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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

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Old 06-20-2008, 11:57 AM   #126
customer_nr1
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Montezuma21 View Post
Why isn't the highest point of the graph at 50%? Isn't he equally as likely to run good as he is to run bad?
He is, the graph is symmetrical. It is a probability density function not a cumulative distribution function.
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Old 06-20-2008, 11:59 AM   #127
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Re: 08 so far...

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Originally Posted by Tweed _Man View Post
I am starting to doubt the accuracy of these EV graphs... everyone seems to run well below expectation.
stop being so ******ed.
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Old 06-20-2008, 12:19 PM   #128
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by customer_nr1 View Post
He is, the graph is symmetrical. It is a probability density function not a cumulative distribution function.
Would you mind explaining this in a language that a history grad would understand?

I kind of get what you're saying, that if it were cumulative it wouldn't be a bell curve, it would just go straight up at an angle correct?. but what would it mean exactly if he were at the 40% point in the graph, and how does 40% relate to this?
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Old 06-20-2008, 12:52 PM   #129
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Re: 08 so far...

I opened this expecting a thread about Omaha8. Instead I found a tale of horror and woe. So, basically what I expected.
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Old 06-20-2008, 01:22 PM   #130
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Re: 08 so far...

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Originally Posted by sluggger5x View Post
> I strongly suggest that you visit the poker forums in the link below; it is the largest poker forum that is visited by many poker enthusiasts such as yourself, and is an unbiased third party to our site (and any other poker sites in business). I believe that the voice of the general poker community will be more persuasive in dissuading you of your belief that online poker is rigged.
>
> https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/
>
Um... Why is FT trying to educate fish?
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Old 06-20-2008, 01:53 PM   #131
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Smile Re: 08 so far...

fwiw, back in March, in a one week period I turned $50 into $4000 by cashing in in some tourneys, playing 5-10, then 8-16, then 15-30 lhe (I'm a casual player, so bankroll management isn't high on my list). It was by far the sickest I've ever run.

So it all evens out
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Old 06-20-2008, 01:55 PM   #132
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Montezuma21 View Post
Would you mind explaining this in a language that a history grad would understand?

I kind of get what you're saying, that if it were cumulative it wouldn't be a bell curve, it would just go straight up at an angle correct?. but what would it mean exactly if he were at the 40% point in the graph, and how does 40% relate to this?
This is the standard normal distributive curve: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution

The red graphs are the ones important to us.

Mostly we would not ask how what the probability is that Hero runs at exactly mean, but more often we ask what is the probability that Hero runs in whatever range. Within 1 standard deviation of the mean would be 68.2%, for instance, while less than one standard dev below would be 15.9%, etc.

In the case of this program, we have the distribution of winnings, and we know how much Hero has won, so we simply compute the probability that Hero has won <= that amount, which is where the 0.0039% number comes from. If slugger had won exactly the mean, it would be 50%.
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Old 06-20-2008, 02:06 PM   #133
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tweed _Man View Post
I am starting to doubt the accuracy of these EV graphs... everyone seems to run well below expectation.
What, you think all those ****ing luckboxes out there who run dozens of stacks above EV are going to post their EV graph for everyone to see?
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Old 06-20-2008, 02:08 PM   #134
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Re: 08 so far...

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Originally Posted by T Almeida View Post
I have something similar at NL50 over 150k hands.


At hand 80k, I was so happy, but it didnt last for too long.....



Another 3+ standard deviation running bad player. Seriously, how the **** do you guys keep playing? Are you perpetually unlucky in other aspects of life?
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Old 06-20-2008, 02:31 PM   #135
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Montezuma21 View Post
Would you mind explaining this in a language that a history grad would understand?

I kind of get what you're saying, that if it were cumulative it wouldn't be a bell curve, it would just go straight up at an angle correct?. but what would it mean exactly if he were at the 40% point in the graph, and how does 40% relate to this?
Yeah the cumulative distribution function of this distribution would go up and it would look kind of like an integral symbol. Btw because he is equally as likely to run better as he is to run worse than expectation, at the 0 point that function has the value of 0.5.
But in the probability density function, the values in themselves have basically no meaning because the probability that his winnings will be exactly let's say $1205 is 0. This is because it is a continuous function (Like if you pick a number from 1 to 10, the chance that you pick 5 is 0 because there's an infinite number of numbers between 1 and 10 -- it does not actually apply to poker but w/e).
An area under this graph shows the likelihood that the result will fall in that interval. So in the original graph that p=0.0039 meant that the area under the graph between -infinite and -4825.4 is 0.0039.
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Old 06-20-2008, 02:33 PM   #136
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sphere99991 View Post
This is the standard normal distributive curve: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution

The red graphs are the ones important to us.

Mostly we would not ask how what the probability is that Hero runs at exactly mean, but more often we ask what is the probability that Hero runs in whatever range. Within 1 standard deviation of the mean would be 68.2%, for instance, while less than one standard dev below would be 15.9%, etc.

In the case of this program, we have the distribution of winnings, and we know how much Hero has won, so we simply compute the probability that Hero has won <= that amount, which is where the 0.0039% number comes from. If slugger had won exactly the mean, it would be 50%.
So, if OP had won $1358 (exactly at the centre), he would have won the mean and the number at the bottom would be 50%. The x-axis would read 40% because there's a 40% chance he is in that band (whatever the bands may be- i don't think they're marked on the graph, just assumed, right? I also assume that "standard deviation" is one such measure, correct?)

But we have to use them because the probability of hero running at exactly mean is 1 divided by infinity.

thanks.
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Old 06-20-2008, 02:35 PM   #137
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Re: 08 so far...

what is your BB/100 under that unlucky period?

