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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

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Old 06-16-2009, 10:28 AM   #601
Mik1w
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Re: 08 so far...

how the hell can all in luck look like that. HOW THE HELL!! Not just that it's way down, but that it's way down in such a straight line.
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Old 06-16-2009, 10:49 AM   #602
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Re: 08 so far...

update!
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Old 06-16-2009, 11:44 AM   #603
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mik1w View Post
how the hell can all in luck look like that. HOW THE HELL!! Not just that it's way down, but that it's way down in such a straight line.
Got no idea. I just grind and lose all the flips...
Well, maybe next 300K hands it'll be the other way around, we'll see...
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Old 06-16-2009, 11:48 AM   #604
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Royston Vasey View Post
The c..t who made both lines the same colour wants shooting imho.
Click the bar to view it in full size...
...or in 60% of full size on your 15" CRT...
... or whatvr...
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Old 06-16-2009, 11:53 AM   #605
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Re: 08 so far...

cliff notes please
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Old 06-16-2009, 12:16 PM   #606
Mik1w
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Re: 08 so far...

I can't comprhend it. one in a million that that graph is zero mean and high variance, it ooks SO much more like -ve mean and extremely low variance. Cliffs: this guy is one unlucky player.

Also I don't get what slansky bucks even means. It doesn't explain it anywhere and the whole idea of "profit you make if you can see their cards" seems truly worthless in practice as you're never gonna get to showdown most of the time. but that all-in ev looks sick.
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Old 06-16-2009, 01:07 PM   #607
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by SoulPower View Post
If it's really that bad just stop. Plus your HEM EV that you're so obsessed with has been break even for 100k.
pretty sure you would be complaining if you were in OP's position
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Old 06-16-2009, 03:12 PM   #608
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Re: 08 so far...

Sorry boss. This reminds me of early325's post last week.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...-wrong-505359/

Possibly worse than your run (down 115 BI over 160k hands), if it makes you feel any better, but probably not.

edit:
[ ] realized this post was 2 years old

Last edited by mhalberstram; 06-16-2009 at 03:35 PM.
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Old 06-16-2009, 03:18 PM   #609
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Re: 08 so far...

I've experienced a 85k losing stretch before. My allin EV didn't look quite as bad but I assure you I ran ungodly bad in other spots.

It turns around.

Honestly when mass tabling nl this is like half a months work. Just keep on plugging away. Play a bit tighter to reduce your variance in the meantime.

edit; i just realized this post was from 2 yrs ago lol who bumped im sure OP has jumped off the George Washington Bridge by now
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Old 06-16-2009, 03:20 PM   #610
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by mhalberstram View Post
Sorry boss. This reminds me of early325's post last week.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54...-wrong-505359/

Possibly worse than your run (down 115 BI over 160k hands), if it makes you feel any better, but probably not.
that is ****ing ridiciulous
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Old 06-16-2009, 06:35 PM   #611
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Re: 08 so far...

play 50 NL

















IMO
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Old 06-16-2009, 11:30 PM   #612
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Re: 08 so far...

sorry you're running that bad OP.

In case ppl think that OP's net winnings in allin pots will eventually (i.e., as # played hands -> infinity) equal his allin EV, I want to mention the following important fact from statistical theory here.

If you flip a coin n times, as the number of flips n approaches infinity, although the expected percentage difference of heads and tails approaches zero, the expected difference between the number of heads and tails approaches infinity!

If you want to translate this to allin-luck in poker winnings, this practically means:

Although:
(won (or lost) $ when allin - allin-EV) / (# played hands) -> 0 as # played hands -> infinity.

On the other hand:
| won (or lost) $ when allin - allin-EV | -> infinity as # played hands -> infinity.

This last equation means that the absolute difference between actual net money won and allin-EV will theoretically tend to infinity (from one direction or the other). Think about it.
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Old 06-17-2009, 01:20 AM   #613
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by CompEng View Post
This last equation means that the absolute difference between actual net money won and allin-EV will theoretically tend to infinity (from one direction or the other). Think about it.
This is true, but it should take far, far longer (who knows how many millions of hands) to reach -100 buyins.
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Old 06-17-2009, 01:37 AM   #614
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Re: 08 so far...

Update on 09' so far slugger?
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Old 06-19-2009, 01:47 PM   #615
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by p4ntyraid View Post
Update on 09' so far slugger?
Still the most disturbing thing I've ever experienced in my life.

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Old 06-19-2009, 02:38 PM   #616
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Re: 08 so far...

MOTHER ÄÄÄÄER
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Old 06-19-2009, 02:41 PM   #617
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Re: 08 so far...

Hey you're up 14k!
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Old 07-11-2009, 09:47 AM   #618
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Re: 08 so far...

I'm moving to cake. **** FTP.

/
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Old 07-25-2009, 12:36 PM   #619
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Re: 08 so far...

Is there a quick/easy way to figure out how many standard deviations to the left one via PT3? I saw some people talking about using a binomial distribution, but doesnt that assume the same edge for every all in hand(which obv isnt the case)?

I run PT3 and I'm 27.5BI under AIEV after ~95k hands and Im kinda curious how many deviations to the left I am.
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Old 08-01-2009, 06:14 PM   #620
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Re: 08 so far...

bump.

I still havent' seen anybody on 2p2 run worse than this guy. Durrr or CTS or FoxwoodsFiend should give this guy some love money or a stake or something.


Holy **** what a bad streak! Hope life ok slugger!
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Old 08-01-2009, 07:13 PM   #621
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Re: 08 so far...

oh hai.

Just dropping by to let you know I'm running decent


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Old 08-01-2009, 07:16 PM   #622
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Re: 08 so far...

how do you have so many posts and only play 80k hands over the course of 8 months.
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Old 08-01-2009, 07:34 PM   #623
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Re: 08 so far...

At least OP lives near a zoo with rhino's

rhino's are cool
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Old 08-02-2009, 09:41 PM   #624
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Re: 08 so far...

poker = luck, unless your bad
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Old 08-03-2009, 10:17 AM   #625
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Re: 08 so far...

cashed out my roll today. gg poker.


/thread
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