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Variance is something like 16BB/100, no?
I am not a highstakes limit player but this seems very wrong, and playing hands where many people see a flop should probably increase the variance.
That is a good intuition but probably not correct, because why is full-ring less variance than SH which is less variance than HU? Variance is either 16 BB/100 or 18 BB/100 (my recollection is SH is 16 and fullring is 18. I think multiway flops may lower that because of the above trend), regardless variance times square root of 6 is going to be something comparable to 36.
Also, by filtering for flops 5 or more you are probably underestimating your winrate because lots of these hands will be from the blinds.
This thread is making me think I am way too conservative about bankroll management and taking shots IF the game is good at a much higher limit.