Quote:
Originally Posted by Scrumbine
I have read this whole thing through, and I see something emerging. I will quote all the posts in order, and #them for reference.
#24
We will see this not to be the case upon further thinking...
#40
Fist good post. Now were thinking outside the box. This is a highly unusual play yes, but unexpected. Its pros and cons will be seen soon, but as we can see from the way the hand went, if he had stabbed PRE flop, then villain may have folded, and douche may have never mis identified you as the villain.
#50
Hit points or chips, we need to figure out how to get villain to fold.
#71
Reverse implied odds if I have ever seen them. The only real crippling thing about this hand.
#80
We may have to take a different line in betting, but I would stick with the stabbing no matter what lands on the river. This is a situation where you need to be able to put your opponent on a hand, and futher FE is going to be huge.
#85
(see graph in post #85, not in this post) this is only reached in theory or in a lab setting, not in mid swing of a game.
#179
I think this is at the heart of our strategy. We could even elevate our table image to the point where they ACTUALLY just hand us the money. Thats what we are looking for yeah?
#193
This I look at as like auto table selection in the future. If people will play with you they must not pay attention (therefore must be weak players) so you will find you more often get the monies (whether or not you have to actually stab them.)
#234
This.
When I was reading the thread I knew there was an over arching strategy somewhere ITT and this is it. If they (the villains out there) think you were just doing this for show, then its like move counter move. But If you make sure they know their whole 'stack' is on the line, they will respect your small raises more. After I read this I had to go back and pour over all the posts to see the master strategy here.
#247
I think #234 inspired more to start to see the real way this hand should have been played, but as played, definitely continuation stab in court.
#263
This kind of move could also be good for the game because people will think 2 times before getting out of line. Different kind of metagame consideration, but hey, do we really need wussies playing this tough wild west game? Some of these 'metro' types are too hard to read anyway. Instead of folding they might get a tazer or something. Just scaring them off before they get to the game is obv +EV in most situations.
#311
The oversimplified version of the wisdom ITT
The cliffnotes iff you will.
#321
Here is the proof for the need for the master play of stabbing (either as played or at sometime sooner in the hand).
#335
It does seem for all his genius, our OP was in the wrong game for this move. Darn stool pigeon in the game... but as already said, many 'wussies' will not play with him now, so the play has residual benefits, even when it goes wrong. We can consider this as advertising value.
IN CONCLUSION
He had a good idea, and may have picked the right spot, to figure this out we can calculate the following.
The size of the blinds, the size of the stacks, and the size of the egos in the game. When we get our values and then compare them to the hands (we should win LDO) then we add our special play. If we use it early, we take it down! Total win!!
As played we need to take the following values:
All future fold equity - F
The respect we gain when we stab him - R
What he will win in court for suing us - S
His likely hood of winning said law suit - L
so then (F+R)-(S.L) = EV
That my friends, is my stabbing theorem.
In this situation I think we are slightly +EV, but its close, so either stab or fold PF. The only reason to fold is the reverse implied odds.
lol great post. but you have too much time on your hands.