Not gonna lie here - this is really starting to get to me. October seemed like it would be a good month. I was running slightly over EV - until the last few days of the month when suddenly I dropped another few buy-ins below EV. That damn gap never seems to get any closer. This is at NL50 at which I have run 14.21 bb/100 in EV since August 1 - I want to move up to NL200, which is the next level up here, but its hard to build the roll when you are running 22 buy-ins below EV over 34,000 hands!

End Rant!

that's a lot of sklansky bucks

Lucky you. Running below EV and still winning is the best scenario to not go off the rails in the pokerz.

For sure - lucky unlucky me! I can’t imaging how I would feel if I was losing like this. I think I would be pretty hard to do though given my bb/100 EV!

It happens mate, such is poker unfortunately.

Try not to give this too much thought, nothing constructive can come of it. All you are doing is expending resources and energy over something you have no control over.

It is also incredibly beneficial for you to step out of this mindset now, because the same 22 buyin's as you move up stakes is expensive, so better to not get attached to this side of thinking.

Great EV, just keep doing what you are doing and it all balances itself out ****eventually!****

lol stingaments

When I say it gets to me, that is whenever I look at my report - it doesn’t affect my play on a day to day basis. I know that I have maintained a pretty incredible EV over 34k hands - no point in changing how I play!

A good chunk of this has been caused by a near absolute failure to win with AK in coin-flip all-ins. Last I filtered for AK I saw that I was like $250 below EV when all-in with AK. The other is losing when I get it all-in with 70% equity plus. just last night I lose a hand that I got all-in on the turn with like 90% to win...seems to happen too often.

Knowledge is power. You know what's happening, that's all that counts. Other scenario's without having a grasp on reality would include thinking you somehow boss the variance as well.

In the end, you should count your blessings here. And indeed, even thought it's a contradictory irrational thought when taken from the same point of view that rationalizes the downswing, it's actually a perfect time in once career to have this sort of thing happen, seeing the stakes are relatively low. Because variance induced momentum obviously still matters even if Slansky bucks is all that really counts in theory.

You should just praise yourself for good bankroll management and look forward to the future.

It is a lot easier to stay positive in this situation when you are still a winning player despite the negative variance! If I were playing this well and losing it would be tough!

Also, I’m not one that goes on tilt or gets overly worked up in the game. Sure, when my AK loses an all-in to K3s the expletives will fly but it doesn’t change how I play. Philosophically I have always argued that we should only worry about things we can control - since I cannot control variance I either have to accept it or quit...

God, would be nice if at some point the EV lines and winning lines would come closer together. Instead the look like an ever widening mouth! So far this month - over 4 days of playing - I am already down nearly 3 buy-ins below EV.

Correction: I am now 3.625 buy-ins below EV already in November, and I am 25 buy-ins below EV over 34,500 hands!

Keep on grindin

Your sample size is still pretty small - here is mine, same stakes as you

It's horrible - I feel for you especially considering your actual winnings are negative. You seem to be on a prolonged EV downswing thought over your last 90,000 hands. I am no expert at reading graphs but based on the nature of the downswing I would bet you are getting it all-in a lot with ~40-50% equity...am I wrong?

There are, I think, 2 reasons why my EV to winnings gap never closes up: 1) I lost pretty much every flip all-in, and 2) I don't get it in very often in cases where I am far enough behind that getting lucky will make that much of a difference to the graph ie. I rarely get it in for a lot of BB when I have like 10-20% equity so I am not often in scenarios where my green line is going to skyrocket while my yellow line drops...

November update: Still can't win a flip. I am fast approaching running 29 buy-ins below EV now over a span of 40,000 hands.

you're still killing it though. Running that far below EV and still being a good winner is a testament to your edge.

My worst ever was 65BI below EV at 10-25NL at GG in 2 ish months in 2020 think over like 200k+ hands.

