Quote:
Originally Posted by Fredron
I'm just gonna throw something out that you could use incase you feel like you need to extend the bet a bit and add some days in Januari.
Once he's done in December, compare his HEM stats to the PTR stats, if it's 100% accurate then take the days from Januari that you want to add and just add 100%, if PTR only shows 75% of your hands in December, then take your Januari days and only add 75% of their real value.
Of course one may say that it's easier to make money the first days in Januari than in the middle of December. But still, this could be somewhat fair.
i really don't want any bet extensions because it would be lame, especially over like a 2 hour webcam failure or something. however if by the rare chance there is a need for extension (like a family member dies midway through) then what you are suggesting is a good idea.
this is a cool bet and i hope i dont have to back out of it but i need enough action to attempt this. fwiw, when i first thought of this bet in my head, i didnt do any calculations and just estimated the line was somewhere around 10 to 1. what do I think now? well, i think ive lost alot of confidence with regards to being able to accomplish this bet. im sticking with it just because I feel obligated to attempt this (assuming i get enough action). do I know if I will even show profit in december? no. i was -0.67 BB/100 over 400k hands on a euro site. someone even made a side bet with me that i wont get over 3k profit in december! on top of that, of all the sites I could have picked to compete for the leaderboard (ipoker, fulltilt, bodog, party poker, ultimate bet, etc) i decided to pick pokerstars, which holds the lowest winrate per player.
i know people feel discouraged to put money up at 6 to 1, but i cant change that unless i change the bet altogeher. two players that i play with on the euro site have bet against me, and a friend has bet against me. also, when you think about how rare it is for members of the commuity to bet at 6 to 1, the fact that people have bet at 6 to 1 in this thread shows that this is a tough bet. its quite a unique bet in the fact that its not player dependent like 99% of all prop bets on 2+2. this bet has tons of variables and im taking a pretty big gamble with it!