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Originally Posted by IHaveThreePair
Just got round to watching the first Twitch stream on the PS School - learned some super useful things so thanks a bunch!
One question - do you think that doing these videos is going to be -EV in the long run? I mean I assume Stars are paying you for doing them, so I guess that's factored into your deal with them, but how much do you expect it to affect your ROI?
Hey thanks a lot! I am really pleased to hear it was helpful to you
Regarding your question - I'm not positive, but no I don't think that this will be a -EV thing for me or anyone else and it has nothing to do with what Stars is paying me. Here is how I see it:
1. It takes players a long time to develop strategies to exploit me
2. Clashing with the players who do actually take the time to study and develop a useful strategy to exploit me doesn't happen very often. And when it does happen, it's a small sample.
3. More and more players who have never played the 180 format are dropping down to play and 'try them out'. As you all know, it's not easy to have a great first 100 game sample at 180-mans. Most regs who play them will not enjoy them and eventually return to their normal grind after losing some money at the 180s.
4. Even when players see how wide I am raising and how badly they are being abused - whatever adjustments they do make in-game are not enough. It's very difficult to reverse the whip and put the pressure on me - you have to use some really 'risky' combos of cards in ICM settings to truly exploit me and no one is doing it.
5. When everyone does start playing better and 3betting/shoving on my open raises more often, I too can adjust and counter their counter-strategy. For example, I have already started raise-calling all ins wider against players who I know have seen my content and are making adjustments. I've caught several of my friends/students 3bet jamming super wide only to get called by my K9o or A2o for 20bb BTN vs BB.
6. Volume. No one puts in any volume. Well, a few , but not enough to make a big difference. A lot of players playing a few games per day won't do much no matter how well they are adjusting to me. It takes volume to make a real difference.
7. The fear-equity I have already gained and will continue to gain overshadows the potential of being exploited in a massive way. A lot of regs will decide I am the player they don't want to tangle with - take a moment to realize how insanely valuable that is. Examples:
-They start folding buttons that they would have normally raised because I am in the big blind
-They don't defend their BB that they would have normally defended because I am the raiser and in position.
-They give walks
-They don't bluff in big spots
-And many more
8. Recreational players are being dumped into the games because of me. Yes, maybe some winning 18man/9man/cash game regulars drop down and take up space for a while, but they aren't coming down to steal my money - they are coming down to steal all the fun players' money. I will be responsible for 180s being the most popular tournament choice for beginners though, mark these words
So basically, it's sorta deep but no I don't think that this is ever going to become -ev for me, or anyone else. It's all about perspective sometime - but this comes down to execution. Poker is still crushable because players don't execute at these levels and the players who are good enough to learn, adjust and execute - well they can win more money playing other games. I am just down here because it's 'my thing' - not because it's my most profitable option.