This was posted on another site. The way the hero talked his way into winning... Something to brag about?
Villain is new to high stakes poker. 22-year old crypto kid, billionaire dad. This is his 4th game with our group. Biggest game he played before that was a $10/$20 NLHE. He's coming off a high of having had an insanely run-good in his 3rd game the previous weekend, with profits of over $750K. He's not super experienced, and tends to break flow and lead out when he has a good hand. Relatively tight, and makes decent decisions. Hero is usual loose-aggressive.
Stacks: H - $380K, V - ~$500K.
Hero is up about $80k, V is up about $100k.
Hero is in the straddle, Villain is UTG+2. 7 handed game, about 3 hours into play. 100/200 with a perma-straddle UTG to $400.
Villain calls straddle. Small and big blinds call. BB is a pro, big cash game player from Vegas. SB is a well-known poker personality, semi-pro. Both are aggressive players.
Hero looks down at :qs::qd:.
Pro is eager to play hands with both H and V, and is most likely going to call a small raise with a wide range, planning to outplay on the flop. We need a raise that will fold most of his outer range, like AxS.
Hero raises to $4,800.
Villain calls.
SB folds.
BB Pro takes some time, calls.
Flop is :6s::8s::7d:
BB checks. He has about $200k behind, down about $100k.
Right away, the flop isn't great for us, given the limp-call range of our UTG+2 villain. Hero considers a check, but given how tight UTG+2 villain is, and how aggressive BB Villain is, decides on a small-ish bet.
We expect, given his prior plays, for UTG+2 Villain to raise if he has something (like top pair with an Ace, 2 pair or a set), and call if he's drawing. He almost always calls when he's drawing.
We expect BB Villain, given his extreme TAG image for the last 3 hours, to fold if he has air, raise if he's made a big hand like a set or 2 pair, and call if he's on a draw. We think he may also raise with a big combo draw or sometimes bluff the pot, especially if UTG+2 doesn't call.
Checking controls the pot, but doesn't necessarily give us additional information. Or at least, that was the logic I went in with.
Hero bets $5,000.
UTG+2 Villain pauses for a bit, then calls.
BB villain thinks for a second, and then folds.
Turn is :tc:
So, given Hero has a penchant to overplay large pairs, and is stubborn about his live reads, he’s convinced himself that he is now fully aware and locked in on Villain’s range. Clearly, this has been his public downfall many a time, but has also paid off in other places. The HCL river call against Tom Dwan betting with air comes to mind.
We’re now convinced villain is playing one of the following hands:
Likely: A10s, A3s, A2s, KJs, J10s
Possible: 55, 99, A5s, A9s
Possible, less likely: 89s, A4s, A7s
Of all those, currently only 3 have made his hand, and they fall within the possible and possible, less likely scenario.
Hero decides that villain is mostly likely on a flush draw, and decides to make it an expensive card for villain to get.
Hero bets $30,000.
Villain takes a very long tank, almost 2 minutes. He calls.
River is :js:. (Hero is reminded that is probably time to start coaching again.
As stated earlier, I have made up my mind about his exact range:
We’re now convinced villain is playing one of the following hands:
Likely: A10s, A3s, A2s, KJs, J10s
Possible: 55, 99, A5s, A9s
Possible, less likely: 89s, A4s, A7s
Hero thinks for a bit. But not really thinking. Just a bit of time posture. We check.
Villain tanks. For a VERY long time. 3 minutes at least. And then he pushes all-in.
This sets of all kinds of alarm bells. The all-in is surprising. We’re expecting a value bet that might induce a call. Maybe a pot sized bed. Usually a 2/3rd or 1/2 pot sized bet. But he’s putting me in additional $340k. On the other hand, it could be an overbet to make me think he’s bluffing. But he doesn’t usually play that way. So I’m confused.
The longer I take, the more he’s visibly nervous, though. I’m starting to really think he’s bluffing, but I can’t be certain. So I think about the only hand that he could have been calling with, but didn’t get there. And it occurs to me that there’s maybe 2 hands: 55s and A5o.
After a while of debating, I decide that he’s new enough to high stakes that I can talk some info out of him.
I turn my cards face up, showing the queens. I say to him — “look, I don’t think you have a flush, and I think you’ve been chasing a straight with a pair of 5s, or maybe a single 5. Most likely the pair of 5s, because you assumed you had 10 outs, including spiking a set. I’m most likely going to call. But because you’re new to the game, I’ll give you one option - you can take it or leave it. You can take your all-in bet back, and I take the current pot. Or, I call, and you lose $380k. Your choice, but you have to decide now.”
Villain looks at me, and asks the host if that’s a binding offer. Host says that’s allowed. He accepts the offer, and mucks his hand.
