins or is there a pot of gold at the end of this rainbow that a player who plays good solid fundamental poker with just enough bluffs to keep your opponents in a calling mood?

I by no means believe I am amazing but I can confidently say now that I am dominating the player pool at my stakes (10nl and 20nl) and somehow I am barely treading water. I understand that hypothetically if I continue to play and I continue to get it in as a 75% favorite I should turn it around but I am begging to question if or how many hands "Even out is"

Final Questions:
1 - Have you guys had extended downswings? How many BI's in about how long
2 - How did you react? Did you play through and continue to get kicked in the balls until poker decided to stop? Did you take a break?
3 - What is your mental process after taking a bad beat other than "If you didnt feed the fish they wouldnt play". Do you run the equity and say "I won $x.xx that hand even though I didnt win this time?
4 - Is there any resource online that shows on average how many hands need to be played to "average out EV" or is that an unknown thing or is the number so huge that most of us will never be able to play that many hands.


***Again I dont expect any aggressive or nasty comments about "OH MY GOD another fish talking about bad beats" as I gave you a nice disclaimer at the top**
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Old 07-13-2020, 01:50 AM   #2
Colin_Piddle
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Re: Poker is not dead but its killing me

If your as good as you say you just ride the wave of variance. Fold a few more rivers as well. People always overcall on the river.
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Old 07-13-2020, 02:35 AM   #3
Haanski
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Re: Poker is not dead but its killing me

Agree with Colin, you just have to ride the wave. Downswings can last anywhere from a month to a year... and a downswing could be just breaking even or slightly losing for a really solid player.

Just keep chipping away, you might have to tread water for years before you show the profit you are looking for (that is if you are on the unlucky side of variance). Which is one of the reasons why not many people can make a living off of it, it isn't because they aren't skilled enough, it is because they aren't patient enough to endure the seemingly never ending losing/break even stretches.
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Old 07-13-2020, 09:52 AM   #4
Morphismus
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Re: Poker is not dead but its killing me

Nice thread title!
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Old 07-13-2020, 06:03 PM   #5
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Re: Poker is not dead but its killing me

I would never read this ****

You are not as good as piddlenator said

Your thread title is ****


**** you op
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Old 07-13-2020, 10:49 PM   #6
AlwaysFolding
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Re: Poker is not dead but its killing me

Fran is in a mood, it must be his period. Calm down!
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Old 07-14-2020, 06:07 AM   #7
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Re: Poker is not dead but its killing me

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlwaysFolding View Post
Fran is in a mood, it must be his period. Calm down!

Shut your mouse.
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Old 07-14-2020, 11:17 AM   #8
orb_dam_u
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Re: Poker is not dead but its killing me

If they call your 4x BB raise with T6o you must be seen as a big fish to them who pays off whenever they hit a hand. There's some very solid advice given in this thread about folding more rivers. Poker is easy if you learn to fold more rivers.
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Old 07-14-2020, 09:17 PM   #9
Haanski
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Re: Poker is not dead but its killing me

Quote:
Originally Posted by orb_dam_u View Post
If they call your 4x BB raise with T6o you must be seen as a big fish to them who pays off whenever they hit a hand. There's some very solid advice given in this thread about folding more rivers. Poker is easy if you learn to fold more rivers.
I like that line... but I think folding pre-deposit is the best play here.
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Old 07-20-2020, 06:56 AM   #10
GreekDaGrinD
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Poker is not dead but its killing me

PokerBros - $0.6 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 108.9 BB
BB: 102.78 BB
UTG: 200 BB
CO: 249.98 BB
BTN: 271.1 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, CO calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 5 BB, BB calls 4 BB, CO raises to 15 BB, Hero raises to 34.5 BB, fold, CO calls 19.5 BB

Flop: (74 BB, 2 players) 5 Q 6
Hero checks, CO bets 215.48 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 74.4 BB and is all-in

Turn: (222.8 BB, 2 players) A

River: (222.8 BB, 2 players) 2

Hero shows Q Q (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 68%, Flop 93%, Turn 84%)
CO shows K 7 (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 32%, Flop 7%, Turn 16%)
CO wins 217.4 BB

PokerBros - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 210.24 BB
BTN: 123.43 BB
SB: 13.35 BB
BB: 140.94 BB
UTG: 109.27 BB
MP: 138.98 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8 8

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) A 4 8
MP bets 4.5 BB, Hero calls 4.5 BB

Turn: (16.5 BB, 2 players) T
MP bets 13.5 BB, Hero raises to 40.5 BB, MP raises to 131.48 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 90.98 BB

River: (279.46 BB, 2 players) 9

Hero shows 8 8 (Three of a Kind, Eights)
(Pre 20%, Flop 9%, Turn 2%)
MP shows A A (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 80%, Flop 91%, Turn 98%)
MP wins 275.21 BB

