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Old 12-13-2017, 12:11 PM   #1
mongidig
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Trcky turn spot.

20/40 live 9 handed.

UTG...very laggy pre and post. Will always take the aggressive action given the choice. Will always bluff if he picks up a draw on the turn. Will raise marginal hands for protection on turn. He's probably not overly concerned with BBs tight range. He actually makes good aprropriate plays( but will over plays draws and marginal hands sometimes) but just plays way too loose pre. He's probably not folding anything pre in this spot because he already has money in there.

BB.... Solid TAG. Good hand reader. Probably betting his whole range on the turn. I'm thinking his 3 bet range is TT+ AQo+. BB is aware of how UTG plays

I have a pretty tight image and possibly seen as weak because I have bet/folded more than usual this session. I'm running extremely bad.

UTG posts half kill, I am first to act UTG+1 and raise TsTc, folded to BB who 3 bets, UTG calls and I call.

9d3d3c....BB bets, UTG calls and I call.

9d3d3c6s...BB bets, UTG raises....If I just call I think BB calls with AQ and AK. I think he 3 bets QQ's+. If I three bet I think it's possible BB caps KK's and AA's.

How do you play this? It seems three betting makes sense to protect my hand against BBs overcards and maybe get them to fold JJ's or QQ's. Although I'm not overly concerned with UTG range, he fould have a slowplayed or turned monster which he will cap.

Feel free to question my assumptions.

My reads are from a very small sample size(several hours).
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Old 12-13-2017, 01:50 PM   #2
UpHillBothWays
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Re: Trcky turn spot.

turn starts out w/ 6bb

it's 4.5:1 when it reaches you and if you 3b it'll be 6:1 back to UTG to call and if he has AK/AQ, he's folding 30/32 of those (he's never folding the diamonds).

it seems reasonable that he'd fold those hands here given the action and needing 11:1 to proceed getting only 6:1 not closing the action, but the question is, does he BET every AK/AQ on the turn? I'm not sure he does. i can see many reasons why he would but his turn betting frequency is probably <100% of his range here.

mainly i think the above b/c i think your range of his hands at TT+, AQo+ is wrong. you were first in raising a kill, so even though you're in early position, bb should realize you also have hands like KJs, QJs, ATo (maybe), A9s, 77+ (you can go a bit lower on pairs here, maybe to 66/55, since it's much more likely you'll get through the rest of the table with the bets being double their normal size). so bb should also be able to 3b comfortably AJs, 99, KQs. this opens him up a wee bit more than you have him there, and i think he's probably checking his KQsuiteds on the turn.

anyways, bottom line is that this should be a raise unless you can be more confident that he'd check some of his weaker holdings. but even then, the possibility of folding out JJ is enough to make a raise worth it. i don't think he'd ever fold QQ+. it's probably unlikely he folds JJ, but just in case.

and folding out 9% equity against you vs. UTG, who most likely has a flush draw or a 9 or maybe even a 66 type hand, means you increase your chance to win the pot and w/ 9bbs to you at your decision point, that's a pretty good price at 3:1 to do so.
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Old 12-14-2017, 01:13 AM   #3
Mason Malmuth
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Angry Re: Trcky turn spot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mongidig View Post
20/40 live 9 handed.

UTG...very laggy pre and post. Will always take the aggressive action given the choice. Will always bluff if he picks up a draw on the turn. Will raise marginal hands for protection on turn. He's probably not overly concerned with BBs tight range. He actually makes good aprropriate plays( but will over plays draws and marginal hands sometimes) but just plays way too loose pre. He's probably not folding anything pre in this spot because he already has money in there.

BB.... Solid TAG. Good hand reader. Probably betting his whole range on the turn. I'm thinking his 3 bet range is TT+ AQo+. BB is aware of how UTG plays

I have a pretty tight image and possibly seen as weak because I have bet/folded more than usual this session. I'm running extremely bad.

UTG posts half kill, I am first to act UTG+1 and raise TsTc, folded to BB who 3 bets, UTG calls and I call.

9d3d3c....BB bets, UTG calls and I call.

9d3d3c6s...BB bets, UTG raises....If I just call I think BB calls with AQ and AK. I think he 3 bets QQ's+. If I three bet I think it's possible BB caps KK's and AA's.

How do you play this? It seems three betting makes sense to protect my hand against BBs overcards and maybe get them to fold JJ's or QQ's. Although I'm not overly concerned with UTG range, he fould have a slowplayed or turned monster which he will cap.

Feel free to question my assumptions.

My reads are from a very small sample size(several hours).
Hi mongidig:

I think there’s a simple rule that applies here. In limit hold ‘em, once the pot is big, you have a hand of value, don’ worry about losing an extra bet if you’re going to play, and this is especially true if your bet or raise can increase the probability of winning the pot.

