6 handed game

I open the cutoff with J9s. Big blind defends.
Flop J 9 4 with a flush draw. k/c
Turn is a brick. k/c
River is a 4 and villain checks.

Check back? Bet? If raised is this a fold or call?

Reads: Villain will take a more aggressive line with J10+ and most draws.

I’d bet/call


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I'd bet and be confused if raised, not think too long and call.

I’d probably just leave the game if raised and return in the morning for a refund.

Bet / Call, Top 2 is just too strong to check back or bet / fold. If you got it, you got it. If you're scared, get a puppy.

Where do we draw the line in our range for hands to check back on this river? Maybe 88?

I️ think you can make a strong case for chking 9s whose kickers don’t play


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He's likely calling us very thin because all the millions of draws missed. His range should consist of a lot of Ax combos that are calling us down, as well as some other weak showdown hands like small pairs. Depending on how aggressive he is, he could have some stronger hands like weak J's, but even in this case he just has so many more weak showdown bound hands that we can go pretty thin for value. We're going to be bluffing a lot in this spot too so we better get our value when we actually have something.

That sounds nitty to me. He'd have to be so weaktight that we can auto-fold to a x/r anyway. A more aggressive player could have a couple weak 9s still, but we would have seen a raise from anything stronger by now for sure, so it's really just 4x combos we are worried about. And yeah he has a lot of them in the BB, but cmon, 2 of them are on the board. There's only 2 left!

I was about to say around 66, but OTR has me second guessing myself. If villain were JLot I would slam dunk bet AK and pre-tip, but if it were some nitty passive old guy I might check back the weak 9 . . .

I️ assume this is vs a typical mid stakes losing player. Vs stronger players you should clearly bet most pairs.


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Let's assume the turn was a 3 and lets say BB's range is:

A9(8)/K9(8)/Q9(8)/T9(8)/98(8)/97(8)/96s(2)/95s(2)/92s(2)/22(6)/55(6)/66(6)/77(6)/88(6)/A4(16)/K4s(2)/Q4s(2)/J4s(2)/T4s(2)/84s(2)/74s(2)/64s(2)/54s(2)/42s(2)

We can ignore draws since A) you said he would c/r most on the flop and B) the only draws that would consider calling on the river are KQ and Ax with a flush draw.

Given this range of hands that will either call or raise, we are ahead of 84 and behind 34. Given that we are risking 2 to win 1, we need to be ahead 66% of the time. Against this range, we are ahead 72% of the time.

However, things are actually a lot better for us. You didn't say how this guy plays pre flop, but a lot of opponents do not like to 3bet from the BB here. Thus he could have AK (16 combos), AQ (16 combos), AT (16 combos), or TT (6 combos)...all of which could very conceivably play like this and call a river bet. He could also pay off your river bet with KQ (if he didn't c/r flop and didn't 3bet pre) or Ax flush draw (if for some reason he decided to play it passively on the flop). You also mention that he could have a J worse than JT. If that's true we should add J8o as well as J2s/J5s/J6s/J7s.

All in all, it's a trivially easy bet, even if your reads are perfectly accurate.

Me too. Bet fold versus some specific villains.