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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

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Old 10-28-2008, 08:45 AM   #526
dbthdo
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Re: 08 so far...

LoL internetz pokahs

Online -$1000
Live Donkaments +€8000
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Old 10-28-2008, 04:15 PM   #527
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by burden2 View Post
No way is it real.

It's not just the end result which is nearly impossible. Its that there are no significant upswings whatsoever. I dont know how to calculate the likelihood of having no upswings of a given amount at all over 80K hands, but I would bet that it is pretty much zero under the assumption that OP is playing a long term winning game. Variance is a killer, but this graph does not have variance- it's a very consistent sharp downward trend.

So that is the assumption that should be challenged to explain the graph, the assumption that OP is playing a winning game.

In fact it is probably more likely that there is a doom switch than that a winning player could have that kind of straight downward graph with minimum variance. OP must have said something bad about Lederer so he should comb his threads, find the insult, and respectfully apologize lol

serously though, this graph is not legit under the assumption that OP is a long term winning player. Not enough variance.
If you want, I can pm you all of the HH"s. It is all completely real. How I wish it wasn't.
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Old 10-29-2008, 07:04 AM   #528
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Re: 08 so far...

hahaha

that's for not answering my HEM filter question..
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Old 10-29-2008, 10:02 AM   #529
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Re: 08 so far...

wow this is crazy
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Old 10-29-2008, 01:24 PM   #530
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by RedBarracuda View Post
how do you set up the HEM filters to show you all that ?
Ok, here is what I did with the filters on HM.

1. Under Reports click filters and then the 'more filters' tab.

2. At the very bottom of the list under 'other filters', select 'Allin Win% is Bigger Than...' and 'Allin Win% is Less Than'. Make it bigger than 50% and less than 50% for the two.

3. I also set the Final Pot size in BB's to "bigger than" 40bbs.

It's pretty easy and you can mess around with it.
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Old 10-29-2008, 02:11 PM   #531
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Re: 08 so far...

you're never going to turn it around, slugger, if your attitude is **** poker, as it says below your avatar.
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Old 10-29-2008, 02:18 PM   #532
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Re: 08 so far...

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Originally Posted by fxstone11 View Post
you're never going to turn it around, slugger, if your attitude is **** poker, as it says below your avatar.
wah wah wah wah.

Poker is the devil.

I will turn it around someday. Just not in the foreseeable future.

I hate poker right now. DUCY??
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Old 10-29-2008, 02:35 PM   #533
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Re: 08 so far...

Fix your location please, it's messing with the tables.
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Old 10-29-2008, 03:57 PM   #534
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Re: 08 so far...

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Originally Posted by DMoogle View Post
Fix your location please, it's messing with the tables.
lolol vigilante
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Old 10-31-2008, 07:38 AM   #535
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Re: 08 so far...

Poker is a complex game, unsolvable despite the daily hubris here on twoplustwo. Maybe you are an intuitive supra genius who, on a deep level, wants to sabatage himself. Maybe you have developed some super effective, super subtle anti-strategy?

Are you building big pots relative to your stack and folding?

You have some kind of leak. That is a fact because the opposite, that you played 80K hands without any significant upswing, is too unlikely (probability zero). Even bad players go on upswings. Even really bad players go on upswings.

Your graph really suggests that you are methodically and consistently not playing well, not that you are several magnitudes unluckier than the the unluckiest poker player who ever posted a blind.

You might have taken a liking to your view of yourself as unlucky but good. Don't do that. Face the facts. There are leaks in your game. If you've worked on your game to the nth degree already, then try another format like heads up or full ring or another game for awhile because man I have to tell you when you get wacked out improbable as hell results, challenge the underlying assumptions that produce the wacked outedness rather than accept the wacked outedness as the outcome of an ordinary process....if that makes any sense. I mean if I was a farmer and saw that there was a solid golden egg in some chickens nest, I would challenge the assumption that the egg was lain by the chicken. I would not, as you are doing, assume the chicken laid the golden egg and thank my lucky stars.
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Old 10-31-2008, 08:31 AM   #536
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Re: 08 so far...

I'll let someone else flame this moran.
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Old 10-31-2008, 11:44 AM   #537
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by burden2 View Post
Poker is a complex game, unsolvable despite the daily hubris here on twoplustwo. Maybe you are an intuitive supra genius who, on a deep level, wants to sabatage himself. Maybe you have developed some super effective, super subtle anti-strategy?

Are you building big pots relative to your stack and folding?

You have some kind of leak. That is a fact because the opposite, that you played 80K hands without any significant upswing, is too unlikely (probability zero). Even bad players go on upswings. Even really bad players go on upswings.

Your graph really suggests that you are methodically and consistently not playing well, not that you are several magnitudes unluckier than the the unluckiest poker player who ever posted a blind.

