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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins.

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Old 10-25-2008, 06:44 PM   #501
ShipMoar
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by carnivalhobo View Post
i stopped watching when u repotted AK pre with 100bbs, fish
wat
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Old 10-25-2008, 08:16 PM   #502
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Re: 08 so far...

Those glitches make a huge difference actually.
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Old 10-25-2008, 10:55 PM   #503
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ms.Shortcake View Post
I thought that poker was a skill game?
Why would you think that??
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Old 10-25-2008, 10:58 PM   #504
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Re: 08 so far...

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Originally Posted by robertlanglois View Post
Why would you think that??
Thats what all the cry babies on 2+2 say when people tell them that they have a gambling problem.
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Old 10-26-2008, 12:10 AM   #505
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Re: 08 so far...

How have you not switched to stars?
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Old 10-26-2008, 01:04 PM   #506
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by [Phill] View Post
Ocam's Razor suggests that something is wrong with the program, the database or the analysis between the two rather than someone running that bad.
Actually, Ocam's razor would suggest that he his running that bad. The program or the database are the less simple solutions to the problem.
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Old 10-26-2008, 01:21 PM   #507
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Re: 08 so far...

I'm going to try to see if I can get my database on pokerev and see if I can get all the hands on one ev graph.
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Old 10-26-2008, 01:23 PM   #508
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Re: 08 so far...

if u want i can import ur hands into pt2+pEV
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Old 10-26-2008, 01:25 PM   #509
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by skillgambler View Post
if u want i can import ur hands into pt2+pEV
pm sent.
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Old 10-26-2008, 01:29 PM   #510
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Re: 08 so far...

Hey Slugger, I was sweating a friend of mine while watching MNF at his house. When it got reraised to him he was going to fold and I told him I'd take all the action on a call. Then when it was all-in to him I told him I'd take the action again. I thought I remembered you being 2p2, I forgot that you're the "runs awful guy." I was pretty drunk and definitely enjoyed this one. Meh, now that I found the HH I realie you were the QQ guy, not the AA guy. Either way fun hand.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

sluggger5x (SB): $103.50
teddykgb212 (BB): $100.00
TsirhCitna (UTG): $100.00
Pete51 (MP): $52.25
Hero (CO): $145.85
girl guide 11 (BTN): $112.70

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 5 6
TsirhCitna raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $12, girl guide 11 calls $12, sluggger5x requests TIME, sluggger5x raises to $50, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $38, girl guide 11 raises to $112.70 all in, sluggger5x calls $53.50 all in, Hero calls $62.70

Flop: ($333.90) 2 6 3

Turn: ($333.90) 3

River: ($333.90) 4

Final Pot: $333.90
sluggger5x shows Q Q (two pair, Queens and Threes)
Hero shows 5 6 (a straight, Six high)
girl guide 11 shows A A (two pair, Aces and Threes)
Hero wins $18.40
Hero wins $312.50
(Rake: $3.00)
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Old 10-26-2008, 01:41 PM   #511
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by FoxwoodsFiend View Post
Hey Slugger, I was sweating a friend of mine while watching MNF at his house. When it got reraised to him he was going to fold and I told him I'd take all the action on a call. Then when it was all-in to him I told him I'd take the action again. I thought I remembered you being 2p2, I forgot that you're the "runs awful guy." I was pretty drunk and definitely enjoyed this one. Meh, now that I found the HH I realie you were the QQ guy, not the AA guy. Either way fun hand.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

sluggger5x (SB): $103.50
teddykgb212 (BB): $100.00
TsirhCitna (UTG): $100.00
Pete51 (MP): $52.25
Hero (CO): $145.85
girl guide 11 (BTN): $112.70

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 5 6
TsirhCitna raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $12, girl guide 11 calls $12, sluggger5x requests TIME, sluggger5x raises to $50, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $38, girl guide 11 raises to $112.70 all in, sluggger5x calls $53.50 all in, Hero calls $62.70

Flop: ($333.90) 2 6 3

Turn: ($333.90) 3

River: ($333.90) 4

Final Pot: $333.90
sluggger5x shows Q Q (two pair, Queens and Threes)
Hero shows 5 6 (a straight, Six high)
girl guide 11 shows A A (two pair, Aces and Threes)
Hero wins $18.40
Hero wins $312.50
(Rake: $3.00)
lmao
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Old 10-26-2008, 01:42 PM   #512
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by FoxwoodsFiend View Post
Hey Slugger, I was sweating a friend of mine while watching MNF at his house. When it got reraised to him he was going to fold and I told him I'd take all the action on a call. Then when it was all-in to him I told him I'd take the action again. I thought I remembered you being 2p2, I forgot that you're the "runs awful guy." I was pretty drunk and definitely enjoyed this one. Meh, now that I found the HH I realie you were the QQ guy, not the AA guy. Either way fun hand.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

sluggger5x (SB): $103.50
teddykgb212 (BB): $100.00
TsirhCitna (UTG): $100.00
Pete51 (MP): $52.25
Hero (CO): $145.85
girl guide 11 (BTN): $112.70

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 5 6
TsirhCitna raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $12, girl guide 11 calls $12, sluggger5x requests TIME, sluggger5x raises to $50, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $38, girl guide 11 raises to $112.70 all in, sluggger5x calls $53.50 all in, Hero calls $62.70

