Quote:
Originally Posted by leavesofliberty
C'mon, you can do this math. It'd be 5 to win the 6 + the 5 each from the other 2 players, ... and you can solve it.
Yeah I mean first off it seems incredibly faulty to assume BB would just auto 4 bet his whatever (since he didn't 4 bet his two pair). Second off, even if we do get whipsawed (which means we can for sure account for two of the 3 missing kings), we'd be getting 3.2:1 on our whipsaw w/ 10 outs and 44 unknown cards, or 3.4:1. Then if we get there, we collect 2 bets like every time, so our true price is 3.6:1, meaning we're making money even if this goes the full 5 bets.
OP, you went for a low variance route and now you're trying too much to rationalize it, Even our worst case scenario indicates you can pay the full 5 bets and make money. Since you have a 50% chance of not paying any more than 2 bets (SB has AA), we can feel comfortable knowing the money is going in good.
Give me like T8s with the same action and this decision gets closer, and maybe we can consider folding our draw.