PokerBros - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 109.72 BB
BB: 142.11 BB
UTG: 100 BB
CO: 98.38 BB
BTN: 120 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

fold, CO calls 1 BB, BTN raises to 4 BB, Hero raises to 16 BB, fold, fold, BTN raises to 120 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 93.72 BB and is all-in

Flop: (221.44 BB, 2 players) 5 8 J

Turn: (221.44 BB, 2 players) A

River: (221.44 BB, 2 players) 5

Hero shows K K (Two Pair, Kings and Fives)
(Pre 67%, Flop 80%, Turn 5%)
BTN shows 5 A (Full House, Fives full of Aces)
(Pre 33%, Flop 20%, Turn 95%)
BTN wins 217.19 BB

PokerBros - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): 106.38 BB
CO: 47.5 BB
BTN: 193.87 BB
SB: 150 BB
BB: 484.32 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 6

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to 9 BB, Hero calls 6.5 BB

Flop: (18.5 BB, 2 players) 6 9 7
BB bets 9 BB, Hero raises to 27.5 BB, BB calls 18.5 BB

Turn: (73.5 BB, 2 players) A
BB checks, Hero bets 69.88 BB and is all-in, BB calls 69.88 BB

River: (213.26 BB, 2 players) Q

Hero shows 7 6 (Two Pair, Sevens and Sixes)
(Pre 23%, Flop 69%, Turn 64%)
BB shows Q Q (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 77%, Flop 31%, Turn 36%)
BB wins 209.01 BB

PokerBros - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 106.94 BB
MP: 55.77 BB
CO: 150 BB
BTN: 134.8 BB
SB: 217.21 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

UTG raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 3.5 BB, Hero raises to 16 BB, UTG raises to 43.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 100 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 56.5 BB

Flop: (204 BB, 2 players) 2 6 A

Turn: (204 BB, 2 players) 3

River: (204 BB, 2 players) J

Hero shows Q Q (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 82%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)
UTG shows J J (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 18%, Flop 13%, Turn 5%)
UTG wins 199.75 BB

PokerBros - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 100.5 BB
CO: 121.27 BB
BTN: 305.61 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T T

fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, BTN raises to 305.61 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 88 BB and is all-in

Flop: (201 BB, 2 players) A 7 J

Turn: (201 BB, 2 players) 8

River: (201 BB, 2 players) K

Hero shows T T (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 81%, Flop 16%, Turn 14%)
BTN shows 7 7 (Three of a Kind, Sevens)
(Pre 19%, Flop 84%, Turn 86%)
BTN wins 196.75 BB

PokerBros - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 127.85 BB
CO: 62.55 BB
BTN: 92.02 BB
SB: 200 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

CO calls 1 BB, BTN raises to 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, BTN calls 9 BB, fold

Flop: (28 BB, 2 players) 2 7 3
Hero bets 13.5 BB, BTN calls 13.5 BB

Turn: (55 BB, 2 players) J
Hero bets 27 BB, BTN raises to 66.52 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 39.52 BB

River: (188.04 BB, 2 players) 9

Hero shows K K (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 82%, Flop 92%, Turn 5%)
BTN shows J J (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 18%, Flop 8%, Turn 95%)
BTN wins 183.79 BB

PokerBros - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP): 100 BB
CO: 136.75 BB
BTN: 102.8 BB
SB: 151.69 BB
BB: 81.25 BB
UTG: 65.52 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J A

UTG raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 8.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 7.5 BB, UTG calls 5.5 BB

Flop: (26 BB, 3 players) 2 3 J
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 11 BB, fold, UTG raises to 57.02 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 46.02 BB

Turn: (140.04 BB, 2 players) 7

River: (140.04 BB, 2 players) 4

Hero shows J A (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 49%, Flop 88%, Turn 95%)
UTG shows 4 4 (Three of a Kind, Fours)
(Pre 51%, Flop 12%, Turn 5%)
UTG wins 135.79 BB

PokerBros - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 180.25 BB
BTN: 60.21 BB
SB: 208.27 BB
BB: 94.2 BB
UTG: 59.24 BB
MP: 25.69 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, BB raises to 16 BB, UTG calls 15 BB, Hero calls 12 BB

Flop: (48.5 BB, 3 players) 2 2 9
BB checks, UTG bets 43.24 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 43.24 BB, fold

Turn: (134.98 BB, 2 players) 9

River: (134.98 BB, 2 players) 4

Hero shows Q Q (Two Pair, Queens and Nines)
(Pre 80%, Flop 88%, Turn 5%)
UTG shows 9 8 (Full House, Nines full of Twos)
(Pre 20%, Flop 12%, Turn 95%)
UTG wins 130.73 BB

PokerBros - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 107.72 BB
SB: 97.5 BB
BB: 307.56 BB
UTG: 255.5 BB
MP: 238.65 BB
CO: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J Q

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) T 4 2
CO bets 5 BB, Hero calls 5 BB

