1. If I remember correctly, flopzilla statistics showed me that players have a 1% chance of flopping a straight and a 1% chance of flopping a two pair. Someone might also have a set. Is this about right? If I have 4 opponents, the chances of them flopping something better than my bottom two-pair is around 4-6% approximately?

2. Board comes 3c-6d-7h rainbow. I have 3 and 6 as the big blind and I bet. 4 players called.

3. Turn comes 10h; someone might have a flush draw and someone might hit a straight with 8/9. Would you bet on the turn?

4. On the turn, I bet and the person after me raised. The person on the button called. Would you still call? I am very sure the raiser has 8/9. At this point, I need 3 or 6 for full-house. I have 4 outs, so only 8% chance to win? If I hit, I am sure I can check raise on the river. Maybe the button person had flush draw; I really do not think he has a set.

Thank you in advance.

There's no reason to think you're beat just yet.

The raiser could definitely have just a T (especially T8 or T9 that have a straight draw as well).

Call and then c/c most rivers.

Even assuming those numbers are right as measured before the cards are dealt, the board and action change our estimation of how frequently someone has a strong hand.

Example 1: Someone is much more likely to have flopped a strong hand on an AKQ flop than on a 432 flop because of the distribution of hands people play vs. muck.

Example 2: The probability that someone flopped a straight goes way up when a straight is possible on the flop. The pre-flop probabilities you are relying on are taking into account all of the times that there is no straight possible on the board.

Example 3: The likelihood that someone flopped a strong hand is generally much higher when they are betting and raising than when they are checking, calling, or folding.

When you are trying to read your opponents' hands, you should be thinking about what range of hands is consistent with their action so far, not the probability (in a vacuum) that someone could have a hand of a certain strength.

Almost all of my no limit friends think in terms of percentages and maybe that's the trend in all forms of poker now. But I still tend to think in terms of odds when playing limit. Your immediate odds are at least 10:1 after you bet the turn, get raised, and the button cold calls (you don't say how many players there were pre flop or whether or not it was raised). In addition, it appears you're closing the action with no threat of further raising to worry about.

Out of 46 cards left, 4 improve your hand and 42 do not. If you can expect to collect 2 or more bets on the river your implied odds are at least 12:1 to beat straights and top two. It's also possible you'll improve and still lose to 76s,74s,T6s,T4s and less likely TT,77,66, so you might want to discount your odds a bit, but I think this is more than offset by the times bottom two is still the best hand. So this seems a clear call down if not a 3 bet v. some players imo

This changes my perspective on the game a lot. I think a lot of times, I hate getting bluffed out so I often look at Probabilityin a vacuum and call hands in denial.

The bigger the pot, the higher the bluff rate.

I'd raise you in this situation if I were villain holding a T unless I thought you were a nit.

Unless I knew villain was loose, I'd call down; otherwise, raise.

o rly?

In theory you should bluff less in bigger pots not more.

In no limit you can bluff more with larger BET sizes as long as you have enough value bets to balance with your bluffs.

I think this one is pretty easy. You are getting 10:1 odds now and will likely face another bet on the river (assuming you check/call). So, in most cases, it's going to cost you a total of 2 bets to win 11-12 through the end of the hand.

You are almost certainly good here 20% of the time, with opponent holding a hand like AT, 9T or A6h. If the river is a 3rd H and action goes: You check, bettor bets, button (who previously called) now raises, you can easily fold, putting button on flush.

You also have a small chance of drawing out.

So, my plan would be: call here, plan on check-calling the river but reevaluate if the river card is threatening and an action-fest breaks out.

It's also true that you may already be behind, or even drawing dead, but that's poker.

In the mind of a fish, yes. They can at least run simple numbers, so "why not take a chance on $8 to take down $100?".

Just like how calling begets calling.

love to see the stats on someone bluffing into a large pot multiway .
my guess is its a losing play and its not even close

i would bet that my bluffs into large pots multiway are massively winning plays and its not even close

Tu Salude^^

This just reminded me of limit back in the early 00s.

Once the LAGs and sharks had basically put the table on tilt, every now and then, I'd see the old pros who mostly slept during a big multiway all the sudden wake up and get into a raise war on the river.

At the time, I thought they had merely let the table get to them, taking beats on their own game. Once I saw that this only really occurred with a mouse or two, and they of course folded, it all became clear.