Pokerstars PLO2z and PLO5z
Net Won Hand is the score
Net Won is the score with cashout
Selectively cashing out gave the expectation, and the opponents ran below EV. The difference is variance. Or it is possible those stats mean something other than I/everyone thinks they mean.
Maybe a bit strange a pick, but I happened to take these pictures today, looking up my old Races from Pokerstars. It shows a point or two.
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PLO2z at GGPoker, 20k total hands, I ran 9 stacks below EV in All-ins alone (HEM3 Races - I have posted it earlier) but broke even on the score overall.
When I ran (a lot) below EV with showdowns, I always ran below EV in non sds also, in case those graphs are showing what I think they are showing; in that case, it is double bad running. So, breaking even is pretty good, and doesn't matter in the long run when moving up. Some 6bb/100 in NLH is a reason for celebration, even if it is a regular table with reasonable players.
I didn't beat PLO5z for money, just beat the rake at GG and lost a bit at Stars. But not beyond the variance (even with 40k hands total). I did better at PLO10z, but that's meaningless (17k or so hands total). What matters here is how good I am. First at Stars, then at GG, and I am mainly done with 2 and 5 at least.
The way to beat the micro zooms is to have a balanced game (GTO)(because you need to practise it) and overfold in many cases and that with increasing experience beats at least the rake, that's a pretty likely result also considering it is so much variance and small differences, and IMO good enough to move up if one can afford it.
You will be seeing how you run bad and then make up to good green results, and then you will see the opposite, that you have 6bb/100 but play more, and it might go to zero, or even to -6bb/100. It doesn't happen after every 20k hands, but it happens. More so inside 5k, 10k, 20k hands. It is time to understand how the variance goes.
Looking at the statistics is a good way to start thinking about the runs, like one looks into the big losing hands after a bad run to see one played well enough. Helps psychologically to see one is playing well enough for the limit, and what the variance is more about.
The main thing is to get better and not make money, that though helps when moving up, but the micro zooms are not for making money but an awesome opportunity to get better cheaply.
I will next play regular tables and see if I can win anything. If not, I come back whining, in case I get enough hands in to have anything to contribute. At KK/PP I probably won't get any HHs, and not sure about my current mopping-up-money site yet. I built skill first, and now I aim to make money to move up, as I don't like dropping hundreds and thousands for moving up when facing bad variance.
One should not be all freaking out when it comes to 20k hands (in PLO). It might be happening even as often as one time in five in PLO? When looking at some mid-limit PLO pro's years long graphs.