Quote:
Originally Posted by dadjoey
Hand 2:
40/80 - 4 handed. I am in the big blind. UTG raises, button 3 bets, I cap 88s. Call call. Flop comes K 9 x two suits. I bet, call, call. Turn is an off suit queen. Do we barrel turn river in this spot?
Hi Dad:
I'm just going to address Hand 2. Before the flop you should just call and not cap with the pair of eights from the big blind. In
The Intelligent Poker Player by Philip Newall he gives a good explanation as to why you should just call out of the big blind (but you should probably four bet out of the small blind).
Given that you did make it four bets preflop, on the turn there's slightly less than 8 big bets in the pot, and there's a 5 percent chance you'll catch an eight on the river. If you check and an opponents bets (and there's no raise) you'll be getting 9- or 10-to-1 to call. So you need to have the best hand at the river slightly less than 10 percent of the time. If you think an 8 will be good if you catch it and your opponent won't bet again if he can't beat a pair of eights on the river which now only needs to happen about 5 percent of the time, then it seems to me that a check-call would be a better play than check-fold.
As for a lead bet on the turn, again I think both your opponents will fold often enough coupled with your chance of catching a river eight to give this play positive expectation. In fact, I think it's a little better than the check call above since there are a few hands that an opponent should fold which can draw out on your eights (assuming your eights are the best hand). However, if raised on the turn, it's probably best to give it up since your chances of winning with a set of eights has gone down.
Best wishes,
Mason