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Old 09-07-2017, 01:42 AM   #1
pohuist
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preflop check up

8 handed 20-40
UTG raises, 2 weak players call, villain 3! in LMP.
UTG is a LAG, his range is 88+ ATs+ AQ+. Villain is aggressive, capable of making a play, usually knows where he stands and generally tough to play OOP. His range is 55+ AQs+ and AK. Weak players have ATSC, any pair, and some random garbage.

You have J9s. Do you call SB? BB?
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Old 09-07-2017, 02:05 AM   #2
blundy
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Re: preflop check up

If UTG is actually LAG, your range seems pretty narrow.

Your position sucks, cause you're gonna be trapped between the two villains, and probably forced to spew bets when you catch a decent piece that can't safely fold. If UTG caps somewhat liberally (which he should with the cold-callers, unless he flats his entire range), it sucks a little more.

Seems like a decent spot to avoid the varience.


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Old 09-07-2017, 03:41 AM   #3
dadjoey
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Re: preflop check up

Fold-pre. Your hand doesn't beat UTG or Villain's range as you describe. Your hand is smack in the weak players range and you're OOP.
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Old 09-07-2017, 11:32 AM   #4
AlanBostick
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Re: preflop check up

Fold in SB without a second thought.

I feel like it is a lot closer in the BB, even if we think that UTG is likely to cap.

Personally, I would fold here, but I may be giving up some value.

Note that if UTG caps, our position is no longer terrible, because our relative position becomes best position. If they don't cap, though, our position is truly awful.
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Old 09-07-2017, 11:42 AM   #5
colt45ss
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Re: preflop check up

with 2 weak players in folding from the SB is tougher than normal.
From the BB despite the positional disadvantage I need to see a flop
admittedly this could be a ride on the variance coaster but with two weakies already in I smell the simmering savory big pot stew
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Old 09-07-2017, 11:46 AM   #6
Munga30
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Re: preflop check up

I think its close by h&c equity. But realizing that equity will be tough(er) because of our position and the nature of the hand. So i fold from the bb.
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Old 09-07-2017, 01:11 PM   #7
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Re: preflop check up

dont think im folding JTs from either spot and im letting J8s go from both spots (maybe peeling in BB in right dynamic) so this one prolly qualifies as the tommy angelo "its so close it doesnt matter" mentality
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Old 09-07-2017, 03:30 PM   #8
SetofJacks
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Re: preflop check up

What card room?
I can't fold this from BB.
Sometimes I can fold it from SB.
If this was at Canterbury, it's well-known that the Neezy is the nuts.
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Old 09-07-2017, 03:49 PM   #9
pohuist
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Re: preflop check up

Quote:
Originally Posted by SetofJacks View Post
What card room?
I can't fold this from BB.
Sometimes I can fold it from SB.
If this was at Canterbury, it's well-known that the Neezy is the nuts.
Not at Canterbury. 4 bets is the cap. UTG will cap with precisely AA, KK and AKs. So, it is very likely that it will stay at 3 bets but with awful position.
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Old 09-07-2017, 04:23 PM   #10
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Re: preflop check up

Fold SB, call BB. I think folding this hand in BB with the 2 weak players in is pretty bad, even if UTG will cap 100%
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Old 09-07-2017, 11:01 PM   #11
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Re: preflop check up

Equilab is your friend here. I ran a couple of simulations with different opening ranges:

1-Here I assigned UTG and button the ranges OP used in his post, but these are clearly too narrow based on the descriptions (UTG is LAG, button is aggressive, capable…)

Equity Win Tie
MP2 27.93% 26.85% 1.08% { 88+, ATs+, AQo+ }
MP3 14.04% 13.25% 0.78% { TT-33, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }
CO 14.07% 13.29% 0.78% { JJ-33, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }
BU 26.32% 25.42% 0.90% { 55+, AQs+, AKo }
BB 17.64% 17.03% 0.61% { J9s }

Based purely on hot/cold equity, getting 13.5:2 (assuming no 4! from UTG) then calling BB looks good. If we’re sure UTG is going to 4! (he probably should 4! 100% of his range in a 5-way pot here) then we’re getting 17.5:3, still okay to call but very close. I usually think in a game that has 2 cold callers preflop I can make up for the lost equity associated with being out of position.

