Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon_locke
I have a very good memory: On page 117, you recommend that if you have a certain image, you should check AJo from the button after someone open limps the button.
This is wrong.
Jon
Since it's out of my psychology book I don't have an issue with posting the whole chapter.
What Your Opponent Thinks
Suppose you are playing hold ’em, limit or no-limit, are in the big blind, everyone passes to the player on the button who only calls, the little blind folds, and you are in the big blind and hold the A
J
Do you raise or just call?
Most of you will give one of two answers. The majority will say you should raise because it’s likely you have the best hand. A few will say you should not raise since you are out of position and not raising is the mathematical equivalent of getting infinite odds since it’s costing you zero to call.
Both of these ideas have merit. But they are not what you should be concerned with when you are in this situation. A top player will think about three things and assuming that you are trying to become a top player, you should be thinking about them too. They are:
1. How well does your opponent play?
2. How well do you play in relation to your opponent?
3. How well does your opponent think you play?
In fact, the third idea, “How well does your opponent think you play,” is something that is extremely important. Here’s some examples.
Example No. 1: You opponent thinks you play tight. You should now be inclined to just call. The reason for this is that if small cards hit and you raised, your opponent may be encouraged to try to steal from you when he does not make a hand. He might bet if you check, he might raise if you bet, and in no-limit he might float your continuation bet. Ironically, if you do just call, win the pot, and show your hand, you will confirm to your opponent that you are a tight, unimaginative player.
Example No. 2: Your opponent thinks you play loose. This is actually a very tough situation to be in. The reason for this is that hold ’em is a game where you often prefer a tight image, and a loose image will not allow you to maneuver your opponent when you are out of position. Specifically, if you check on a later street your opponent won’t be afraid that you might be trying for a check-raise since you usually have a weak holding. This means that calling is probably the best strategy against most but not all your opponents.
Example No. 3: Your opponent thinks you play passively. Now you should raise. This will increase your chances of stealing if you don’t flop a hand since your raise indicates that you already have a made hand. And if you do flop a strong hand, you can check and your check will tend to be believable allowing you to get a check-raise in on either the flop or a later street.
Example No. 4: Your opponent thinks you play too aggressively. Not raising is now the correct strategy. You need to understand that all your raise will now accomplish is to get more money into the pot and it won’t have any of the other good psychological effects. Your opponent won’t fear your holding, and if a big card flops that does not hit your hand and he makes a small pair, he will stay with you. And if he makes a hand of moderate strength, he should be quick to raise you on a later street.
Example No. 5: Your opponent thinks you play very well. When this is the case, your opponent will tend to play passively since he will be concerned about losing bets to you that he feels he should not. This means you should be inclined to raise.
When you have the best hand or make the best hand, you will now often be able to win the maximum, but your opponent will frequently only win the minimum. Furthermore, your raise may confirm to him that you have a good hand as usual and allow you to steal on a later street. For example, if a king hits on the river, your bet here may make him throw a small pair away.
Final Note: As you can see, there is much more to playing poker, and hold ’em in particular, than just the strength of your hand. Of course, the ideas here should not be set in concrete. They are just one small facet of the game, and many other factors should come into play. In fact, I can envision many situations where the correct play will be just the opposite from those given above. Still, understanding what your opponent thinks is extremely important if you wish to excel at these games.