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Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance Here's where you put your whines and wins. |
07-31-2008, 10:24 PM
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#351
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 13,472
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by leprous_hand
i keep waiting for op to upswing... i would would be straight up busto if i was in your shoes...
this can't go on.....can it?
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
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08-01-2008, 06:56 AM
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#352
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journeyman
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 364
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Re: 08 so far...
change ur account!!
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08-01-2008, 11:15 PM
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#353
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: depends
Posts: 3,823
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Re: 08 so far...
Some of the hands OP posted, he seriously misplayed them.
Of course you're going to get sucked out again and again if you slowplay everytime you flop a set.
There is such a thing called "betting" that allows you to cut down the odds of opponents drawing out on you. In so many hands you posted, you play it passive. If you're going to be scared then move down. The way you play, sure you run bad, but you would make more money if you just went all in on the flop everytime you hit even.. instead of this check/call, check/check, bet river then get reraised all in for suckout crap.
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08-01-2008, 11:33 PM
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#354
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John Connor of poker
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fight for Poker Rights Action Thred
Posts: 5,592
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by 663366
Some of the hands OP posted, he seriously misplayed them.
Of course you're going to get sucked out again and again if you slowplay everytime you flop a set.
There is such a thing called "betting" that allows you to cut down the odds of opponents drawing out on you. In so many hands you posted, you play it passive. If you're going to be scared then move down. The way you play, sure you run bad, but you would make more money if you just went all in on the flop everytime you hit even.. instead of this check/call, check/check, bet river then get reraised all in for suckout crap.
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So your giving your 2 cents on a 300k hand run based on....how many hands you've seen me play?
next plz.
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08-02-2008, 01:27 AM
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#355
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: May 2007
Location: the moon
Posts: 6,510
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Re: 08 so far...
OP is not a statistical anomaly, he just plays bad obv
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08-02-2008, 01:48 AM
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#356
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: 8 Mile + 2.5
Posts: 37,531
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxRaises
OP is not a statistical anomaly, he just plays at Full Tilt obv
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fyp
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08-02-2008, 07:43 AM
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#357
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banned
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: I was a plant.
Posts: 10,991
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by sluggger5x
54 heads 46 tails. Does this mean i will run good or bad at teh pokerz?
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Don't ruin your upswing on play money coinflips! Thats another +8 buy ins of AI EV lost IMO
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08-02-2008, 01:05 PM
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#358
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: feminine yuppie narc
Posts: 12,599
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Re: 08 so far...
I'm **** at maths but I think people are like failing to realize he's picking out his sickest unlucky stretch from a larger distribution of results so obviously he's going to appear more unlucky than he is...i.e. 4/100 000 or whatever. Just to put it in maybe some perspective, and ofc i could be wrong.
Anyways, this is sick hope it turns around for you. Whats your stars name? I'll send you a small amount of my rather meagre net worth out of sympathy.
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08-02-2008, 03:33 PM
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#359
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John Connor of poker
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fight for Poker Rights Action Thred
Posts: 5,592
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by rakemeplz
I'm **** at maths but I think people are like failing to realize he's picking out his sickest unlucky stretch from a larger distribution of results so obviously he's going to appear more unlucky than he is...i.e. 4/100 000 or whatever. Just to put it in maybe some perspective, and ofc i could be wrong.
Anyways, this is sick hope it turns around for you. Whats your stars name? I'll send you a small amount of my rather meagre net worth out of sympathy.
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[ ] picking out sickest unlucky stretch
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08-02-2008, 03:35 PM
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#360
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enthusiast
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Blogging
Posts: 58
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by sluggger5x
[ ] picking out sickest unlucky stretch

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That's so freakin' disgusting.
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08-02-2008, 03:50 PM
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#361
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unclean
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: General Snus
Posts: 16,249
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by sluggger5x
[ ] picking out sickest unlucky stretch

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there is no god
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08-05-2008, 03:13 AM
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#362
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veteran
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: wiziwig eu
Posts: 2,109
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Re: 08 so far...
I've played probably 750,000 hands or more. I got all-in with AA against two people with Kings exactly once during that time, and lost to a rivered straight. It was at a crucial building time in my BR too. That's when I knew I was one of the cursed ones
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08-05-2008, 03:35 AM
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#363
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veteran
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 3,142
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Re: 08 so far...
QUIT
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08-07-2008, 12:24 AM
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#364
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: J. Edgar Hoover Elementary
Posts: 10,449
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Re: 08 so far...
sluggger, you are now playing at one of my plo tables. i'm pretty sure this is not the game for someone as lucky as yourself
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08-07-2008, 12:31 AM
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#365
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: May your pain be champagne
Posts: 6,514
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by lennie257
if i was rich, i would ship OP like 10k, because this is some of the most brutal **** i've ever seen.
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hahahahahahhaha. you're an idiot.
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08-07-2008, 02:48 PM
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#366
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John Connor of poker
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fight for Poker Rights Action Thred
Posts: 5,592
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lurker.
hahahahahahhaha. you're an idiot.
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STFU!!!
I can dream can't I?
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08-07-2008, 02:51 PM
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#367
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John Connor of poker
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fight for Poker Rights Action Thred
Posts: 5,592
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Re: 08 so far...
Brag: I have watched over 30 poker videos the past two weeks
Beat: I've only played like 5k hands
Variance: I'm still bad at running good and playing good
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08-07-2008, 03:37 PM
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#368
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adept
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Outside it's America
Posts: 943
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Re: 08 so far...
*gut punch*
By the way, and I don't deny this may be a stupid question, but was that a legit email from FT about the doomswitch? Not that I think there is such a thing (although this thread is certainly compelling proof) but I was wondering if they really made that joke or if I just missed something in this hellish thread.
Sorry, OP. This is incredible.
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08-12-2008, 01:45 AM
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#369
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John Connor of poker
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fight for Poker Rights Action Thred
Posts: 5,592
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Re: 08 so far...
New avatar!!! Now I run good forever!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
not
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08-12-2008, 02:24 AM
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#370
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old hand
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,963
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by sluggger5x
Beat: I'm still bad at playing good
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+1
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08-12-2008, 05:45 AM
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#371
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adept
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Never been Chino'd
Posts: 746
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Re: 08 so far...
Brag: My wife and I had our first baby last week
Beat: Played my worst session of the year today due to fatigue -2000
Brag: Still best week of my life due to my new daughter
Last edited by BoyItalia; 08-12-2008 at 05:46 AM.
Reason: as she cries right now
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08-12-2008, 05:49 AM
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#372
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 13,472
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by BoyItalia
Brag: My wife and I had our first baby last week
Beat: Played my worst session of the year today due to fatigue -2000
Beat: worst week of my life due to my wanting a son
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fyp
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08-12-2008, 06:02 PM
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#373
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stranger
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 2
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Re: 08 so far...
Quote:
Originally Posted by sluggger5x
as promised...

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I dont understand this. Why do u only see 500-600 flops when u have AA and KK, but see many more when u have 22 and 33.
Why would u want to fold AA preflop?
Is there something i dont understand with this picture?
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08-12-2008, 06:04 PM
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#374
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banned
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: ninny rubbin'
Posts: 8,630
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Re: 08 so far...
more agro pf with premium hands = less flops seen
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08-12-2008, 06:09 PM
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#375
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journeyman
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: micro blog inside
Posts: 380
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Re: 08 so far...
raises prf with AA / KK and it all folds around
limps / calls with 22 / 33 = more flops
...not that hard
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