Originally Posted by Rapidesh123
Hello TheOneBeer,
Thank you for taking the time to reach out and share your hand. I’ll do my best to give you my opinion, please feel free to let me know if you feel differently about some certain spots, I would love to here your feedback and dialogue about it. �� Let’s try and break this down.
At the beginning of this hand your stack size is sitting at 310 BB. Healthy Stack size.
You mentioned in your post that you are playing tight and open folding marginal hands such as AJo and leaving the suited connectors out of your opening range. What is your reasoning for playing tightly in this game? Are you open folding AJo to help secure a tighter image for yourself? Are there some table dynamics where you are not feeling comfortable opening your range up for some reason? Are there players to your left that you are not comfortable playing oop against? Are you worried that should you open a little lighter that you may be seeing a flop with too many players? If so there are counters to these. I understand that you may have been card dead. This happens and can be very frustrating with certain table dynamics. Depending on your reasoning for playing tight there are a few routes you can go. I’m sure you are aware of these but for the sake of other onlookers I’ll name a few of them now.
With a tight image you can open hands that you normally wouldn’t in spots that seem advantageous (weaker players being in a hand, punishing frequent limpers in the hopes to take it down) but ultimately you are looking to take advantage of your perceived range. Whether you get called or not, whether you have it or not, you should know that your perceived range has the advantage and you should proceed forward with the hand accordingly.
You have been dealt AA in the sb and you are sitting on 310BB. You have an open from the HJ to $30 with 2 callers. As of now there is $105 in the pot. You elected to raise. I agree with your decision to raise, any hand you decide to play here you should be coming in for a raise. If you raised pot here it would be $175. You should not be 3-betting on a table like this less than pot. I would say a 3-bet size somewhere between $175-$200 is best, the closer to $200 the better. BIGGER 3-BET SIZE ��
PREFLOP:
As Played: It’s your turn to act pre. You have AA with 310 BB.
Up to this point I would start assessing pre-flop ranges. Which by the way, what would you say the standard opening size for this table was? Were there instances where the opening size was more, and if so what positions were they usually? Occasionally people size up a little in ep or when stealing from the HJ or CO. Believe it or not this can skew ranges a tad.
HJ Range: Typically, people open wider in the HJ when folded to them. Opening any ace, all Broadway, and pocket pairs gives a range of about 27.9%, this is a solid value range in the HJ, but obviously people open much wider here. I would make an educated assumption and say HJ is opening 40-42% of hands here when folded to him. However, I don’t think most players have defined their opening range to be balanced. What do I mean by this? I mean that they would consider A-2 off to be in their opening range before something like T8s or 97s. So even though someone may be opening X% of the time in a certain spot, the hands they are opening with may be falling outside of there opening range %. Because of this a range may be weighted more slightly with top heavier cards with bad kickers/unsuited. Just throwing that out there.
I would give HJ a range roughly of 22+,Ax+,k4o+,k2s+, Q6o+,Q7s+,J9o+,J8s+,T9o, T8s and T9s, and 98s.
CO Range: The CO called and didn’t 3-bet. I would give the CO a range of roughly 22-88, A2o-A8o, A2s-A7s, K8o-KTo, K5s-K10, Q9 and QTo, Q7s-QTs, J9 and JTo, J7s-J9s, T8 and T9o, T7s-T9s, 98 and 97o/s, 86 and 87 o/s, 75 and 76 o/s, 65o and 64 o/s, 54o, 53 and 54s, 42 and 43s, and 32s. This is a cold calling range with no 3-bet of about 36.3%. This is wide to be calling. Is he cold calling this wide? Who cares, and heres why… If he is calling wider than this his range in general would be weighted more towards suited cards. If he is calling tighter than this (which he could be) you can knock some of the hands I listed out but, in general the fact that he didn’t 3-bet is what is MOST IMPORTANT, and you should keep this in mind later in the hand. The CO calling range isn’t exact, ultimately these could be the hands he is calling with (in general) with most of his calling range being weighted towards 22-88 and suited connectors.
Button Range: The Button elected to call, negating to 3-bet. This is important. The fact that he is a “bad reg” does in fact hold some merit preflop. Meaning some hands that he should occasionally be 3-betting in this spot he may be electing to call, or his 3-bet bluff frequency doesn’t exist or is lower than it should be, and should he have a 3-bet bluff frequency, it most likely doesn’t contain hands that he should be 3-bet bluffing with in position with (such as A5s,j10s, 9Ts.) He may also be electing to call with PP that should be 3 betting in position such as 77-JJ with 77 and 88 being a mixture of calling and 3-betting. In addition, he could be calling with stronger Broadway way hands that some more seasoned players might 3-bet with a higher frequency, either because his ability to balance a 3-bet range doesn’t exist or he is afraid to 3-bet without the utmost parts of his range. He could be electing to call Broadway hands simply because he has position. Because of these factors his range could arguably be slightly stronger than the CO, partially due, (believe it or not) too being a weaker player and due to the gap concept. He may elect to fold more of the weaker suited connectors the CO may have called with as well (the CO being a good pro.) Players like this on the button tend to also call any Ax and Kx on the button while 3- betting their strongest ace-x and king-x combos.