Clearly because UTG is very laggy and the big blind can have AK or AQ, your hand is too good to fold and a raise should increase the probability of you winning by getting 6 out hands (to your hand) to fold. Thus making it three-bets should be the best line.

Best wishes,
Mason
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Old 12-14-2017, 01:16 AM   #4
MacauBound
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Re: Trcky turn spot.

Agree that BB 3 bet is looser than OP is giving him (should even contain hands like T9ss, AJo, 88+ I'd think, if he knows UTG is calling atc) - and that the wider range will have him cbetting turn into 2 players guesstimate only 80-85%.

I think you can safely 3 bet turn w TT. If BB caps, then you have 2 outs and better hope you don't bink only to find out BB has 99 and UTG has 33.
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Old 12-14-2017, 03:39 AM   #5
DonkeyOnTilt
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Re: Trcky turn spot.

I'm never folding here and you're unlikely to get raised if you three bet unless they hold something resembling the nuts. I think 3bet is best though I admit that I often make the mistake of calling here. Folding out 6 outs and getting a 9 to call is a huge win.
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Old 12-14-2017, 04:35 AM   #6
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Re: Trcky turn spot.

3bet turn, then check behind river unimproved if BB calls the turn. if BB folds, bet river vs UTG.
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Old 12-14-2017, 12:11 PM   #7
mongidig
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Re: Trcky turn spot.

Thanks for the responses!

I agree I should put the BB on a slighly wider range. I'm thinking 88+ QJs+ AJs+AQo+

I usually have the same range UTG+1 as I do UTG, however, given the posted kill to my right and the not great player posting it I should loosen up a bit. How does this look? 66+ A9s+ ATo+ JTs+ QTs +KQo+........My normal opening range here is 77+ ATs+ AJo+ JTs+ QTs+ KQo+......Does this seem about right?

I ended up tanking and then calling on the turn. I should have anticipated this possibility on the turn. Had I been prepared and had I insta 3 bet the turn, what would you guy's do if you were the BB and had JJ's or QQ's....Kinda a gross spot isn't it? What is your play with KK's or AA's?
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Old 12-14-2017, 12:17 PM   #8
mongidig
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Re: Trcky turn spot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MacauBound View Post
Agree that BB 3 bet is looser than OP is giving him (should even contain hands like T9ss, AJo, 88+ I'd think, if he knows UTG is calling atc) - and that the wider range will have him cbetting turn into 2 players guesstimate only 80-85%.

I think you can safely 3 bet turn w TT. If BB caps, then you have 2 outs and better hope you don't bink only to find out BB has 99 and UTG has 33.
What is your reasonng for including a hand like 9Ts in BB 3 bet range?

If I bink a T on the river I will be loving life if BB as 99's and will probably cry like a baby od UTG has 33's cause I'm gonna lose everything probably.
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Old 12-14-2017, 12:18 PM   #9
mongidig
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Re: Trcky turn spot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by HUMBLE. View Post
3bet turn, then check behind river unimproved if BB calls the turn. if BB folds, bet river vs UTG.
Agree.
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Old 12-15-2017, 01:33 AM   #10
MacauBound
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Re: Trcky turn spot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mongidig View Post
What is your reasonng for including a hand like 9Ts in BB 3 bet range?
Partly board coverage, partly bc UTG is vpip 100% here apparently
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Old 12-15-2017, 08:19 AM   #11
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Re: Trcky turn spot.

Ruling out the possibility of a turn cold call is wrong. While its true you might be letting a 6 outer in at a great price, the fact that the first player continued on the turn means AK/AQ might be less likely. If it is overcards it might be more often with a flush draw that will call 2 cold. The idea to make them fold QQ or even JJ seems like wishful thinking. And the turn raise from the second player will sometimes be AA-JJ itself, although possibly a semi bluff or lower pair, like 9x or 88.

I think the chance you're actually ahead here makes 3-betting a bit spew even though, like Mason said, it will sometimes mean winning the pot. I would see it more as a cold-calling, defense/drawing situation. Sometimes you're ahead of A9s and 88 or AKs and 77. But this is a bit of a parlay and the chance to fold a 6 outer might not be worth an extra bet or 2 each time this plays out. Note that Getting 4-bet on the turn will price you in for that bet and occasionally one more on the river depending.
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Old 12-17-2017, 01:46 PM   #12
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Re: Trcky turn spot.

If bb’s range is what MacauBound suggests, raise the flop for value.
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Old 12-17-2017, 10:05 PM   #13
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Re: Trcky turn spot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rodeo View Post
If bb’s range is what MacauBound suggests, raise the flop for value.
+1

I raise the flop here. You got what you wanted; all under cards. So make with the raising.
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