Flopped underfull and drawing to one out - Poker Beats Brags and Variance

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Flopped underfull and drawing to one out

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10-15-2021 , 10:15 AM

ElGordo

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 58

5/5 NLH AQ runs into AA on flop of AQQ and I get felted for 100bb. Boo hoo, I know. Help with the math here: if flopping a boat with two unpaired cards is about 1/1000 and flopping it with a pocket pair is about 1/100 I've got a 1/100k hand scenario. How/how much should I adjust for blocking one of his aces on that? Does it make it 1/200k? Sorry for dumb questions but the maths is hard.

Last edited by ElGordo; 10-15-2021 at 10:26 AM.

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10-15-2021 , 11:31 AM

FWWM

FOOT FF Fristion '15

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 12,502

It's about 3.50%

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10-15-2021 , 01:46 PM

King Fish

A Big Deal Around Here

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 15,065

That depends. Was your opponent eating Oreos?

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10-15-2021 , 02:13 PM

fidstar-poker

I'm gonna need a hacksaw

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 32,988

50/50

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10-15-2021 , 03:31 PM

Colin_Piddle

The Colonial

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 11,807

OP's account is from 2006. What a boss

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10-16-2021 , 03:57 AM

Morphismus

BBV Poker Player of 2022

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 24,273

Quote:

Originally Posted by ElGordo

How/how much should I adjust for blocking one of his aces on that?

Fold 10% more rivers.

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10-16-2021 , 08:08 AM

Mr.mmmKay

Drugs are bad...

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 20,176

Fold all of them

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10-16-2021 , 08:09 AM

FWWM

FOOT FF Fristion '15

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 12,502

and call for Obama to help you

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10-16-2021 , 04:30 PM

FranFran

Fran and stuff

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 20,451

14%

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10-16-2021 , 06:24 PM

#10

pierrot_63_97

adept

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,065

Which queen did you have ? Spade I guess ?

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