Quote:
Originally Posted by Clifton
I began playing poker in 2001. I had met this cat who loved to play omaha and we began having home games once or twice a week playing very small limit omaha. I absolutely crushed everyone. I would generally make $200-$400 per game in these small game. That would account for about 1/3 of the chips in play. I quickly moved down to Foxwoods which was only about an hour away and began playing 5-10 O8, 1-2 NL and 5-10 /10-20 Stud. I was mixing it up and reading books. Around 2002 I opened an account on paradise, Ultimate bet and Party. I initially didn't do too well online. I wouldn't lose my buy-in but I would always hover around $500 mostly playing SNG's. I would go through periods of 4 or 5 months where I wouldn't log-in.
Then one night I bought into a PLO8 MTT and won it. The next day I played again and staked a friend of mine in a tourney I was in. We finished 1st and 3rd and I took half of his winnings. I then started only playing PLO/PLO8 MTT's on Paradise. All buy-ins were between $5-$100. Probably played 10 a day. When I narrowed it down to what I was best at I started crushing online. I made something like $20K in my first 5 month of online MTT's. I had also just moved to Denver. I was usually making anywhere from $800-$1000 a week online and probably $600 live and I stopped working for a while. I took a new job which entailed travel and I was playing in casinos everywhere. I was also doing very well. The casual players who knew me usually considered me the best card player they knew. The regulars thought I was one of the best at any table. When I would find myself in a strange city at a strange casino after 6-8 hours I would start getting comments about how I was a "pro slumming it" or how someone was pretty sure they had seen me at this casino with a wall of chips or on ESPN in this tournament. No jokingly either. And I'm not a sunglasses wearing head phone guy. I just play poker.
I had offers for stakes in the Worlds series a number of times. I continued to do well online. Late Spring of 2006 things started to change and I went through a drought where I promise you I didn't win an Omaha hand for about 5 months. I played though it. I would also play the $80K/$100K $30 rebuy every night. I broke out of my drought but watched my Kings get outdrawn by 7's when we were down to 2 tables. I was second in chips and the guy who sucked out was 3rd. Snap 2 hands later I'm out instead of heading into the final table with a commanding lead. Still not running well. A month or two later they passed UIGEA or whatever the hell it was called and the games dried up a bit. I got an account with Full-Tilt and continued to play PLO/PLO8 MTT's but could never get over the hump. Had a couple of nice cashes but nothing substantial.
I continued to play live and when they increased the bet from $5 to $100 I started playing some at Blackhawk. This was around 2008. Still running bad. Now I would play in a lot of clubs. Some very solid players, athletes, lot of money on the table. These were not donkfest games. Of course there were bad players but overall I was impressed with the poker talent in Colorado. But I just always seemed to miss - miss - miss. And I talk about missing because I was playing a lot of Omaha. After another 2 years of consistently getting my head kicked in and watching terrible plays get rewarded I just stopped playing. I could no longer "play though it". Friends of mine who would play with my would be amazed at the beats I would take over and over again.
I started playing again in 2010 online. Decided to really dedicate myself to the game. Started watching some videos, reading a lot of material here, I bought HEM and even thought about getting a coach. I knew I was good enough to make a decent living playing cards. I would go to Vegas every couple months and play the PLO game at the Venetian. I wouldn't get crushed but I never seemed to be able to book a big win. I was convinced I had to play extraordinarily better than my competition because my luck was just that bad. Then I started looking at my HEM numbers. Finally I could quantify my **** luck. It was obvious. My hands NEVER held up and I would consistently miss draws I should make. It's been years since I looked at that thing and I forget how the graphs work but I remember the lines and the red line and mine was disgusting. I think there was also all-in EV? I was running 30+% under what I should be over the course of like 800,000 hands or something. It was definitely a handy tool for me to finally see that I was not crazy. The last 1.5 years of playing in casinos, card houses and cigar bars I would get absolutely crushed over and over again. Missing my draws and my hands getting sucked out on. It was doing a number on me mentally and I would have that long drive home to ask myself "Why can't I book a win?" "How could I have just played a 14 hours session and the hand I even got a piece of was 1 time being quartered" - This is true. The last maybe 10 sessions I had played I maybe won a total of 3 hands. Were talking well over 100 hours of poker.
