Insane coincidence! What is the odds? - Page 2 - Poker Beats Brags and Variance

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Insane coincidence! What is the odds?

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01-07-2016 , 09:44 PM

#26

ballabottyswalla

adept

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 1,079

smarten up next time op

Quote

01-07-2016 , 11:45 PM

#27

UGiveMe$5

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 233

1:infinity

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01-10-2016 , 03:28 AM

#28

paratrooper99

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 2,051

Its a sign for the Poker God to go all in. Nothing is a coincidence.

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01-10-2016 , 05:06 AM

#29

ballabottyswalla

adept

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 1,079

i agree

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01-10-2016 , 10:14 AM

#30

HotCosby

banned

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 231

button is not even in the same place

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01-12-2016 , 12:03 PM

#31

dogthefrog

banned

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 176

Quote:

Originally Posted by ballabottyswalla

smarten up next time op

Well done op you got this chum to get really mad.

Quote

01-12-2016 , 09:30 PM

#32

W0X0F

sit back, relax, and enjoy the flight

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 5,841

Quote:

Originally Posted by MTT_9797

Odds are:

(3!*2!)/(52!/(52-5)!) or 1 in 25,989,600

How did you come up with this? The odds of three particular cards coming out* are:

(3/52) * (2/51) * (1/50) = 0.0000452

or 1 in 22,100

(* Order doesn't matter)

For the odds of the flop coming out exactly the same (i.e. in order):

(1/52) * (1/51) * (1/50) = 0.00000754

or 1 in 132,600

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01-12-2016 , 10:55 PM

#33

MTT_9797

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 1,434

Quote:

Originally Posted by W0X0F

My criteria was for hole cards AND flop (order doesn't matter). So do the first equation times the odds of hole cards being AJdd (2/49*1/48).

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01-13-2016 , 11:20 PM

#34

Clanty

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 2,712

Pretty sure this is just 52*51*50*49*48?

In order to replicate, it is 1/52*1/51*1/50*1/49*1/48=1/311,875,200 No?

I do not think adding a separate criteria for each of the board/hole cards is correct.

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01-14-2016 , 02:02 AM

#35

MTT_9797

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 1,434

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clanty

Pretty sure this is just 52*51*50*49*48?

In order to replicate, it is 1/52*1/51*1/50*1/49*1/48=1/311,875,200 No?

I do not think adding a separate criteria for each of the board/hole cards is correct.

That's correct.

So if the flop is 234 and hold cards are AA, the odds to replicate would be what you said.

But the odds for ANY of such flop with ANY two black aces would be what I quoted.

So 342 and AA would be acceptable.

To put it in practice, what you said: 52*51*50*49*48 = 52!/(52-5)! as denominator. There are twelve possible ways to be delt two black aces AND the flop having those three cards (in whichever order). 3!*2! = 12.

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01-15-2016 , 02:07 AM

#36

mchine

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 568

You were off even farther than I thought. It is about 1 in 25380. I posted the question in the probability section and they figured it out. Look for thread that has math guru in title.

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01-16-2016 , 07:37 AM

#37

UGiveMe$5

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 233

odds of a worse thread being started?

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01-16-2016 , 01:17 PM

#38

meekrab

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 2,790

Quote:

Originally Posted by UGiveMe$5

odds of a worse thread being started?

100%

Quote

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