Live 20, passive and slightly loose player limps EP, I raise KJo in like the HJ, HU. His range is wide and probably includes things like JTs, ATo, and small pairs.

984 with a fd

He calls

3r

He checks.

If I bet two good things can happen: he can fold a better hand (ace high or like 55), or call with a worse one (a draw of some sort). I don't think he's capable of c/r a draw so I would fold to a raise.

If I check obviously I save a bet against many of his pair hands, but the lack of c/r suggests he is fruitless.

I opt to bet, and he calls.

What rivers do I barrel? If he has ace high I'm pretty sure he will fold it. However, he should have folded most of them on the turn.

I am confused. How wide can his range be if those are his worst hands?

I always bet again here and check back UI on the river. He has gutshots and hands that beat us that fold the turn often enough. Not worth it to fire the last barrel imo (maybe on an ace river but only if I had some inclination that he was the type to "always put you on AK")

I guess I meant to convey that I don't have a good sense of his range, and it is wide compared to, say, mine. But that's not really helpful since mine would be null for EP limping. It's probably typical stuff. Weak aces, suited connectors, small pairs.

The main point is that equity wise it has me crushed after the turn card falls.

i would bet A, J, K rivers and check back the rest.

+1

+2

lol @ betting an ace river imo. do people really folded pairs on the river enough for you guys for that play to work as a bluff? only pair i would expect for him to fold with a high frequency is 22 (and thats not a lock or anything). you are bluffing with a bluff catcher in position closing the action. makes no sense to me.

My gut said that an A would be a bad card to bet and I wanted to look into it.

First, lets say the board is 9843 and we have KJ

So how's this for a starting range:

99-44,ATo-A8o,KJo-KTo,QJo,9As-2As,TKs-8Ks,JQs-9Qs,TJs-9Js,T9s,98s,87s

Let's take out the sets (99,88,44), two pairs (98s)and the flopped overcards (ATo, KJo, three of the KTs), suited aces that miss on the turn (A7cc/ss/dd, A6cc/ss/dd, A5ss/dd, A3ss, A2ss/dd), bare gutshots/overs (QJcc/dd/ss, QTcc/dd/ss), and less than second pair (77-55, A4s) leaving 54 combos,

Pears+ (39): A9,A8,K9s,K8s,Q9s,J9s,T9s,87s

and

Draws (14): A7,A6,
A5,A5,A3:he art:,
A3,A2,A2,K:h eart:T,
QJ,QT,JTs

So then I played around in flopzilla.

J - clearly a great river, we suck out on almost all the pears and beat whatever QJ and JT. If it's the J and he checks, that probably removes nutflushes, leaving 3 flush and 1 straight combo. Clear value bet.

K - he makes a few more two pairs than with the J and only one top pair that we beat. Same impact on the flush draws. Not as good as the J but still a value bet.

A - This makes 18 combos of two pair. Probably not checking anywhere close to all of these but maybe the notion strikes him for 2 combos worth? Offsuit there's 8 combos of top pair, med to bad kicker and only 15 combo of 9x/8x. If it's the A, it's 3 top pair and 13 9x/8x. So an offsuit ace is worse than the A, if it's right to bluff at this distribution at all.

Looking at the A, there are 18 combos of better hands (2+3+13) and we risk 1 to win 5.75ish so must get 14.8% or >3 combos to fold out. That's all the 87s and one T9s.

Looking at the A, there are 25 combos (2+8+15) and we'd have to fold out >4 combos or another T9s than the A.

Soooo, I dunno? Do you think he even folds 8x every time?

All thoughts on this appreciated.

honestly i would assume they fold 8x approximately 0-25% of the time and i would heavily heavily lean towards the lower side of that range but i am assuming the above posters have nit images or something... i would also assume all two pairs check, if he is going to have river donks on the A that beat KJ its going to be really weak aces probably. of course we are assuming this guy is pretty passive/bad so there is room for spazz in both directions because its not like this guy has a super rational and well thought out strategy

at the end of the day you are bluffing KQ, 22, and once in a while something else when the guy is running bad and wounded/feeling foldy.

Yeah yeah yeah I know but he's real bad and I won't really make any claims to know what exactly goes through his head when he decides which button to press.

The river card I got was a Queen, which I think specifically is the most interesting card to perhaps fire off a third barrel with.

IMO, if you've got his limping range right and you don't want to pound a passive live player into submission, you might as well limp behind him.

That would be 3 straights, 2 two pair, 36 9x/8x, and 8 Ahi for 49 combos. Assuming he checks this whole range, all of his Ahi combos would have to fold (49*0.148=7.52), the top of which is Ah7h.

I don't think he ever folds a pair and he shouldn't have Ax where x>T, he should have folded A6-A7 so the only A high he can ever fold is stud\8 type of draw. Overall, i don't think he folds enough to bet A river and he has way too many Q's in his range for us to bet this particular river.

+1

I don't like a bet on the turn since Villian is passive and loose he's not folding any pair on the turn passive loose players always say I put you on ace king or what ever. I bet any ace, king, queen, jack river. Passive loose players won't bluff the river with missed draws