I had been very successful for 7-8 years playing poker. I'm not trying to sound cool but people did not like me at their table in live games. I was usually considered a very solid player. A bit of a maniac but I could play well post flop. I always had huge stacks of chips. I understood pot odds and implied odds pretty well and I just had a good feel for the game and my opponents. I was truly a student of the game. I would also play any game...It didn't matter. Never as well as some of these online prodigies and that is one of the reasons I never tried to go pro. I still think I could with the state of poker these days but if my luck does not turn around I'm ****ed.
Fast forward to the last year. I have been in Texas. I started playing a little at this cigar Bar. I've only played their tournament and cash games 3 times but I crushed all three times. Winning 1st, 2nd and 2nd and then going into the cash game to beat on that.
I finally decided to take a ride up to Winstar. Hopped into the 1-2 bring in for 5 PLO/PLO8 game. Sat and sat and sat got nothing to play or 3 hours not a hand. I am a hand selection nit especially in Omaha but it was brutal. I thought nothing has changed...still running like ****. I finally flop a big hand TPTK, openended with a nut flush draw and a gutshot straight flush draw. He got it all in on a board that had Qd-j-9d. When I got heads up on the flop I felt good about my hand. My opponent had been loose and dumping chips and I thought he had Aces or Kings. H held naked aces and it came blank blank and my stack was gone.
I move over to the 1/2 game which is super nitty. Chips can be picked up quite easily by raising in position and continuing. I did not need cards to build a $200 buy in into $800. Thank God. Now there is another element I just really became aware of. People like to try and play against me. They like to try and trap me. They want to beat me. I became aware of this maybe 3-4 years ago. I cannot bluff in live poker. Someone will always hero call me. I just look like a bluffer. I play very solid. I can sit there and fold 60 hands in a row and then raise preflop - board will come K 10 9 and with my trips kings jam the pot and get called by a guy with J-9. He doesn't have the price, he just can give me credit for a king a set or a straight. Turn comes a 4 and I bet heavy. He calls River comes the Q he rolls over J-9 and says "I honestly thought my jack may have been good". REALLY?!?! I just folded 90 percent of my hands for 3.5 hours straight and you couldn't give me credit for a hand?
I said something about it last night to this kid and he said "If I didn't know you from the last few nights of playing with you I would be looking to trap you to. For some reason you look like a guy people want to trap". So anyhow I work my stack up from simply flopping a flush and just building small pots and stealing while everyone else was waiting on the nuts. Cards not really cooperating. I get my stack to $800 and think that's a decent take for 1-2.
I don't want to get into the hands but I ran the numbers and my last 3 sessions I lost all my chips as an 88% favorite, a 67% favorite, and an 86% favorite and also flopping straight over straight and set over set, me being on the bottom. Is had been absolutely disgusting.
What are the chances of losing as an 88, 86, 67 and then flopping the bottom end of the straight while the villian flops the top and then being the victim of set over set. Can we get this put into numbers? This has all happened consecutively. All of these were all-ins. I lost all of them.
I cannot make a hand. It has gotten to the point where I want to put a gun in my mouth and blow the back of my head off. It's just been to brutal too often. I play in medium sized games and I have logged a **** load of poker inthe last 5 years. I cannot remember winning over $500 more than 1 times in the last 5-6 years. I can not think of one time I walked out of lackhawk the last 40-50 times I went a winner. Not once. A monkey given enough hours will bok a winning session. A horse could win $1000 at least once in 5 years of playing 1/2-2/5 NLHE and PLO. I get CRUSHED every time I play. Just from the last 3-4 nights playing up at Winstar a couple people have witnessed how bad I run. When I lost with my trip queens last night to a bozo calling my whole stack with bottom pair and a gutshot they were like "Oh Jesus not again". This one dealer has dealt me two of the beats. It's been so bad up there with me getting my money in ahead and losing EVERY SINGLE TIME I am starting to wonder if the card shufflers are a hustle and I'm losing to shills. How can I miss every draw for 40 hours? HOW IS IT POSSIBLE?
