Quote:
Originally Posted by Montezuma21
Would you mind explaining this in a language that a history grad would understand?
I kind of get what you're saying, that if it were cumulative it wouldn't be a bell curve, it would just go straight up at an angle correct?. but what would it mean exactly if he were at the 40% point in the graph, and how does 40% relate to this?
This is the standard normal distributive curve:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution
The red graphs are the ones important to us.
Mostly we would not ask how what the probability is that Hero runs at exactly mean, but more often we ask what is the probability that Hero runs in whatever range. Within 1 standard deviation of the mean would be 68.2%, for instance, while less than one standard dev below would be 15.9%, etc.
In the case of this program, we have the distribution of winnings, and we know how much Hero has won, so we simply compute the probability that Hero has won <= that amount, which is where the 0.0039% number comes from. If slugger had won exactly the mean, it would be 50%.