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Old 12-03-2013, 08:17 PM   #276
demetri1978
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

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Originally Posted by David123 View Post
prop bet ratio on 2+2 is something like 7-8/10 ops win, and they always get great odds. it quite lol actually.

so im betting on OP here
Well ,i think the odds where close to right on this one ?

I am 5-0 winning vs prop bets here on 2+2 (but maybe my first loss is coming up)
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:29 PM   #277
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days



Gonna sleep for a few hours.
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Old 12-04-2013, 08:24 AM   #278
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Just saw this for the first time, so insane! Glgl keep it up
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Old 12-04-2013, 11:11 PM   #279
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

About the odds, 1:2.75 was +ev for me I guess, but with 1:2 I honestly think it is around break even. Which is still good for me because I'm putting way more hours in than I would have done without this bet.
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Old 12-05-2013, 02:46 AM   #280
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

Congratulations Hero Value, don't underrate your own accomplishments because of other people who might got more of something.

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Old 12-05-2013, 03:49 AM   #281
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

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Congratulations Hero Value, don't underrate your own accomplishments because of other people who might got more of something.

Thanks man, appreciated .
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Old 12-05-2013, 03:56 AM   #282
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

nice 20k day! keep it up
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Old 12-05-2013, 05:11 AM   #283
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

[ ] 500k to go
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Old 12-05-2013, 09:34 AM   #284
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

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About the odds, 1:2.75 was +ev for me I guess, but with 1:2 I honestly think it is around break even. Which is still good for me because I'm putting way more hours in than I would have done without this bet.
Agree
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Old 12-06-2013, 12:46 PM   #285
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days


OK this kinda blows, 82k in 6 days, in a month where I need 21k a day on average.

Edit: had 2 more goldens tho! A bronze 200 and 100
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Old 12-06-2013, 08:43 PM   #286
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

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Originally Posted by demetri1978 View Post
Well ,i think the odds where close to right on this one ?

I am 5-0 winning vs prop bets here on 2+2 (but maybe my first loss is coming up)
selection bias then for me. only seen like 2 OPs lose out of a lot of ppl. The OP always has perfect info, and the bettors have inperfect info. can't see how taking a bet on a site like this is good unless u think the OP has a problem in reviewing their own situation whilst having perfect visibility(perfect info on situation) as a vacuum play, taking the OPs side to me looks like a winning play, assuming avg intelligence on the OPs

however im no expert, this is just my view of prop bets on this site and others. and assuming an OP puts even odds on an effort seems very optimistic about the presence of altruism in this world.

Last edited by David123; 12-06-2013 at 08:50 PM.
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Old 12-07-2013, 02:53 AM   #287
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

I mostly agree David, however there are almost always unforeseen circumstances, and also particularly on a challenge like this, people can often underestimated just how hard it is going to be and what exactly is going to require. E.g. having a messed up sleeping pattern which leads to not sleeping enough, which leads to not being able to put in as much volume because of mental fatigue etc. which carries on to the following days. Things like that are obviously important for something like this and can easily let slip if not very careful - just look at the challenge WCG failed a while back.
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Old 12-07-2013, 03:05 AM   #288
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

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About the odds, 1:2.75 was +ev for me I guess, but with 1:2 I honestly think it is around break even. Which is still good for me because I'm putting way more hours in than I would have done without this bet.
I would agree, but doesn't your EV drop pretty significantly when you are constantly hardcore multi tabling all day everyday, and so it would be higher without the bet? Or is that not so much of an issue in hypers and you can auto-pilot basically everything? And also must be -LifeEV and -GirlfriendEV to be doing almost nothing else everyday for 2.3 months
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Old 12-08-2013, 02:35 AM   #289
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

2 more golden today :O Bronze 100 and 200.


PokerStars is losing faith in me:
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Old 12-08-2013, 04:54 AM   #290
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

Gogo OP

^LOL got one of those the other day too. Fun to have to turn off both TN and stars hotkeys and pull out the onscreen kb since mine is ****ed

Last edited by Rusemandingo; 12-08-2013 at 05:02 AM.
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Old 12-08-2013, 05:07 AM   #291
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

'DOOMED' ??
They really are losing faith in you.
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Old 12-08-2013, 07:36 PM   #292
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

GL op

gogogo
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Old 12-08-2013, 08:21 PM   #293
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

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2 more golden today :O Bronze 100 and 200.


PokerStars is losing faith in me:
And I am gaining faith in PS! Didn't think that they would check things like this...

GL for the remaining weeks!
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Old 12-09-2013, 04:05 AM   #294
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

First back to back 20k days I think.


No more golden sngs
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Old 12-09-2013, 04:15 AM   #295
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

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I would agree, but doesn't your EV drop pretty significantly when you are constantly hardcore multi tabling all day everyday, and so it would be higher without the bet? Or is that not so much of an issue in hypers and you can auto-pilot basically everything? And also must be -LifeEV and -GirlfriendEV to be doing almost nothing else everyday for 2.3 months
Yes it kinda does, but without the bet I would be playing less games and I don't think that if I play 1.6 times more games my roi would be 1.6 times better if I didn't play those extra games.
I really enjoy the challenge in this and 2013 was the best year in my life so I wouldn't consider it -lifeEV to close it with winning this thing. It is a bit -gfEV tho :X. Last year I was also sort of struggling in the end to get 1M, than in January we went here
which made up for the lost time for quite a bit. So planning on doing something similar and we'll be all good .
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Old 12-09-2013, 07:49 AM   #296
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

OP is boss!
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Old 12-09-2013, 01:41 PM   #297
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

No more golden SNG.... I didnt hit ONE.... (((((((((((((((((( they should make happy hour(s) golden SNG;s or something.
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Old 12-10-2013, 05:56 AM   #298
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

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Old 12-10-2013, 06:25 AM   #299
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

I thought you were going to smash this, but it's going to be close...
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Old 12-10-2013, 11:43 AM   #300
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Re: 2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

Glgl
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