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Getting screwed over by variance Getting screwed over by variance

05-14-2020 , 08:56 PM
9 BI below EV.

Just had a sick run of losing a bunch of fairly grim 80%-ers on the trot (AA vs KK / AA vs TT and AK vs QJ all-in on KQT5 and a bunch of flush-draws on the turn and so on)

They say luck evens itself out in the long run but it just seems to get worse and worse for me! Will play 100k hands and see where it takes me (not a beginner but got back into Poker due to the lockdown and seeing how well I can do starting off at the good old-fashioned super-busto 10nl).

Graph here


Last edited by Sheep86; 05-15-2020 at 12:05 PM. Reason: embedded image
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-15-2020 , 11:46 AM
about 10.5 BI below EV now... *sigh*. Will update graph soon enough

EDIT: Sorry over 11 now.

Last edited by Rasiak9; 05-15-2020 at 12:08 PM.
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-15-2020 , 12:26 PM
Have look at this little beauty.

Winnings 270 / all in EV 381


Last edited by Sheep86; 05-15-2020 at 06:17 PM. Reason: embedded image
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-15-2020 , 01:50 PM
WOW That's absolutely INSAANNNNNEEEE
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-15-2020 , 03:50 PM
Someone show me a really ugly -EV graph or two please? Make me feel better?
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-15-2020 , 05:15 PM
I’d show you my penis if you were your mum
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-15-2020 , 05:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FranFran
I’d show you my penis if you were your mum
Ha my mum is an old cantankerous Polish lady she would dominate the **** out of you
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-15-2020 , 06:19 PM
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-15-2020 , 07:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheep86
Ha,'pree the backup but long-time lurker first-time poster so I get the whole BBV culture.

$378 all-in EV
$263 actual

still getting violated.

Won a little QQ vs KK but promptly lost with a couple of sets to one-card flush draws to put my orange line back on its bike away from my green one.

Anyway - will keep on playing and playing till I either win or have a really funky graph

https://i.imgur.com/R3xjQdy.jpg

*Woops - EDIT - Just lost another flip*

We're down to $250.95 / $376.20

https://imgur.com/3aCAb1G

This looks funny:

https://i.imgur.com/q28xtxX.jpg

Last edited by Rasiak9; 05-15-2020 at 07:53 PM.
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-16-2020 , 12:25 AM
send this to the poker is rigged debate thread - this is the smoking gun we've been looking for boys
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-16-2020 , 04:54 PM
God I really wish I believed Poker was rigged! It's just such a more convenient explanation than "yeah... you're just unlucky as ****" ha
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-16-2020 , 06:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheep86
Right you are sir!

Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-19-2020 , 07:15 PM
Now 14.5 Buy-ins below EV over 25k hands.

Is there some sort of record around there? This is getting a little crazy now :S.

I mean, obviously not saying I'm competing with a record but I'd like to see a winning players' graphed example of a serious drop below EV as part of an overall winning record. I'm pretty convinced I'm into the territory whereby not many players out there have -EV swings this bad.

Last edited by Rasiak9; 05-19-2020 at 07:36 PM.
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-20-2020 , 08:06 AM
14,5 BI under ev at 20k hands and your mental is already booming.
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-20-2020 , 10:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rasiak9
Ha,'pree the backup but long-time lurker first-time poster so I get the whole BBV culture.

$378 all-in EV
$263 actual

still getting violated.

Won a little QQ vs KK but promptly lost with a couple of sets to one-card flush draws to put my orange line back on its bike away from my green one.

Anyway - will keep on playing and playing till I either win or have a really funky graph

https://i.imgur.com/R3xjQdy.jpg

*Woops - EDIT - Just lost another flip*

We're down to $250.95 / $376.20

https://imgur.com/3aCAb1G

This looks funny:

https://i.imgur.com/q28xtxX.jpg


what's the bad news?
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-27-2020 , 03:00 AM
How the **** did this thread survive THE BURNENING?

14 BI below EV?? GTFO... we have standards here.

**** Ive had worse sessions than that.

Spoiler:
Lol 14 BI below EV

Spoiler:



Spoiler:


Spoiler:
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-27-2020 , 11:44 PM
Lmao get a grip mate, the last 24k hands I'm 20 buys below and its no where near my worst.
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-29-2020 , 12:01 AM
hey OP did you get your EV back yet
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-29-2020 , 01:11 AM
Ban OP
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-29-2020 , 02:26 AM
I already Ramsey’d him.
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
05-31-2020 , 09:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ejames209
hey OP did you get your EV back yet
A new month and it appears to be getting there!

We see the beginnings of improvement.

Getting screwed over by variance Quote
06-02-2020 , 08:36 PM
That's a bit more like it:

PokerStars Hand #214833864798: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD) - 2020/06/03 1:33:33 WET [2020/06/02 20:33:33 ET]
Table 'Media II' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Antskir ($10 in chips)
Seat 2: lion777 ($7.59 in chips)
Seat 3: diego1991 ($10.76 in chips)
Seat 4: Wildwoolsy ($10.81 in chips)
Seat 5: Rasiak9 ($11.63 in chips)
Seat 6: POWERGUARD ($11.46 in chips)
diego1991: posts small blind $0.05
Wildwoolsy: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Rasiak9 [Tc Kc]
Rasiak9: raises $0.20 to $0.30
POWERGUARD: calls $0.30
Antskir: folds
lion777: folds
diego1991: calls $0.25
Wildwoolsy: folds
*** FLOP *** [8d Ac Th]
diego1991: checks
Rasiak9: bets $0.48
POWERGUARD: calls $0.48
diego1991: folds
*** TURN *** [8d Ac Th] [Jc]
Rasiak9: bets $0.94
POWERGUARD: calls $0.94
*** RIVER *** [8d Ac Th Jc] [Qc]
Rasiak9: bets $1.84
POWERGUARD: calls $1.84
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Rasiak9: shows [Tc Kc] (a Royal Flush)
POWERGUARD: mucks hand
Rasiak9 collected $7.18 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $7.52 | Rake $0.34
Board [8d Ac Th Jc Qc]
Seat 1: Antskir folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: lion777 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: diego1991 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: Wildwoolsy (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Rasiak9 showed [Tc Kc] and won ($7.18) with a Royal Flush
Seat 6: POWERGUARD mucked [9c Ah]
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
06-03-2020 , 08:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TaX_iT_BaK
Lmao get a grip mate, the last 24k hands I'm 20 buys below and its no where near my worst.
Can you show me your graph? Joking aside I genuinely have only recently taken up playing poker seriously again since the lockdown so (whilst this probably isn't the best subforum to discuss it!) it would be helpful to get some sort of a gauge on the kinds of swings one can expect over a large enough sample.

Am now 5.7 BI above EV in June so hopefully getting back on track.

A friend of mine has recommended I read 'The Mental Game of Poker' and from the extracts I've skimmed it does sound exactly like the sort of book I ought to read.
Getting screwed over by variance Quote
06-03-2020 , 04:41 PM
Getting screwed over by variance Quote

      
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