You might have taken a liking to your view of yourself as unlucky but good. Don't do that. Face the facts. There are leaks in your game. If you've worked on your game to the nth degree already, then try another format like heads up or full ring or another game for awhile because man I have to tell you when you get wacked out improbable as hell results, challenge the underlying assumptions that produce the wacked outedness rather than accept the wacked outedness as the outcome of an ordinary process....if that makes any sense. I mean if I was a farmer and saw that there was a solid golden egg in some chickens nest, I would challenge the assumption that the egg was lain by the chicken. I would not, as you are doing, assume the chicken laid the golden egg and thank my lucky stars.
wat?
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Old 11-01-2008, 05:50 AM   #538
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Re: 08 so far...

trying to make an analogy to make my point but maybe it got a little choppy.

Variance, despite what you maybe absobed in this forum, does not mean losses. Losses are not always due to variance. In fact, my main point is, your graph is not all over the place. There is not a high amount of vaiance in your results. Your results are incredibly consistent. That LACK OF VARIANCE means you are not playing well.
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Old 11-01-2008, 07:00 AM   #539
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by burden2 View Post
trying to make an analogy to make my point but maybe it got a little choppy.

Variance, despite what you maybe absobed in this forum, does not mean losses. Losses are not always due to variance. In fact, my main point is, your graph is not all over the place. There is not a high amount of vaiance in your results. Your results are incredibly consistent. That LACK OF VARIANCE means you are not playing well.
Did you even read the thread?
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Old 11-03-2008, 02:31 PM   #540
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by sluggger5x View Post
I was bored and was playing around with the filter tab on Holdem Manager. These are all pots where I had 70% equity with all the money going in. Pretty entertaining actually...


I have a total of 9 datamined hands on you in my DB. One of them is this one.

[ ] Downswong

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

atcblues (UTG): $52.45
lhprodigy (CO): $100.00
sluggger5x (BTN): $108.60
luckychief (SB): $92.00
Castigar (BB): $151.25

Pre Flop: ($1.50)
2 folds, sluggger5x raises to $3, 1 fold, Castigar raises to $13, sluggger5x calls $10

Flop: ($26.50) 4 5 6 (2 players)
Castigar bets $16, sluggger5x raises to $60, Castigar raises to $138.25 all in, sluggger5x calls $35.60 all in

Turn: ($217.70) 7 (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($217.70) K (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $217.70
sluggger5x shows 4 2 (a pair of Fours)
Castigar shows J J (a pair of Jacks)
Castigar wins $214.70
(Rake: $3.00)
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Old 11-03-2008, 05:03 PM   #541
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Re: 08 so far...

I didn't get past the second line of burden2's post and regretted reading that far frankly.
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Old 11-03-2008, 05:06 PM   #542
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by fxstone11 View Post
you're never going to turn it around, slugger, if your attitude is **** poker, as it says below your avatar.
well now its:

Location: asdf;lkjsdf;lkjds;lvkjd;lkja;ldkfj;

so his shrink must be earning the mega$$$.

Anyways,

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Old 11-05-2008, 07:36 AM   #543
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Re: 08 so far...

yeah I don't know nothin dont listen to me. Just keep on going slugger. See if you can play another 80,000 hands without a single upswing. We will all be very impressed. Hopefully you can get there before spontaneously combusting
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Old 11-05-2008, 10:19 AM   #544
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Re: 08 so far...

wait a minute, I thought you got a coaching and started crushing your limits?


Cliff notes after his coaching pls.
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Old 11-09-2008, 02:09 AM   #545
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Re: 08 so far...

Rigged?

I ran 3 buyins OVER expectation tonight. Is it time for my woes to end??!?!

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Old 11-09-2008, 02:12 AM   #546
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Re: 08 so far...

you seemed to have had everything in line at @ hand 800
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Old 11-09-2008, 02:17 AM   #547
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by sluggger5x View Post
Rigged?

I ran 3 buyins OVER expectation tonight. Is it time for my woes to end??!?!

And after that you're surprised you're running bad... Srsly guy I don't understand ppl like you.
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Old 11-09-2008, 02:32 AM   #548
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by OMGLillianLee View Post
And after that you're surprised you're running bad... Srsly guy I don't understand ppl like you.
[ ] understands that I ran well tonight
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Old 11-10-2008, 06:39 AM   #549
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by sluggger5x View Post
It couldn't be any worse. All NL100. Never thought it could be possible. I'll post again when I hit -100 buyin below equity. If you don't think it's possible, I promise I can prove you wrong.

Thanks poker.
GG life.
------------------------------
Maybe you are in a never ending lifetime downswing ...
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Old 11-10-2008, 09:10 AM   #550
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by burden2 View Post
trying to make an analogy to make my point but maybe it got a little choppy.

Variance, despite what you maybe absobed in this forum, does not mean losses. Losses are not always due to variance. In fact, my main point is, your graph is not all over the place. There is not a high amount of vaiance in your results. Your results are incredibly consistent. That LACK OF VARIANCE means you are not playing well.
hahaha
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