MOST UNBALLA DECISION EVER THIS IS A GOOD THREAD OPEN IT - Page 7

k, let's put it that way:

after picking 1 suitcase, there is a 1:19 chance, we have the million, and a 18:19 chance the million is in the remaining 19. true or not?

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12-12-2007 , 08:51 AM

#152

Clayton

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 32,237

true, but at no point do other briefcases become "revealed" before a decision is to be made

thus monty hall would be null, i think

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12-12-2007 , 08:55 AM

#153

Clayton

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 32,237

monty hall problem in "deal" would be as follows

when down to three cases, you have a bankers deal open.

your case is next to you, the values left are 1 million, $1, and $2

The banker offer is $400k.

Before you could choose, the host reveals that one of the cases that is not yours is in fact holding the $1.

Under the assumption that the host will always reveal a single briefcase containing a low number from the two briefcases that are not yours, it is in your best interest from an EV standpoint to take the other case (666k) as opposed to the banker offer (400k) or your own briefcase (333k)

but since this never happens, its a moot point

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12-12-2007 , 09:18 AM

#154

skillgambler

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 11,730

the monty-hall-problem doesn't just apply to cases w/ 3 cases, it's universal to any number. so if we have like 999 goats and one prize, pick one blindly, get shown 998 goats we still need to switch(ldo).

___________________________
rethinking:
we have a 50/50 pick to have a suitcase in the upper 50% and in the lower 50% so when we are down to 2 monty-hall can suck my hairy balls.

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12-12-2007 , 09:20 AM

#155

FoldEqu1ty

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 5,747

Quote:

monty-hall can suck my hairy balls.

Now you're starting to get it.....

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12-12-2007 , 10:03 AM

#156

rockrokok

centurion

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 177

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xanta

It drives me insane how popular this show is. It is the dumbest premise for a gameshow I've ever heard.

I thought it had to contain at least a minimum of skill-related decisions in order for it to be called a game show?

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12-12-2007 , 12:57 PM

#157

sapol

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,823

Do the producers of the show use any type of formula to get the offers? Because I've seen some EV+ and other EV- offers so I don't know where they get the numbers from.

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12-13-2007 , 05:42 AM

#158

Devilboy666

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 2,569

Quote:

Originally Posted by sapol

Do the producers of the show use any type of formula to get the offers? Because I've seen some EV+ and other EV- offers so I don't know where they get the numbers from.

I always assumed that someone behind-the-scenes looked at the contestant's actual EV and then made an offer near that. They can make it slightly higher or slightly lower each time depending on what they think will make for good TV. Or that's what I would do anyway.

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12-13-2007 , 06:24 AM

#159

bottomset

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 26,337

does anyone actually click the spam links?

also it really has to suck to be the poor bastard going around spamming

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12-13-2007 , 08:45 AM

#160

Vaguish

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 159

Quote:

Originally Posted by seano34

Lol at some of these replies

Put it this way - Say you were in the same situation and the top prize was £1,000,000,000 and the other box was £1 and they offered you a deal where you got £250,000,000.

Would you take it knowing it was a -EV decision?

Of course you would because it would be a life changing amount of money and the sick, sick life tilt you would go on if you got the £1 box would not be worth it and also the knowledge that you are never going to be in this spot again to even out the variance would surely sway you.

Precisely.

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12-13-2007 , 09:00 AM

#161

Rootabager

banned

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 4,180

the banker gives way too good of deals on the american version. I love that they only offer 20k for 100k of EV. It makes the show so much better because ppl will gamble it up more.

That is what makes the american version suck. No reason to gamble.

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12-13-2007 , 10:00 AM

#162

Gonzirra

hold on brb

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 20,121

A true balla would tell Howie to shove a suitcase up his ass, say hold on I gotta take ****, and then just walk off the stage and out of the studio right in the middle of the game.

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