Turn: (17.5 BB, 2 players) 8
CO checks, Hero bets 8.75 BB, CO raises to 32.25 BB, Hero calls 23.5 BB

River: (82 BB, 2 players) J
CO bets 59.75 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 59.75 BB

Hero shows J Q (Flush, Queen High)
(Pre 43%, Flop 22%, Turn 0%)
CO shows K 7 (Flush, King High)
(Pre 57%, Flop 78%, Turn 100%)
CO wins 197.25 BB

Last edited by Sheep86; 07-20-2020 at 08:27 AM. Reason: merged HHs
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Old 07-20-2020, 07:08 AM   #11
GreekDaGrinD
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Re: Poker is not dead but its killing me

this hands is from the month of July!! last 10 days of June i moved up to 100nl from 60nl and this bad beats made me lose like 2 months of my countrys salary!! This is happening the last 5k hands..do you think thats normal or Pokerbros wanna give money back to some fishes so they will continue playing??? I dont wanna think online poker is rigged and things like that but this bad beats is gonna make me crazy, they was hitting this ****ing 2 outer always..
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Old 07-20-2020, 07:13 AM   #12
GreekDaGrinD
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Re: Poker is not dead but its killing me

Quote:
Originally Posted by Colin_Piddle View Post
If your as good as you say you just ride the wave of variance. Fold a few more rivers as well. People always overcall on the river.
you are so ****ing right!! Even Negreanu knew the exact hand they have at the river and he was calling down sometimes!! I have the same ****ing issue..sometimes i know what my AA is losing against some fishes which i can understand what they hit 2 pair and im still calling down afraid not to get bluffed..the best way to resolve it is to go through hand history and see your river calls???
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Old 07-20-2020, 11:13 AM   #13
500kg
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Re: Poker is not dead but its killing me

You had the worst hand in all those hands you've posted, I don't see the problem.
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Old 07-21-2020, 02:31 PM   #14
SuperSwag
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Re: Poker is not dead but its killing me

is pokerbros rigged in some way? Most of the hands just look like variance except the K7 hand.
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Old 07-22-2020, 03:00 AM   #15
M0N60L
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Re: Poker is not dead but its killing me

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...tml?highlight=

check dudes last downswing and chill.
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Old 07-23-2020, 08:31 AM   #16
GreekDaGrinD
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Re: Poker is not dead but its killing me

Quote:
Originally Posted by 500kg View Post
You had the worst hand in all those hands you've posted, I don't see the problem.
at the flush vs flush yeah indeed, but i saw this flush vs bigger flush 4 times in 10 days and is driving me a bit of crazy..where else i had the worse hand?? all the times they hit their outters except the set vs set situation
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Old 07-23-2020, 08:52 AM   #17
GreekDaGrinD
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Re: Poker is not dead but its killing me

Quote:
Originally Posted by M0N60L View Post
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...tml?highlight=

check dudes last downswing and chill.
omg!!! yeah i see
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Old 07-29-2020, 04:03 PM   #18
ejames209
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Re: Poker is not dead but its killing me

Quote:
Originally Posted by AJHPoker View Post
eventually Equity will correct itself and I will run ABOVE EV for a equal length of time".[/B]



Final Questions:
1 - Have you guys had extended downswings? How many BI's in about how long
2 - How did you react? Did you play through and continue to get kicked in the balls until poker decided to stop? Did you take a break?
3 - What is your mental process after taking a bad beat other than "If you didnt feed the fish they wouldnt play". Do you run the equity and say "I won $x.xx that hand even though I didnt win this time?
4 - Is there any resource online that shows on average how many hands need to be played to "average out EV" or is that an unknown thing or is the number so huge that most of us will never be able to play that many hands.
I'll be serious in BBV for a change.

There's no guarantee that your EV will "correct itself". Theoretically you can run above or below EV forever. It is your win rate that will eventually converge to what your true WR is.

1. My worst downswing was around 20 buyins and maybe 10k hands, which is really not that bad, it was a very high rake and rather tough zoom game.

2. I moved to a site with lower rake and my worst downswing since was 10 buyins. Go figure. Rake matters.

3. I usually punch my punching bag or my face. I don't tilt in the sense that I start making dumb plays to get even but rather I air my frustration right then and there to get it out of my system. Helps me anyway.

4. Google primedope and play around with the parameters. Note that their estimations of downswings are often much lower than reality, since the calculations assume you play your A-game 100% of the time, which is virtually impossible.

Hope this helps.
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Old 07-30-2020, 11:40 AM   #19
rakemeplz
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Re: Poker is not dead but its killing me

Poker is undead...it has come back to take our souls.

We are the playing dead.

Last edited by rakemeplz; 07-30-2020 at 11:40 AM. Reason: posild
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Old 07-30-2020, 05:03 PM   #20
SammysGF
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Re: Poker is not dead but its killing me

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