Quote:
Originally Posted by grimorum
1. If I remember correctly, flopzilla statistics showed me that players have a 1% chance of flopping a straight and a 1% chance of flopping a two pair. Someone might also have a set. Is this about right? If I have 4 opponents, the chances of them flopping something better than my bottom two-pair is around 4-6% approximately?
Even assuming those numbers are right as measured before the cards are dealt, the board and action change our estimation of how frequently someone has a strong hand.
Example 1: Someone is much more likely to have flopped a strong hand on an AKQ flop than on a 432 flop because of the distribution of hands people play vs. muck.
Example 2: The probability that someone flopped a straight goes way up when a straight is possible on the flop. The pre-flop probabilities you are relying on are taking into account all of the times that there is no straight possible on the board.
Example 3: The likelihood that someone flopped a strong hand is generally much higher when they are betting and raising than when they are checking, calling, or folding.
When you are trying to read your opponents' hands, you should be thinking about what range of hands is consistent with their action so far, not the probability (in a vacuum) that someone could have a hand of a certain strength.