What am I supposed to do? I am all but convinced I am in a nightmare. I tell mysel "Okay I'm gong back today and bring two buy ins and I'm gonna crack these monkeys" You know what? I lose. It is nearly impossible for a guy who has played as much cads as I have to nothave booked a win. I booked one a week ago. It wasn't run-good. It was one hand. The rst of myhands were so absolutly ****ty I wasn't findingmyself in tough situations to lose chips. I was just fold fold fold, clench my teeth and fists and pull myhair as 8 hours would go by without ONE playable hand - J-2, K-2, 9-3, 10-2. I swear I went over 10 hours where 80% of my hands contained a 2.
The formula for beating these Winstar games seems simple enough. Play position - bet in position and continue - most of these weekday players are waiting for the stones and will give up $30-$40 pots constantly folding top pair top kicker face up. At least 3 of the players at ANY table are playing face up. When you make a hand bet it. Flop a boat? bet it - some clown will think "He wouldn't bet it" and put his chips in trying to pushme out. 5-6 times I bet with huge hands on the flop to scoop decent sized pots and listened as players would comment "wasn't expecting that" over and over again. The problem is I would grind a stack and find myself coming out on the wrong side of a bad beat at about 4-5 am every time. Get it in good and lost it happened to me with over $2k in the last 3 days. SICK SICK SICK
Suggestions? Can someone who isbetterat math than I breakdown the chances of losing with those percentages consecutively on all-in hands? Please. I believe it is astronomical. I think the chance of set over set is 1 in 31 sets? I know I lost as an 88, 87 and 67 % consecutively on all-ins and also the other flopped straight over straight. Someone please run the numbers.
TLDR - I know. "You're not running bad, you play bad" - uh okay. I get it I get it. I know the game pretty well but I'm not a statistician like a lot of you. I get as far as calculating my outs, pot odds and implied odds. I uunderstand the importance of position and adjusting to the game I am in.
One last thing I will say that I think plays into this. I really think I tend to just rub some folks the wrong way. Before people get to know me they call me arrogant or cocky and then they get to know me and they're like "Well he is kinda awesome. I'd be cocky too"...No I'm kidding but I honestly feel like I have more players playing back at me than the average card player which obviously results in my losing more hands. I really think that is a big part of it. People wanting to snap me off. People wanting to trap me. I just started to realize this more recently. It could be a great thing if the cards were cooperating but when they're not and I have 17 outs on the flop and I fire and fire and FIRE and get called thinly because this guy just wants to "Show me up" it's disastrous. It's amazing the amount of hero calls I get. Great when you're hitting but not so great when you've been card dead since the "oughts". In games where I know folks it's not an issue but f I walk into a new room. Look out. They're laying in the weeds waiting for me.
Can totally relate. My luck since playing poker about 5 years ago has been so similar. I hate to talk about running bad cause it just bores people but my latest session was so par for the course it must seem funny to OTHER people.
last online session I lost 7 flush over flushes with the last one being a queen high straight flush (yep the other guy had the King high straight flush). 3 Set over Sets and 2 one-outers ALL of them big pots and all in one session.
At Hustler casino lost 6 one-outers in one night. The villain had ONLY ONE CARD TO CATCH on the river, 6 different times, different tables even? WTF?? How is that possible? And of course an endless barrage of losing with the better pair in preflop shove matches. I can't even remember how many times.
After awhile it all just seems like a swirl of endless losing.
Luckily I don't play poker or a living, just for "fun"
