2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days - Page 12

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2013 - 2 million VPP prop bet. 1160000 VPP - 71 days

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12-03-2013 , 08:17 PM

#276

demetri1978

See My Staking Thread

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,809

Quote:

Originally Posted by David123

prop bet ratio on 2+2 is something like 7-8/10 ops win, and they always get great odds. it quite lol actually.

so im betting on OP here

Well ,i think the odds where close to right on this one ?

I am 5-0 winning vs prop bets here on 2+2 (but maybe my first loss is coming up)

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12-03-2013 , 11:29 PM

#277

mobguy

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 143

Gonna sleep for a few hours.

Quote

12-04-2013 , 08:24 AM

#278

ONLYRAISEAA

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 4,880

Just saw this for the first time, so insane! Glgl keep it up

Quote

12-04-2013 , 11:11 PM

#279

mobguy

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 143

About the odds, 1:2.75 was +ev for me I guess, but with 1:2 I honestly think it is around break even. Which is still good for me because I'm putting way more hours in than I would have done without this bet.

Quote

12-05-2013 , 02:46 AM

#280

mobguy

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 143

Congratulations Hero Value, don't underrate your own accomplishments because of other people who might got more of something.

Quote

12-05-2013 , 03:49 AM

#281

Hero Value

BBV Series Inaugural Champ

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 9,258

Quote:

Originally Posted by mobguy

Congratulations Hero Value, don't underrate your own accomplishments because of other people who might got more of something.

Thanks man, appreciated

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12-05-2013 , 03:56 AM

#282

cjbridle1

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 101

nice 20k day! keep it up

Quote

12-05-2013 , 05:11 AM

#283

chaserr

centurion

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 103

[ ] 500k to go

Quote

12-05-2013 , 09:34 AM

#284

demetri1978

See My Staking Thread

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,809

Quote:

Originally Posted by mobguy

Agree

Quote

12-06-2013 , 12:46 PM

#285

mobguy

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 143

OK this kinda blows, 82k in 6 days, in a month where I need 21k a day on average.

Edit: had 2 more goldens tho! A bronze 200 and 100

Quote

12-06-2013 , 08:43 PM

#286

David123

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 8,818

Quote:

Originally Posted by demetri1978

Well ,i think the odds where close to right on this one ?

I am 5-0 winning vs prop bets here on 2+2 (but maybe my first loss is coming up)

selection bias then for me. only seen like 2 OPs lose out of a lot of ppl. The OP always has perfect info, and the bettors have inperfect info. can't see how taking a bet on a site like this is good unless u think the OP has a problem in reviewing their own situation whilst having perfect visibility(perfect info on situation) as a vacuum play, taking the OPs side to me looks like a winning play, assuming avg intelligence on the OPs

however im no expert, this is just my view of prop bets on this site and others. and assuming an OP puts even odds on an effort seems very optimistic about the presence of altruism in this world.

Last edited by David123; 12-06-2013 at 08:50 PM.

Quote

12-07-2013 , 02:53 AM

#287

Hero Value

BBV Series Inaugural Champ

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 9,258

I mostly agree David, however there are almost always unforeseen circumstances, and also particularly on a challenge like this, people can often underestimated just how hard it is going to be and what exactly is going to require. E.g. having a messed up sleeping pattern which leads to not sleeping enough, which leads to not being able to put in as much volume because of mental fatigue etc. which carries on to the following days. Things like that are obviously important for something like this and can easily let slip if not very careful - just look at the challenge WCG failed a while back.

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12-07-2013 , 03:05 AM

#288

Hero Value

BBV Series Inaugural Champ

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 9,258

Quote:

Originally Posted by mobguy

I would agree, but doesn't your EV drop pretty significantly when you are constantly hardcore multi tabling all day everyday, and so it would be higher without the bet? Or is that not so much of an issue in hypers and you can auto-pilot basically everything? And also must be -LifeEV and -GirlfriendEV to be doing almost nothing else everyday for 2.3 months

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12-08-2013 , 02:35 AM

#289

mobguy

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 143

2 more golden today :O Bronze 100 and 200.

PokerStars is losing faith in me:

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12-08-2013 , 04:54 AM

#290

Rusemandingo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 14,067

Gogo OP

^LOL got one of those the other day too. Fun to have to turn off both TN and stars hotkeys and pull out the onscreen kb since mine is ****ed

Last edited by Rusemandingo; 12-08-2013 at 05:02 AM.

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12-08-2013 , 05:07 AM

#291

cjbridle1

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 101

'DOOMED' ??
They really are losing faith in you.

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12-08-2013 , 07:36 PM

#292

chrissie

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 68

GL op

gogogo

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12-08-2013 , 08:21 PM

#293

TH_Poker

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 1,502

Quote:

Originally Posted by mobguy

2 more golden today :O Bronze 100 and 200.

PokerStars is losing faith in me:

And I am gaining faith in PS!

Didn't think that they would check things like this...

GL for the remaining weeks!

Quote

12-09-2013 , 04:05 AM

#294

mobguy

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 143

First back to back 20k days I think.

No more golden sngs

Quote

12-09-2013 , 04:15 AM

#295

mobguy

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 143

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hero Value

Yes it kinda does, but without the bet I would be playing less games and I don't think that if I play 1.6 times more games my roi would be 1.6 times better if I didn't play those extra games.
I really enjoy the challenge in this and 2013 was the best year in my life so I wouldn't consider it -lifeEV to close it with winning this thing. It is a bit -gfEV tho :X. Last year I was also sort of struggling in the end to get 1M, than in January we went here