2-Here I’ve assigned much wider ranges to UTG and button, consistent with their descriptions. For UTG I used the Deuces Cracked Open Raising Chart in Equilab to assign a range, for the button I choose some pretty aggressive 3! range:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 24.93% 23.68% 1.24% { 55+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, A9o+, KQo }
MP3 16.55% 15.51% 1.04% { TT-33, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }
CO 16.58% 15.53% 1.05% { JJ-33, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }
BU 22.75% 21.61% 1.14% { 33+, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, A7o+, KTo+, QJo }
BB 19.19% 18.28% 0.90% { J9s }


Here we’re feeling pretty good about making a call even if we’re sure it’s going to be 4! preflop.
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Old 09-08-2017, 04:51 AM   #12
Montrealcorp
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Re: preflop check up

imo , the chance we fulfill our entire equity is impossible, even if we include bad players .
A lot of our guthsot and weak draw wont make it to the river due to possibility lot of raising postflop with a lag and a 3bet pot pf.

we should have much lower equity imo.
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Old 09-08-2017, 11:19 AM   #13
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Re: preflop check up

Imagine playing this hand for one bet multiway preflop in a game where someone always bets the flop and turn and no one ever raises or folds.[1]

We would love this hand, even out of position.

So what's so bad about playing it in a multi-bet pot preflop when we expect multiple bets to go in on the flop?

(At game speed, I tend to fold this because I suck after the flop. But I think calling is reasonable.)

----------
[1] This is an oversimplification, but it gets the point across.
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Old 09-08-2017, 02:34 PM   #14
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Re: preflop check up

I call both SB and BB. Suited connector and one-gapper hands actually play BETTER multi-way when a couple of players have strong ranges. I did a bunch of stoves on this and posted about it a few years ago.
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Old 09-08-2017, 05:13 PM   #15
SetofJacks
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Re: preflop check up

Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
I call both SB and BB. Suited connector and one-gapper hands actually play BETTER multi-way when a couple of players have strong ranges. I did a bunch of stoves on this and posted about it a few years ago.
56s or 67s are actually quite a bit better in such a scenario than J9s, but I still call this from both blinds.
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Old 09-08-2017, 07:08 PM   #16
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Re: preflop check up

Quote:
Originally Posted by SetofJacks View Post
56s or 67s are actually quite a bit better in such a scenario than J9s, but I still call this from both blinds.
Well, 87 suited is the bomb. But J9 suited is fine and honestly a little better in the stoves than 76s and 65s (both of which are calls too).
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Old 09-10-2017, 08:39 PM   #17
asmitty
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Re: preflop check up

I call in both the SB and the BB if your posted ranges are accurate. I'd also donk a bunch of flops.

Last edited by asmitty; 09-10-2017 at 08:44 PM.
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Old 09-11-2017, 05:32 AM   #18
HUMBLE.
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Re: preflop check up

shouldn't we at least be calculating like minimum flop equity?

the chances that we flop a draw, that is at least a 3 flush or a 3 straight where we can continue onto the turn?

i hate stoves because they take into account seeing a river, eg. A23 flops that go runner runner 9's or Jacks.
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Old 09-11-2017, 06:05 PM   #19
lawdude
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Re: preflop check up

Quote:
Originally Posted by HUMBLE. View Post
shouldn't we at least be calculating like minimum flop equity?

the chances that we flop a draw, that is at least a 3 flush or a 3 straight where we can continue onto the turn?

i hate stoves because they take into account seeing a river, eg. A23 flops that go runner runner 9's or Jacks.
While I agree with this generally, it has limited relevance to suited connectors.

It has most relevance to small pocket pairs. There, in a big bloated pot with aggressive players, you aren't seeing the turn without your set, let alone the river. So you should calculate based solely on whether you are going to flop a set on the flop, and then make an adjustment for the possibility of an overset.

But with suited connectors/gappers, in a gigantic pot, you are going to actually get to see the turn with a lot of your backdoors and gutters, which means you are going to get to the river if you have anything that can make the winning hand. The only parts of the stove calculation that you are really going to have to fold are the hands that go runner-runner 2-pair or trips, and maybe a few runner-runner flushes on awful boards. But that's a pretty small portion of your equity.
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