The Button’s cold calling range is roughly something like this, 22-JJ, A2+ -ATs. K8o+, K3s-kQs, Q9o-QJs, Q6s-QTs, J9 and JTo, J8s-JTs. As you can see already, the Buttons range is already stronger than the CO. This is since most “Bad Regs” cannot diversify their hand selection and call MORE suited connectors. This also means that if their range is more polarized to stronger cold calling ranges, with the occasional speculative hand thrown in due to being on the button. If for some reason he is calling wider, he is calling with suited connectors. He didn’t 3-bet. THIS IS IMPORTANT.
NOTE: These are what I could consider the basic “core calling ranges” for these players in these positions given the information provided. Of course, someone reading this could argue differently. You may argue that a “Bad Reg” may call even wider than I assessed (“Bro I saw him call with 73 suited on the button before” or “Bad Regs call really wide”) you may be right, and if you are, it shouldn’t affect our overall strategy that much. HAVING A STRONG OVERALL STRATEGY IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE MISCALCULATED NUANCE OF A SINGLE HAND. Amen.
Up to this point, everything I typed out may seem lengthy, and that thinking this in depth may be convoluted, pedantic, or unnecessary. That’s ok. I understand. However, assessing these preflop calling ranges to this extent only takes about 15 seconds preflop to ballpark. It took me roughly 15 to 20 seconds to assess all these ranges, and the dynamics I cited to ballpark them, so it’s not that much of a thought process. It took me longer to type out. Going into a hand I want to know at least the top part of someone’s range.
It’s your turn to act. You raise. Good on you ��Really, I wouldn’t dock you points for calling here either, for example if you were sitting around 150-200 BB I would be even more inclined to call here looking to check call certain boards, with some plans to be very aggressive on certain flop textures. As you can see your 2 cards (AA) are ahead of the overall cold calling ranges of the CO, and Button and with a shorter stack size I wouldn’t dock you for calling. If anyone wants more clarification on my reasoning behind this I’d be happy to elaborate further, but for the sake of finishing this I’ll leave it for now.
Your raise size is too small, on a table like this. This is a case of elastic and inelastic calling ranges. I’m not worried about the CO and Button 4-betting as much due to the simple fact that they didn’t 3-bet to begin with. It’s rare. However, if anyone is going to 4-bet you it’s going to be the HJ. His range is wider than the CO and Button, but his range does consist of JJ+ and AQo+ whereas the others do not. With that being said, if he is opening 40-42%, JJ+ and AQ+ are small portion of that opening range so getting 4-bet here is possible but unlikely. You 3-bet to $150 anyways. But why raise more? And what does elastic and inelastic calling ranges have to due with anything? Well if you are 3-betting the only person I’m slightly concerned about would be the HJ. Other than that CO and Buttons ranges believe it or not are inelastic. This is preflop, not the river. Whether a hand is elastic or inelastic is more important on the turn and paramount on the river, but preflop not so much.
You are raising for a few reasons… To win the pot. To Define your range. To get value. However, should the HJ, CO, and Button call your raise, their ranges do not change that much. They may fold the bottom 5-10 % of their calling range but that’s it. Size up and charge them. Think about the subtlety of that.
A raise to $175-$200 is preferable as noted above.
You raise to $150.
BB folds. Everyone else calls. That’s how you put it. But the biggest clue here is that the HJ (obvious rec player) did not 4-bet. We can now exclude TT+ from his range. AA and KK are certainly 4-bet from rec players, they may even jam.
As noted earlier, the fact that the CO and Button call here, it doesn’t change much.
FLOP:
The flop comes J clubs, 7 hearts, 5 clubs. This is a low flop that’s wet.
As far as DRAWS go, this flop is good for the CO and Button. They have definite suited combos in their ranges. Flush draws, strait draws or both. You hold no flush blockers.
Made hands that your worried about. Jacks that have you out kicked, two pair, sets…
You hold a jack blocker, making AJ less likely. Solid! Two pair and sets, well your going to hear from them soon… I’ll bring you back to this in a sec.
You have top pair here and elect to check. Some people agree with this, but I would like to hear your reason for your check here. It obviously wasn’t to check raise. Have you constructed a basic lead range on different board types? Have you constructed a check raise range as well?
You need to be leading here with a VERY HIGH frequency. You may be losing to AJ, sets and two pair combos, but checking without planning to check raise is NEVER an option here. Remember this is a 4-way pot. You need to deny equity to straits and flush draws by charging them. There are WAY more strait and flush draws in your opponent’s ranges than there are two pair and set combos. Your said earlier you are the effective stack size here. Which means your sitting on 295 BB right now. Leverage it! If anyone is going to float you, its going to be flush and strait draws this deep. Charge them! You should be betting at least ½ pot here if not more. I could break down proper bet sizes for you but if your betting ½ pot or more here, it is INFINATELY BETTER than check calling here, regardless of “proper bet sizing.”
If you are beat here, your going to hear about it for the same reasons that you should be betting to deny equity from strait and flush draws. If you lead here and get raised, congrats your top pair is beat with a high frequency here. Would you slow play a set or two pair in a 4-way pot with draws like this if the 3-better lead into you? Nah you’re raising.
