Last 200 Days of poker - Page 6 - Poker Beats Brags and Variance

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04-28-2009 , 12:51 PM

#126

DoctorBarbie

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 266

Quote:

Originally Posted by ryanaw19

I'm not even going to bother explaining why I think this is one of the most dumbest posts i've ever seen on 2+2.

/nuthugging etc

But the most dumbest posts are the most bestest posts.

Quote

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04-28-2009 , 01:06 PM

#127

ajt8

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 2,860

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Lipo Fund

from doug's MTT staking contract:

"14. As you might be aware, Pokerstars awards a special leather jacket to those who win the Sunday Million. While Rules #2 and #3 explicitly state that as horses you get to keep all FPPs/Bonuses/Rakeback/Milestones for yourself, but this serves as an amendment to that rule. In addition to the 50% of the winnings you'll send me if you win the Sunday Million, you'll also send an email to Pokerstars requesting the jacket to be size Large. Upon receiving the jacket in the mail, you will have it delivered to me via overnight parcel service. My address is XXX XXXXXXXX XXXX Wilmington, North Carolina 28401. Email me all of the delivery confirmation details and the tracking number at [email protected] so I can be assured it has been sent in a timely and safe fashion."

...............

lol winning jacketaments

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04-28-2009 , 01:37 PM

#128

Ce1ska

banned

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 4,598

Quote:

Originally Posted by fees

Also EV graphs, won $ at showdown, showdown winnings, all that is bullsht just ignor it.

Quote

04-28-2009 , 03:06 PM

#129

Spurious

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 18,593

Quote:

Originally Posted by ranka

Maybe I am wrong but I think HEM (also PT3) calculates all-in EV very strangely - it's calculated on the street when all-in bet have been made - dosen't matter how much money went in previous steet(s).

It affects very-very much if you constantly building big pots PF with weak hands - like 3betting and 4betting with trash connectors or drawing against odds and hit your draws.

Extreme example:
100BB Stacks, you have 98s and villain have AA.

You raise to 99BB, villain call and you both have 1BB left. Pot is 198BB, flop is 999 and you put in your last 1BB, regular obviously call. Turn A, river A.

You moved in flop with 99.899% equity in 200BB pot (potential long run profit: 99.899BB ) and you still lost the pot. What a bad beat! On the EV graph, your EV moves to the 99.8999BB and your total winnings line moves to -100BB. You are running 2 buy-ins below EV!

But in real life, you did very-very bad play - you put 99% of your stacks in with 19% equity and another 1% with 99% equity! You even don't need long run, you are probably start losing in short term!

I hope you get my point -- all-in graphs are trash and please people stop using them like excuses!

This is exactly what I think about HEM EV, it's a bunch of crap.

EV in general is overrated.

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04-29-2009 , 12:33 PM

#130

toughpaprika

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 17

ev graphs are BS ? uh u guys just dont get the math. just learn to differentiate or understand what is running bad EV wise which is stone cold maht fact in standard spots (draws vs made hand, over pair vs overpair ) and what is running spot dead.

if someone is running -40k under equity then he is 40k under what he should have from math point.. end of story.. if get 15 KK (your KK) vs AA and none of opposite its called spot dead but this dont affect EV graphs...

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04-29-2009 , 12:55 PM

#131

ranka

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 7,504

Did u read my post how EV is calculated? It's obv right math at this point where all-in bet made but u can do 1000000000 x huger mistake previous street that you did on street where all bet have been made.

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04-29-2009 , 01:27 PM

#132

toughpaprika

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 17

Quote:

Originally Posted by ranka

i understand ur saying it shoudl be sum of all EV decisions in hand. that would be more close to reality but i'm not sure if its as easy as just suming all equities, esp for mw pots--not sure. i mean if it was like u suggest it would be another step to getting the better overlook on things but still All-IN EV is All-IN ev and it shows exactly how u run in spots where ur ALL-IN

quick thought, maybe it isnt even correct to sum the EV decisions before ur all in, cos ur never going to see the EV (=$) from those decisions in showdown...not sure if this is explained well but maybe u'll get what u mean... that would be sklansky bux.........