So i checked some Jared Tendlers work, and i realized that my tilting only showes me what is not mastered in my game and that is :
I am 3-betting WAYYY to light when i'm not focusing (i'm talking here i 3-bet 35s vs UTG raise, just berceuse it's suited)
I run too many 3-barrel bluffs.
I refuse to analyze the worst hands. Like i would be ashame of them before myself.
So now i gonna count the ammount of Galfond Dolars that i lost on these hands
.
Sevens first
I open and got 3-bet by NIT 10/9 that has not 3-bet any hand in last 31 occasions.
Let's try to put him on range, pritty wide here : 99+,AQs+,AK
And thats optymistic I'm 31% dog versus that range.
I got to call 2,75$ to win 7,85$.
This hand is prefloop fold as
1. I got not much read from this guy, therefore i can not plan hand ahead good.
2. I got 31% equity, and i need 33 for profitable call.
3. I got other villain behind me.
Now i call and flop gives meee
11% equity versus that range.
Even given how wide and optimistic his range is assumed here, the only hands that missed and are going to fold are :
QQ,KK,JJ,99
And let's assume he'll play them ALL this way, every time. (and i believe he would check fold most of those about 80%)
24/68 folds
Let's assume they'll all fold to my minimal 10$ barrel on flop (even tho he has to have 18% equity and is not folding KK here)
I need 0,45% to be break-even with that move.
I got 0,35% with most optimistic assumptions ever.
If those assumptions were true, flop raise would be -EV.
But they are not. Let's put some more realistic assumptions.
He'll bet KK and call, Bet and fold QQ,JJ, and just check-fold 99.
12/62 folds now - about 19%.
Now to be honest this is possible that he might take that line, but more propable is check-calling QQ,KK,JJ, check folding 99 and betting here all his value hands.
VS that line my equity is next to 11, with my two outers against AK/AQ, and my fold equity is about 0.
So if he has TT,AA,AK,AQs+ and just calls i lose
-10$ + 0,04*0,7*58$=-8,9$+1,62$ = -7,28$ ( the + is for 4% chance i spike my 7 and i have 70% equity versus that range, and ofcourse i assume he'll get all in anyway)
Now the funny part is turn.
We can be pritty sure his fold EQ on turn is low.Lets assume for second he bet-calls kings there and folds them to shove on river.
4/50 combos fold to my river shove, that gives my bluff 8% succes chance.In all-in situation i'm 3,5% underdog.
Soo by putting 15.09 into 26,85 pot i lose :
-15,09$ +0,08*26,85+0,035*58,03=-15,09$+2,14$+2,03$=-10,92$
Funny part is that checking would give me +2,03$ EV here.
Also, lesson that i took from it is the min-raise on flop to get free card.
In this particular example it stopped aggresion from strong hand, and with more % equity it might be worth it.
If we would compare just calling to min-raising (given we're trying to hit seven) raising is better option here.
So that was just reckless play and i lost sum of about 18$-19$ G-bucks even taking a little unrealistic, yet possible, assumptions.
Cheers, Bartosz.