Quote:
Originally Posted by Ojaybeek
Bad beats aside I was playing in a live tournament recently and would like to know what the odds are of the following situation.
At an eight handed table I looked down to find pocket rockets (the black ones). Preflop the field had whittled to heads up and as the reraising didn't look like stopping I shoved. He snap called and turned over the other two aces (the red ones).
Cards on their backs and all my chips in the middle the next four cards were diamonds.
What are the odds of having pocket Aces vs pocket Aces and one of them hitting a flush?
Let's break this one down:
First off, the odds of you getting dealt rocket pockets is roughly 50/50, it either happens or it doesn't. Then, to have another person get dealt the hot pockets is, independent of yours, roughly 50/50. So at this point we have to multiply these two independent events together.
So, the odds of just getting rockets versus hot pockets is 250/250 (50/50 x 50/50). So it's always going to happen here.
Now, we know exactly how many clubs, hearts, spades, diamonds, and aces are face up on the flop. So we have 52-4 cards, that's 48. So the odds of the first card being a diamond is what, exactly 12/48? Then the second would be 11/47, then 10/46. So the flop odds of making exactly three diamonds is 33/141, right? It's definitely gonna happen sometimes and the number 33 is pretty unlucky if you ask me. Then, 9/45 for the turn and that's all she wrote, Charlie!
Basically you're gonna lose 250/250 times here. This is why they tell you to fold pocket aces pre against an all-in.
Hope this helps self I mean not my gimmick I mean OP