9 handed. Open red jacks utg. Everyone calls except utg1 and sb. I have a nitty image.

Flop 356 with 56 hearts.

BB checks, I bet, calls to the button who raises (almost always a draw here), BB 3bets. BB is a very competent old chinese tag. This is a draw 0%. I fold.

Thoughts? Standard? Exploitative? Bad? His range here is 33’s 44’s 66’s 56s 74s slowplayed 1010’s plus. I don’t think he does this with combo draws. I think he doesn’t do it with 77’s, 88’s, 99’s. It’s really strong to check/3b the field from an old tag.

If you give BB 55 and button Ah4h you're 6.4%. If you give button Ah8h you're 7.75% and if you give button 4h4c you're 10.52% with a median of just over 8%.

Seems like a fold since you're unlikely to improve and with as many opponents as you have an excellent chance of being drawn out on. Even if an over card comes much less a 7,4 or 2 or heart you're swimming upstream.

Sure you have a minor flush blocker but even if you only have to pay another two bets (button could cap) you're getting 6.5/1 assuming a bet your call and button's call on the turn and even a check back on the river.

if you have to face a river bet the odds are even worse and you're in the neighborhood of 11/1 dog to win the hand.

Implied odds are slim unless you 2% your way to a full house and this doesn't even consider other players erroneously slow playing a flopped straight.

The multiplicative effect of that many opponents and that rich a draw combined with fierce flop betting makes folding a reasonably easy decision.

Someone has you drawing slim after this action on this board. I fold too.

i bet the flop here but am wondering if checking is best

Even if button always has a draw and BB never does (which is unrealistic, but we will go with it) you can’t fold here. The pot is big already and you have outs vs BB two pair. You also have the Jh and you could conceivably be ahead of BB if he has 77-TT or A6. Its a gross spot for sure but don’t fold.

If bb can have straights he can also have almost any two pair and the way you frame his likelihood of doing this with overpairs >Jj as being lower than 77-99 seems like a convenient justification for what you already wanted to do. Its Way more likely that he 3bets 88 or 99 on the flop than not 3bet qq+ pre IMO.

It might still be a fold but you need to construct realistic ranges to figure out your avg equity. I’d guess you equity is > 10% but < 20% and close enough that it’s not worth losing sleep over. Important thing is you can realistically estimate equity on the spot and there’s no way to do that besides plugging numbers in and doing calculations.

Thing is a very competent old Chinese tag should have a few hands you’re beating here, like 3hXh, 87hh. Like capping is suicide I agree, but I’m calling this. You’ll also have 5 immediate outs to his flopped two pair.

Also FWIW this is a great spot to 3 bet a hand like 64 from his POV.


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I would put him on a pair lower than mine and call him down.

Show me the goods buddy!

Grunch

I call flop easily. Pot pretty big and I can counterfeit his two pair, bink a jack, or back door a J. You're getting a lot : 1, peel the flop and reevaluate.

(Edit: Wow did not see I had already commented on this hand under temp account and said fold.)

i don't think flop is even close. call.

She (BB) has at least a set. Good fold. 3 bets into a big pot like that? No, thanks, I’ll fold.

I think you can check this flop. Especially if you're going to fold to a 3 bet

I also think it's a mistake to pigeon hole BB into such a narrow range. You could be right, but this line seems incredibly exploitable to me. Your opponents should be raising and 3 betting a ton if they suspect you'll bet/fold something like jacks imo. I'm not saying you should take on any and all heat, but then why bet the flop? Please don't say for information

Then why bet? The problem is everyone knows this flop is unlikely to smash hero's range. I understand information hiding kind of goes out the window in multi-way pots like this, but it's still not terrible to have some stronger hands among your checks and 88-AA or XXhh seem reasonable to me where some you'd prefer not folding and others you're never folding. I think I'd rather check and flat 2 cold than bet/fold to 2 bets holding the Jh.

