Bigger on turn
Give up this river. You only need like 6 bluff combos if you go bigger on turn
the thing is that by going smaller, I can make a better river shoving range
some villains will call a lot of turns here, even with their draws and steal the pot if I check the river
so I can change my river range to a check-folding range, with most of my absolute garbage with no showdown value, a shoving range, merging a lot of my midvalue cards and no check-calling range
I know my weaknesses: I'm bad at hero calling, if I start checking this river, I'll give opportunity to the villain to do whatever he wants, like checking behind his medium strength hands valuebetting me, bluffing me.
If I shove here a lot of air, Ax, Kx, 2x, AK, AQ, sets, and a lot of busted draws, villain will have to either:
A) call with only Ax+ Kx+
B) play more straightfowardly OTF and OTT by not floating me like crazy
with both options, I'm fine with, if villain starts respecting more my turn bets, I'll be able to play such an easier game with low margin for error, if they start only calling with Ax, fine, maybe it will be +EV in the long run, but by facing such a range, the variance will be so high on this spot that it will take an absurd amout of hands in order for him to realize his edge.
Maybe things get so confusing for him that he will start adapting poorly after he sees an A3 merging the river and beating his Kx bluffcatcher.
by playing like that, I'll restrict opponent's options, denying his position advantage, so he will either see a check here from a hand that he already beats, or a shove, so he won't be able to check behind his bluffcatchers/hands with reasonable showdown value, like Kx and pocket pairs.
I see a lot of regs floating me like crazy and I hate that, seriously, this is one of the reasons I play with 100bbs, when I get to 150 I reset my stack.
By shoving a merged range OTR, I won't have too much to think, make less mistakes, even though it may not be the most +EV move, I'm fine with it, if it makes the game hard for my opponent and easy for me, just the amount I gain by making less mistakes is awesome.
And by betting 55% OTF and OTT, it leaves me with a slightly bigger than the pot river bet, increasing the weight of this move by a lot.
by playing like that, I'll be extremely +EV vs people who float me more than they should, like calling the turn with PPs, Kx, 9x and gutshots, and I think that in the games I'm playing, people are floating more than they should.
although on NL50 people don't do that, it's -EV there to merge OTR like that
but from what I saw, from the hands people post here on midstakes, I think this move will punish regs pretty hard there, from the hero calls I saw people doing, those huge floats too.
Do you do coaching? I want to be a superhero like you.
lol, if there's anything you would like to add, just post here, I'm learning, creating strategies and trying to beat the game.
I won't do that by trying to copy blindly most pro's strategies and mastering them, trying to become better than they are, I don't have that much time to go through all ranges and sizes and all that kind of 33% bet sizing bull**** people are doing nowadays.
I can't be better than they are in their game, so I'll have to move the game into a place where I have advantage.
btw, I don't coach yet, but as I'm creating new moves, I'll try to teach people the kind of guerilla tactics I use
This is unwanted déjà vu back to when OP was the worst poster in the microstakes forum. Back then he also couldn’t beat NL25+. Posted hands he’d butchered, better players would bother to analyse them and point out mistakes. Then OP would reply with justifications and excuses for his bad play and ignore all the obvious comments about listening to people who know something or else stop posting. And then keep using his own awesome strategy to lose at -10BB/100.....and also keep posting about it
Spoiler:
P.S. thread title should be changed to “From NL2 to NL50 and back to NL2”. And then closed obviously
This is unwanted déjà vu back to when OP was the worst poster in the microstakes forum. Back then he also couldn’t beat NL25+. Posted hands he’d butchered, better players would bother to analyse them and point out mistakes. Then OP would reply with justifications and excuses for his bad play and ignore all the obvious comments about listening to people who know something or else stop posting. And then keep using his own awesome strategy to lose at -10BB/100.....and also keep posting about it
Spoiler:
P.S. thread title should be changed to “From NL2 to NL50 and back to NL2”. And then closed obviously
people's advice got to me, they were awesome poker players and taught me a lot. When I justify my point, don't think that I didn't read or that I decided to ignore the good and sound advice people gave to me.
The thing is that I wanted to discuss other things, create poker theory, find out how things could be, how to take new lines.
Have you asked yourself why few pro players use donkbets?
Because it's established that when you call from the blinds, your range is weaker, then you should check your entire range, also the pre-flop raiser has the aggression, so he should keep his initiative, and you should respect this "hidden rule" of poker.
Don't tell me that donkbetting is bad, because Libratus, the bot who beat most pros uses donkbetting in his strat.
People are afraid of changes. It's much easier to hide yourself in a barrier of what is established as a "good poker consensus" than trying to make new stuff, experimenting. I think this guy's advice is good, by betting more OTT we will put more pressure into the opponent without risking much more of our stack. Also I may use it to my advantage, if I see aggro regs doing it with draws, then raising the turn is a good move. Betting more OTT and giving up if I don't hit with draws is something I already do.
and my winrate wasn't that bad, 3bb/100 on NL10 for 300k hands, + some NL25 + some NL50.
I turned $30 into more than $1400 during that time.
This time I turned $50 into $900(yeah, rebuilding that bankroll!)
I like what you are doing op. I'm not basing that on its success or even it's logic but you are taking new lines than 99% of other players and appear to have thought about why etc. Even if you go busto I think you will have learned some interesting things that some of us may never learn or at least not so quickly.