Flop: ($333.90) 2 6 3

Turn: ($333.90) 3

River: ($333.90) 4

Final Pot: $333.90
sluggger5x shows Q Q (two pair, Queens and Threes)
Hero shows 5 6 (a straight, Six high)
girl guide 11 shows A A (two pair, Aces and Threes)
Hero wins $18.40
Hero wins $312.50
(Rake: $3.00)
haha awesome, if he was the AA guy it would even more awesome but still funny.
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Old 10-26-2008, 01:43 PM   #513
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by FoxwoodsFiend View Post
Hey Slugger, I was sweating a friend of mine while watching MNF at his house. When it got reraised to him he was going to fold and I told him I'd take all the action on a call. Then when it was all-in to him I told him I'd take the action again. I thought I remembered you being 2p2, I forgot that you're the "runs awful guy." I was pretty drunk and definitely enjoyed this one. Meh, now that I found the HH I realie you were the QQ guy, not the AA guy. Either way fun hand.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

sluggger5x (SB): $103.50
teddykgb212 (BB): $100.00
TsirhCitna (UTG): $100.00
Pete51 (MP): $52.25
Hero (CO): $145.85
girl guide 11 (BTN): $112.70

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 5 6
TsirhCitna raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $12, girl guide 11 calls $12, sluggger5x requests TIME, sluggger5x raises to $50, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $38, girl guide 11 raises to $112.70 all in, sluggger5x calls $53.50 all in, Hero calls $62.70

Flop: ($333.90) 2 6 3

Turn: ($333.90) 3

River: ($333.90) 4

Final Pot: $333.90
sluggger5x shows Q Q (two pair, Queens and Threes)
Hero shows 5 6 (a straight, Six high)
girl guide 11 shows A A (two pair, Aces and Threes)
Hero wins $18.40
Hero wins $312.50
(Rake: $3.00)
lol, it's all about knowing your opponent i guess
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Old 10-26-2008, 01:45 PM   #514
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by FoxwoodsFiend View Post
Hey Slugger, I was sweating a friend of mine while watching MNF at his house. When it got reraised to him he was going to fold and I told him I'd take all the action on a call. Then when it was all-in to him I told him I'd take the action again. I thought I remembered you being 2p2, I forgot that you're the "runs awful guy." I was pretty drunk and definitely enjoyed this one. Meh, now that I found the HH I realie you were the QQ guy, not the AA guy. Either way fun hand.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

sluggger5x (SB): $103.50
teddykgb212 (BB): $100.00
TsirhCitna (UTG): $100.00
Pete51 (MP): $52.25
Hero (CO): $145.85
girl guide 11 (BTN): $112.70

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 5 6
TsirhCitna raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $12, girl guide 11 calls $12, sluggger5x requests TIME, sluggger5x raises to $50, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $38, girl guide 11 raises to $112.70 all in, sluggger5x calls $53.50 all in, Hero calls $62.70

Flop: ($333.90) 2 6 3

Turn: ($333.90) 3

River: ($333.90) 4

Final Pot: $333.90
sluggger5x shows Q Q (two pair, Queens and Threes)
Hero shows 5 6 (a straight, Six high)
girl guide 11 shows A A (two pair, Aces and Threes)
Hero wins $18.40
Hero wins $312.50
(Rake: $3.00)
I was wondering why the 20/17 reg did this. Makes sense now. People are starting to recognize my sn and taking advantage of me.
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Old 10-26-2008, 02:08 PM   #515
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Re: 08 so far...

that graph hurts my eyes
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Old 10-26-2008, 04:09 PM   #516
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Re: 08 so far...

I love you FWF, that hand made my day.
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Old 10-26-2008, 04:20 PM   #517
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Re: 08 so far...

lol so thats how u got to hsnl fwf
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Old 10-27-2008, 01:07 PM   #518
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Re: 08 so far...

lol fwf
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Old 10-27-2008, 09:09 PM   #519
sluggger5x
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Re: 08 so far...

Looks like pokerev is saying the same thing. It's so sick that I'm looking back more than 12 months and I'm still so far below equity. I don't know if anyone will ever come close to this....

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Old 10-27-2008, 10:54 PM   #520
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Re: 08 so far...

have u tried not losing so much without showdown?
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Old 10-27-2008, 10:57 PM   #521
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Re: 08 so far...

sick
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Old 10-28-2008, 12:54 AM   #522
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Re: 08 so far...

Quote:
Originally Posted by sluggger5x View Post

This is the grossest thing I have ever seen in my life. If karma was nice you should have just been mugged for 12k with a black eye in a dark alley. Instead you have to suffer longer than any poker player should and have run thousands below equity. So sorry bro. Some balla should just ship you what you deserve.
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Old 10-28-2008, 02:35 AM   #523
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Re: 08 so far...

why haven't we seen your stats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

yeah your losing but it has to be cause your playing horribly, because i have never had more then a -10bi swing ever. If i feel im not on my game i just close the window.

post your stats so we can find your leaks, your obviously playing a high variance style if your having losing swings this large.
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Old 10-28-2008, 03:51 AM   #524
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Re: 08 so far...

i think his leak is he doesn't know how to win coinflips... but i don't think you'd be able to help him there.
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Old 10-28-2008, 05:18 AM   #525
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Re: 08 so far...

No way is it real.

It's not just the end result which is nearly impossible. Its that there are no significant upswings whatsoever. I dont know how to calculate the likelihood of having no upswings of a given amount at all over 80K hands, but I would bet that it is pretty much zero under the assumption that OP is playing a long term winning game. Variance is a killer, but this graph does not have variance- it's a very consistent sharp downward trend.

So that is the assumption that should be challenged to explain the graph, the assumption that OP is playing a winning game.

In fact it is probably more likely that there is a doom switch than that a winning player could have that kind of straight downward graph with minimum variance. OP must have said something bad about Lederer so he should comb his threads, find the insult, and respectfully apologize lol

serously though, this graph is not legit under the assumption that OP is a long term winning player. Not enough variance.
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