I agree that checking and calling 2 cold is better than betting and folding for 2 bets. However, if you check this flop and say it goes bet and BB CR isn't 3 betting a better play given you have underrept your hand? I'm assuming we are not putting the BB on the same tight range as when he 3 bet in the original scenario. I'm also assuming we have an opportunity to fold out some players and protect our hand.

Are you checking this flop because you won't be c betting here when you miss but want to have some value in your range? Are you assuming a bet will go in anyway's and better to wait to see how the action goes and what comes off on the turn before potentially putting in more action.

There are times when I have a good enough feel for what is going on that I can make a fold here. However, if this is the case then there is no point in posting this hand in a forum.

Another thing that should be considered is how would the BB play the hands that have us beat? It's very possible that he would donk the flop. Maybe he would slow play till the turn.

"Very competent old chinese TAG" is pretty much all I needed to know. At first, I read it as old chinese HAG, honestly, because of the lack of capitals. From personal experience around Toronto and BC, old and Chinese generally means that all raises are to be believed. Full stop. Furthermore, OP says he's got a nitty image. BB c/r a nitty UTG raiser. That's also screaming "BIG HAND HERE!!"

As Ken Warren said, use the rule of 70. Subtract the bettor's age from 70 and you'll find out roughly what the odds of it being a bluff are.

you don't have to be 100% precise being fairly accurate is good enough. . This range for him is quite tight. 77/76s/64s suited BDFD should also be in there. I am not in a position to judge since I been making some awful awful fold on riv with winner in huge pot live. However what I find more important is trying to plug leaks and over time hopefully I don't have them anymore. This is one of those situation where you can realistic solve with any program.

DonJuan so based on the ranges you advocate a call down?

Do you ever bet on sports. If everywhere the odd is offering you +150 and I am offering you +1150. Would you take it?

IMO folding here is exploitable and incorrect. Its's two more small bets to us in a big pot, we have an overpair and enough equity to continue. BB range include a lot of hands we beat including 44, 77-TT, 34,45,46ss. A lot of his two pair combos can be counterfeited as well. If the turn is a 2 thru 7, or and A or K I fold OTT.

so on the flop you are getting like 12:1 but not closing action. I think if you call, you will entice some of the others to call and obv button aint going anywhere. will button repop with a draw? I sure would if its good enough.

even still if your range is correct then I think you have odds here. pot is massive and you have 4 outs against 2pr which makes up a good chunk of range. black jacks is proly a fold tho bc someone is surely drawing to a flush.

There a lot of similarity with poker,sport betting,horse racing, stock market etc. Everyone always talk about Expect value but they can't put similar situation together to see if it makes sense.

You need to call 4 small bet into a 40ish pot and that around 8%. In your own word his range vs yours and you getting 37% equity to call +chop equity.

Go to https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculat...converter.html.

Now go to sport book and ask this questions to any sport bettor I got this DET baseball game at +1150 on this game while it showing +150 everywhere should I make a bet?

Of course there still a third player to act and our equity will get less share of pot but you never going to constantly get this kind of situation with this kind of +ev unlike sport betting or stock market. Poker is still so easy compare to other gambling activity.

Another similarity is that profit is made off of people incorrectly applying math.

You don’t have to be precise but running your equity against 1 player when there’ll be at least 2 and possibly as many as 5 other players in the pot isn’t a small issue.

I do have the world behind me and have to avoid some very dynamic runouts.

I think I would probably make the call down nowadays because I have been trying to be more balanced in my calling ranges.

lol, a mod deleted the whole thing. let's just say - if you're interested in starting a game and you're in the area, send me a PM. i'm not going to play you heads up online, and no one would want to spend 2-3 months paying double rake heads up live against someone half way competent if there were worse players wanting to sit.

so let's just focus on the hand.

You're 37% against the sb given a roughly realistic range, the guy on the button has a draw heavy range that's occasionally nutted that saps another 10-15% of your equity, and the people behind, when they call, usually have something in that ballpark sans the nutted hands. Given those assumptions your equity is probably around 15- 20% and given your necessary equity to continue is < 10% it's clearly not a fold.

But it's not anything close to 37% and estimating your equity like that in multiway pots will lead to major mistakes.