Cant be normal run bad plo - Poker Beats Brags and Variance

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Cant be normal run bad plo

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02-06-2024 , 04:13 PM

PH90

stranger

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 8

As the title says, surely running this bad at $200 plo is not normal? running 60 buyins under equity has anyone else ever experienced this level of unbelievable run bad.

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02-07-2024 , 11:25 AM

MrJuntao

stranger

Join Date: Jan 2024 Posts: 2

Quote:

Originally Posted by PH90

As the title says, surely running this bad at $200 plo is not normal? running 60 buyins under equity has anyone else ever experienced this level of unbelievable run bad.

Higher variance game, running bad yes, running insanely bad ,eh? Not really you're not running worse than a couple SD's from where you should be

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02-07-2024 , 03:16 PM

PH90

stranger

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 8

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrJuntao

Higher variance game, running bad yes, running insanely bad ,eh? Not really you're not running worse than a couple SD's from where you should be

So running 60 buyins below ev is normal stuff?

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02-07-2024 , 04:13 PM

Parasense

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2023 Posts: 271

Ive seen 200 bi under ev over 1.4 million hands.
I think it could be cardsharing opponents, too...

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02-08-2024 , 05:18 AM

PH90

stranger

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 8

Quote:

Originally Posted by Parasense

Ive seen 200 bi under ev over 1.4 million hands.
I think it could be cardsharing opponents, too...

Jesus I would not have thought that would be possible

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02-14-2024 , 04:30 AM

FellaGaga-52

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 8,094

Quote:

Originally Posted by Parasense

Ive seen 200 bi under ev over 1.4 million hands.
I think it could be cardsharing opponents, too...

Luv that post. Mine eyes have seen the normatively "impossible" as well. And it is a mind opener. I was just making the point at the table the other night that 100K hands is NOTHING, nowhere near the long run or enough to iron out seeming absurdities, and was rebuffed with ideas that 10K is enough.

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02-14-2024 , 09:59 AM

Zamadhi

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 386

Quote:

Originally Posted by Parasense

Ive seen 200 bi under ev over 1.4 million hands.

You mean this one?

350 bi under EV over 1.6M hands

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02-14-2024 , 11:52 AM

Parasense

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2023 Posts: 271

Yes... My mistake...
Imagine if he used cashouts all the time...

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02-14-2024 , 04:27 PM

ZentralratDerLuden

enthusiast

Join Date: Dec 2020 Posts: 58

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrJuntao

Higher variance game, running bad yes, running insanely bad ,eh? Not really you're not running worse than a couple SD's from where you should be

A couple is at least 2, which is outside of 95.4% of cases and if it's 3, we're talking outside of 99,7%. It certainly falls within the range of possible run bads, but then you're also among the very few who can honestly consider themselves running insanely bad over the course of the respective sample. I mean who else would be justified to do so. If the sample size is big enough is obv another topic.

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02-14-2024 , 04:46 PM

#10

tri-king23

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2023 Posts: 14

Quote:

Originally Posted by FellaGaga-52

10k hands of PLO is a coin flip; 100K is maybe a fistful of lottery tickets.

Running 20 bi +/- EV is pretty routine for a month, so not hard to see how 60 bi under falls into the category of brutal but not weird.

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02-16-2024 , 02:50 AM

#11

meekrab

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 2,784

Hey OP, there's a simple trick to fixing your EV line, stop going all in with **** hands.

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02-16-2024 , 11:00 AM

#12

belthazorrrrr

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 2,221

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zamadhi

You mean this one?

350 bi under EV over 1.6M hands

Rigged

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02-16-2024 , 11:29 AM

#13

Parasense

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2023 Posts: 271

Or cardsharing collusion...

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02-19-2024 , 05:04 PM

#14

CaptnGenyo

stranger

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 10

You worried about a pretty normal bad run, but not about the fact, that you have a stunning -10 ev bb/100 over almost 200k hands?
Also, i saw you 6 tabling 200&100 r&c, probably not the best way to fix your massive loosing play.

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02-25-2024 , 11:52 AM

#15

hobokes

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 6,344

is this on ACR?

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02-25-2024 , 02:17 PM

#16

Shaqalicious

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 1,795

looks like you've ran into a card sharing ring at around hand 60k. you need to change sites. if you're playing in a game with players getting it in when the dead cards favor their %'s and folding in spots when a bunch of their outs are dead, youll end up with a graph of diverging lines like this.

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