FLOP AS PLAYED:
You check.
HJ checks: This is very peculiar. Rec players tend to lead TPTK, strong flush draws, sets, two pairs. and check call open enders. If they are check raising, it’s with sets and two pairs. How aggressive was this player? Could you estimate his VPIP% or aggression factor? Even a TAG or LAG would be helpful in addition to “Rec Player.” If he is checking with a value hand, he’s going to check raise it soon.
CO checks: If he had you beat he would be betting big here, worried about flush draws, but his possible two pair and sets block strait draws. Also there are some times that he may be leading with some of his stronger draws like 86 spades or 7x of spades, but he may be check calling with them as well. No need in betting with pocket pairs here, he can check call or check fold depending on his holding. Conclusion: mostly likely doesn’t have you beat.
Button Bets $175: GTFO of here with that Mate. Why are you betting $175 into a pot of $600? You ever make a sandwich in front of your dog in your kitchen and they just stare at you with doggy eyes, hoping that they can elicit a bite or two? Betting $175 here is kinda like that. Have you ever seen a tournament reg return from break to find his fresh drink sitting there, and he zips off to find and tip the already gone drink gal $1, hoping to eventually throw a hail mary at some point asking for her number, thinking because he purposely found her and tipped her that he somehow has a chance? Long shot. Betting $175 here is kinda like that. This is the “I hope I can just pick up the dang pot” bet size. Granted he may have some equity, but he’s not beating you…
Actions on you, $175 to call: You elect to call, but as noted above I think you should be raising big here.
HJ calls $175: If he had you beat, he would usually be check raising here. He’s calling TPWK, some low pocket pairs under 10’s and lower are now floating, OESD and flush draws are now floating.
CO FOLDS: Bye Felicia. I could speculate on what he folded. The strongest holdings he could have folded here would a be PP. A SMALL… PP. Holding a small PP. Lol.
Pot: ($1125 or 112.5 bb) Good turn cards for you are, off suit kings, jacks, 2’s, 3’s, and maybe a queen here. A lot Ax club hands may be floating the flop so offsuit Aces may wouldn’t be best.
Turn: K Diamonds
Hero Bets $775: Atta boy! Finally betting out here. This is good turn card for you. At this point not a whole lot beats you here. No one should have KK here. With the widest “value” range our opponents can have here (there is no other 2 pair combo that beats you) that you are losing too are sets, which is a whopping 3% of the time here (but sets bet or check raise the flop remember), however OESD are somewhere around 53% or 80 combos of the range of holdings our opponents can have and flush draws come in around 22% or 33 combos. Your ahead here. Charge them! Your bet size is roughly 70% pot here. Not bad sizing. I think anything less is problematic. This is your last street to charge draws. If they call you, they either get there or don’t.
HJ calls $775: This guy is on a draw here often. If he has two pair now (K7, K5) groovy. Like I said earlier I’m not too worried about sets and what not. He could have also back into a week top pair with a flush draw. The K of clubs is still out there.
Button folds: Folded weakest draws and PP’s. Floated with A7, A5, and some unsuited gunshots possibly.
At this point to most P’s that looked to set mine and floated the flop are out. Any low cards that are not clubs are going to be good for you now. Any 4 or 9 completes open enders and since most unsuited gut shots have folded by now, I would say any off suit 5,7,10, 2,3, would be ok for you. I doubt HJ check called with two pair on the flop so I’m not worried about some of those cards giving him a boat.
Pot: ($2675 or 267.5 BB) Hero is effective with $2050 left. Less than a pot size river shove.
River: Q Spades. T9, and A10 Improved to a strait, but were gutshots. KQ of Clubs now has a better two pair, and this certainly can be in HJ range pre. I would expect the only gutshots to show up here to be specifically the T9 and A10 of spades. Since we ruled out sets earlier and KK,QQ, would have possibly 4-bet pre or at least lead or check raised the flop, I’m not worried about sets any more.
There are 17 combos of straits all of which beat you. 4 of which are suited, 2 of which are spade flush combos. T9 and A10 of spades. I have a hard time believing unsuited double gutshot and non-club gutshot combos are making it to the river often (ie. AT off). If they do end up there, congrats, you are winning my stack. What hands can we beat that could HJ could have played this way. Well some two pairs, which he shouldn’t really have, unless its k5 or k7, and turned two pair on the turn as well as the myriad of OESD and bricked flush draws. Believe it or not HJ has more potential bluffs in his range here, than hands that beat you. I think any of his value hands that have show down are simply going to check back. But again, he has more bricked open enders and flush draws so if you decide to check here I think he may elect to bluff here.
You can bet or check call here. If you bet, bet something smaller (say $750-1000) and mix in some posturing. Give some of his flush draws a chance to come over the top and you can snap him off as well as allowing some of his 2 pairs to call and not check for showdown value. You are looking to induce as many bluffs as possible.
You can check, ready to stack off. Most shoves from villain here are going to bricked draws… If he has it so be it.
Thanks for submitting your hand.