Things are definitely going well. Over the span of those 40,000 hands I have run at about 17bb/100, and in November I am running at an even better 32bb/100 hands over 7,000 hands with session win rates of 56% and 59% respectively. It is hard to believe but even at 32bb/100 I am still -5 buy-ins over the course of November.

Yes, I do seem to have an edge. While I certainly understand that 32bb/100 is not sustainable long-term, I think I can maintain 20bb/100 against my competition. I wouldn't say I am a great player though - I have a lot to learn about ranges and to think more about GTO when I move up. My win-rate is a combination of being a solid player against weak competition at NL50, learning to identify the strong and weak players and to target the latter, and learning to exploit the players at that level.

I am not certain how my NL50 game will translate to the next level up here, which is NL200.

The inevitable has happened - I've gone on a bit of an EV downswing over the last few weeks. It has been nothing but top pair/top 2 coming against sets...trips beaten by better trips...flushes by full houses. A lot of times these are hands I can't get away from. Like flopping top 2 on a boar of A-10-5 with a flush draw and getting jammed on by a set of 5's...getting jammed on the river with top 2 in a 3bet pot when villain shows up with 57o in a 3bet pot for the straight...I cannot count the number of times I hit top pair only to get called down to the river by a dude with Ax to have an A come on the river - likely similar to the number of times I've made 2 pair on the river only to have it complete a straight for the villain.

Ultimately, the issue I am having is the result of my style of play that was working so well earlier. I play good hands, bet aggressively and see a lot of showdowns against villains with weaker hands...it is just now I am not hitting my draws and the villains keep making hands on the river. I guess it is just one of those times when I have to be happy that I have good equity as I bet flop and turn...

Also - not only am I running like poop but I’m -4 buy-ins below My shitty EV for the month

I don't think you understand how poker works bro.

And what gives you that impression from anything in this thread? is it the big win rate over a prolonged stretch that indicates it? All I am saying is that I have had a long stretch of great EV during which I have massively under performed in actual winnings, and now I am going throw a bit of a EV down swing in which I am still getting no luck.

I am going through a swing where I am constantly being beaten on the river by villains who should never be in the hand, who have chased way beyond their equity, and who magically hit big hands on the river, often at the same time that my hand improves significantly. I keep coming up in situations where I flop Top 2 or TPTK on a draw heavy board only to get raised or jammed on by a dude who flopped a set.

I've been digging into my poker tracker stats. Here is what I have found so far:

Sets:

In December I've play 8300 hands and got pocket pairs 428 times, this is 1% below the normal rate and saw the flop 313 times. Of the 313 times I saw the flop I flopped a set 30 times, which is 9.5% of the time which is 2.3% lower than what it should be. So I am getting less PP than I should and flopping less sets than I should...and sets are the big money maker.

Nut flushes:

In December I have seen the flop with 313 Ax suited hands and have flopped the nut flush draw 32 times. Of the 32 times I flopped the nut flush (which is 1% below expected) I have hit the nut-flush by the river only 8x or 25% of the time. So, whereas I should have hit the nut-flush 11 times I have only hit it 8x which is more than 25% below expected.


Long story short in the two hand categories in which I am supposed to win the most, sets and flushes, I am running significantly below expected. The funny part of it is that when I was running really well, August until December, things in these categories were better but still not great:

August-December: just over 6% of hands dealt to me were pocket pairs, which is right on EV. Of those, I saw a flop with 1783 hands and in those hands I hit a set on the flop 192 times, or 10.7%, which is still 1% below EV. As for the nut flushes, I was basically right on EV between August and December at 36%. So its not as if I was going through an amazing stretch, at least with flushes and sets when I was running good. Most of it it was getting villains to the river with worse hands and winning...now I am getting them to bet flop and turn while behind only to nail me on the river.

Sure, some of the time its me trying to get too much value out of TPTK hands, but a lot of the time I will check call a 30% pot bet on the river with TPTK vs a straight.

You just proved my point. thanks.

wrong

u even take a biz stats course at a local juco bruh, lulz

They are for me - I've made more +ev with sets than with any other hand.

Standart