Just curious.
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Old 06-20-2008, 02:38 PM   #138
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by hackers238 View Post
Um... Why is FT trying to educate fish?
I guess if the fish would be better they could play more before they bust -> they would generate more rake and FT would be happier.
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Old 06-20-2008, 02:42 PM   #139
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by customer_nr1 View Post
Yeah the cumulative distribution function of this distribution would go up and it would look kind of like an integral symbol. Btw because he is equally as likely to run better as he is to run worse than expectation, at the 0 point that function has the value of 0.5.
But in the probability density function, the values in themselves have basically no meaning because the probability that his winnings will be exactly let's say $1205 is 0. This is because it is a continuous function (Like if you pick any number from 1 to 10, the chance that you pick 5 is 0 because there's an infinite number of numbers between 1 and 10 -- it does not actually apply to poker but w/e).
An area under this graph shows the likelihood that the result will fall in that interval. So in the original graph that p=0.0039 meant that the area under tha graph between -infinite and -4825.4 is 0.0039.
ah ok, so the intervals are determined not by numerical amounts (like, for example, the $500 intervals on the y-axis but actually by the point where the curve and the y-axis interact. weird. i'm guessing it has to do with standard deviation, though.

So there's like a 0.05% chance that OP would have won between $4500 and $4000 and a 40% chance that OP would have won between $500 and $2200? (approx).
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Old 06-20-2008, 02:44 PM   #140
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Re: 08 so far...

I'm pretty sure OP has tinkered with the settings somehow, that line is way to straight. I think there were some early EV graph posts where you the lines diverged linearely and one had to uncheck something to make them right.
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Old 06-20-2008, 03:12 PM   #141
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Montezuma21 View Post
ah ok, so the intervals are determined not by numerical amounts (like, for example, the $500 intervals on the y-axis but actually by the point where the curve and the y-axis interact. weird. i'm guessing it has to do with standard deviation, though.

So there's like a 0.05% chance that OP would have won between $4500 and $4000 and a 40% chance that OP would have won between $500 and $2200? (approx).
no, the values on the y axis don't actually tell you anything. if you'd like to know the probability that OP would have won between $4500 and $4000 then you have to calculate this area:


In order to do that you need use the graph of the other function, the cumulative probability function where you can substract those two values as you did. Or you can search the numbers from a z-table. Or you can use a calculator that does it for you. Like this: http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/z_table.html
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Old 06-20-2008, 03:13 PM   #142
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Re: 08 so far...

rigged
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Old 06-20-2008, 04:00 PM   #143
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Re: 08 so far...

As one of the guys you play vs, I can honestly say I feel bad for you. Just disgusting...and I thought I ran bad, live.


I do ask a small favor. When you notice your AI luck trending the other way, just send me a PM to stay the **** outta your way, please?

Good luck in the future vs all but me!


On the serious side, seriously impressive 'fighting' thru it. Keep your head up bro and know that as bad as the run is/has been, it HAS to turn around. If you wanna go over hands or sweat a sess AIM me (SirFelixCat1112).

Good luck and it will turn around!
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Old 06-20-2008, 10:05 PM   #144
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
The doom switch on your account has been turned off and it is now completely up to you, on wether or not you win or lose.
the sick part is that the doomswitch is real, and i believe Matthew at Full Tilt Support really did turn it off for OP - they probably doomswitched him accidentally or as part of a study
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Old 06-20-2008, 10:07 PM   #145
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Re: 08 so far...

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Originally Posted by FishSticks View Post
the sick part is that the doomswitch is real, and i believe Matthew at Full Tilt Support really did turn it off for OP - they probably doomswitched him accidentally or as part of a study
a sort of "The Job of Poker", if you will
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Old 06-21-2008, 12:15 AM   #146
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Re: 08 so far...

Well, picked up 13 buyins at NL50 since yesterday. Moved up to NL100 when I saw this villian running at 96/65. I seriously don't know what I do to deserve these things....


Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked


BTN: $152.65
Hero (SB): $100.00
BB: $825.15
UTG: $21.00
CO: $41.05

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with A A
1 fold, CO calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10, BB calls $9, CO calls $9

Flop: ($30.00) 7 8 6 (3 players)
Hero bets $30, BB calls $30, CO raises to $31.05 all in, Hero calls $1.05, BB calls $1.05

Turn: ($123.15) 2 (3 players - 1 is all in)
Hero bets $58.95 all in, BB calls $58.95

River: ($241.05) 7

Spoiler:
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Old 06-21-2008, 12:26 AM   #147
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by FishSticks View Post
the sick part is that the doomswitch is real, and i believe Matthew at Full Tilt Support really did turn it off for OP - they probably doomswitched him accidentally or as part of a study
lol

reminded me of this

http://www.theonion.com/content/news..._time_with_the
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Old 06-21-2008, 01:17 AM   #148
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisTC View Post
What, you think all those ****ing luckboxes out there who run dozens of stacks above EV are going to post their EV graph for everyone to see?
I'll oblige, just under +15buyins allin-ev



[x] would still be up $ if -60buyins below allin-ev
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Old 06-21-2008, 01:21 AM   #149
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Re: 08 so far...

hu4rollz bottomset?
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Old 06-21-2008, 01:31 AM   #150
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by BobbyLight View Post
Yo Slugger,

To discuss this more with you I think the best means you can take is a lawyer. It almost worked for me. Your account is obviously rigged and you are part of a Truman Show fixed operation. They are messing with you and you don't realize you are part of a large and sick experiment.

Press charges.
I can't tell whether FGators made an awesome level here, or if he just still believes that the sites are intentionally rigged against specific players. Anybody?
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