Quote:
Originally Posted by orb_dam_u
I don't think you understand how poker works bro.
And what gives you that impression from anything in this thread? is it the big win rate over a prolonged stretch that indicates it? All I am saying is that I have had a long stretch of great EV during which I have massively under performed in actual winnings, and now I am going throw a bit of a EV down swing in which I am still getting no luck.
I am going through a swing where I am constantly being beaten on the river by villains who should never be in the hand, who have chased way beyond their equity, and who magically hit big hands on the river, often at the same time that my hand improves significantly. I keep coming up in situations where I flop Top 2 or TPTK on a draw heavy board only to get raised or jammed on by a dude who flopped a set.
I've been digging into my poker tracker stats. Here is what I have found so far:
Sets:
In December I've play 8300 hands and got pocket pairs 428 times, this is 1% below the normal rate and saw the flop 313 times. Of the 313 times I saw the flop I flopped a set 30 times, which is 9.5% of the time which is 2.3% lower than what it should be. So I am getting less PP than I should and flopping less sets than I should...and sets are the big money maker.
Nut flushes:
In December I have seen the flop with 313 Ax suited hands and have flopped the nut flush draw 32 times. Of the 32 times I flopped the nut flush (which is 1% below expected) I have hit the nut-flush by the river only 8x or 25% of the time. So, whereas I should have hit the nut-flush 11 times I have only hit it 8x which is more than 25% below expected.
Long story short in the two hand categories in which I am supposed to win the most, sets and flushes, I am running significantly below expected. The funny part of it is that when I was running really well, August until December, things in these categories were better but still not great:
August-December: just over 6% of hands dealt to me were pocket pairs, which is right on EV. Of those, I saw a flop with 1783 hands and in those hands I hit a set on the flop 192 times, or 10.7%, which is still 1% below EV. As for the nut flushes, I was basically right on EV between August and December at 36%. So its not as if I was going through an amazing stretch, at least with flushes and sets when I was running good. Most of it it was getting villains to the river with worse hands and winning...now I am getting them to bet flop and turn while behind only to nail me on the river.
Sure, some of the time its me trying to get too much value out of TPTK hands, but a lot of the time I will check call a 30% pot bet on the river with TPTK vs a straight.