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Is 7.48 BB/100 over 2,640 Hands Luck? Is 7.48 BB/100 over 2,640 Hands Luck?

10-05-2022 , 09:45 AM
I played 2,640 hands live no limit 1/2 since Covid and won 7.48 BB / 100. My play has improved tremendously after online play. I maintain the humility that my winnings might very well also be due to some good luck. A relevant anecdote: During these sessions, I was once a 90 percent favorite in a pot $900 with aces full and lost to quads. That's a big flip in the other direction. Any thoughts?
Is 7.48 BB/100 over 2,640 Hands Luck? Quote
10-05-2022 , 10:21 AM
How do you know how many hands you've played live? Live is usually tracked by an hourly rate, not by 'hands' .. are you tracking them somehow?

At 40 hands/hour you've played about 66 hours .. SUPER small sample size

7.48/100 drops to 3/hour .. so $6 per hour winner with a $13/hour major hit in the quads hand .. so let's say that didn't happen. You're a $19/hour winner at 1/2 poker in a very small sample size.

While most 1/2 Players are long term losers, winning 'just' 6 BI over 66 hours can't really assess your play as 'good' or 'luck' either.

I would say that typically there's some transition to live from online. I would also say that you are generating more folds than you deserve due to the Player pool not knowing how you play .. yet. That being said any profit shown should be seen as 'positive'.

From other threads on this site that you can search for, typically a 1/2 solid winner should be making $20/hour or more before even considering a step up to 2/5. So based on that ideal you're doing 'fine' at 1/2 but not anything extra special either .. in a very short time frame. You're probably a favorite in the game and just took a bad beat, but those are going to happen.

So if you discount the bad beat by 50%, you're a winner but still need to prove it over a longer timeframe. GL

Last edited by answer20; 10-05-2022 at 10:37 AM.
Is 7.48 BB/100 over 2,640 Hands Luck? Quote
10-05-2022 , 12:07 PM
My goal was not to be a loser in a casino with a high rake. If you read my posts, you'll see I make mistakes all the time. Fortunately, my opponents are making more mistakes, and I post the most difficult hands.
Is 7.48 BB/100 over 2,640 Hands Luck? Quote
10-05-2022 , 07:48 PM
It is impossible to lose over 2,640 hands. I suggest moving up to $50/100 immediately. Take out a bank loan if you have to.
Is 7.48 BB/100 over 2,640 Hands Luck? Quote

      
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