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Old 10-12-2017, 01:50 AM   #76
Clumsy Surgeon
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Re: A pre-flop spot

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Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth View Post
Maximizing expectation is sometimes very different from betting or raising because you have an equity advantage. No one is saying that by reraising you're not making extra money in the long run. But it doesn't mean that you're maximizing your expectation. Put another way, you need to think statistically and not mathematically.

The "Playing In Loose Games Sections" of Hold 'em Poker for Advanced Players was originally written eighteen years ago. Yet it seems that some of you are not even aware of the ideas that it contains, and these ideas sometimes lead to some very strange plays such as checking the flop when you hold two aces in your hand, you're in last position, and it's most likely that the aces are the best hand. (See page 171.)

Best wishes,
Mason
Please explain how gaining extra money in the long run doesn’t increase our expectation.
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Old 10-12-2017, 01:52 AM   #77
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Re: A pre-flop spot

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Originally Posted by OnTheRail15 View Post
I understand the concept in your book. It's just that I don't think it is correct in the situation you describe. Or in this one.


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Is there ever a situation where you think this is correct? I don’t.
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Old 10-12-2017, 02:09 AM   #78
Mason Malmuth
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Re: A pre-flop spot

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Originally Posted by Clumsy Surgeon View Post
Please explain how gaining extra money in the long run doesn’t increase our expectation.
You need to read what you bolded again and notice that it says "maximizing your expectation."

MM
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Old 10-12-2017, 02:51 AM   #79
mitchman
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Re: A pre-flop spot

Mason's book is great. It was written for games spanning 1995-2005. The good loose games back then were not only loose pre but loose postflop, you could hit an obvious flush and see 4 ppl put action in on the river. Nowadays, you have to get ur value in early because even in the great games that are capped 6ways rivers are often uncontested or usually HU at showdown.
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Old 10-12-2017, 02:56 AM   #80
OnTheRail15
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Re: A pre-flop spot

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Originally Posted by Clumsy Surgeon View Post
Is there ever a situation where you think this is correct? I don’t.


No.


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Old 10-12-2017, 02:57 AM   #81
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Re: A pre-flop spot

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Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth View Post
You need to read what you bolded again and notice that it says "maximizing your expectation."

MM
Please don't ban me, but I still don't get it.

You agree that by 3 betting we make extra money in the long run as compared to not 3 betting preflop. But by not 3 betting we maximize our expectation.

Isn't our expectation the amount of money we expect to win in the long run? Isn't this our expected value?
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Old 10-12-2017, 03:29 AM   #82
Mason Malmuth
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Re: A pre-flop spot

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Originally Posted by Clumsy Surgeon View Post
Please don't ban me, but I still don't get it.

You agree that by 3 betting we make extra money in the long run as compared to not 3 betting preflop. But by not 3 betting we maximize our expectation.

Isn't our expectation the amount of money we expect to win in the long run? Isn't this our expected value?
Hi Clumsy Surgeon:

Okay. Let me see if I can explain it this way. By making what appears to be an unusual play before the flop and by then following a unique strategy after the flop you lose some of your EV before the flop but hopefully gain it all back plus a little extra after the flop.

Here is the quote again from page 167 of Hold 'em Poker For Advanced Players:

Quote:
From page 167 of HPFAP: For instance, suppose you have two kings or two queens in the big blind. The player under the gun raises, and six people call. Our preferred way to play this hand is to not reraise, and then when the flop comes to bet out, unless it includes an ace. You should come out betting enlisting the original preflop raiser to be your unwitting partner to knock people out.
Notice that there are two unique changes to standard strategy and standard strategy would be to three bet before the flop and then to lead bet (in most cases) on the flop unless an ace flops (and some players might still lead bet the flop when an ace flops).

1. You only call and don't three-bet before the flop. This should cause your EV to go down.

2. You bet out on the flop unless it includes an ace where a more standard strategy would be to check to the raiser. This should hopefully cause your EV to go up more than it went down before the flop partly because you'll now win the pot more often.

By the way, if you read the Loose Games section in our book, you'll see that there are some hands when against certain types of players in these large multiway pots where we recommend a three-bet, and most players would not make this three-bet.

And for another example, here is part of an article that David Sklansky wrote many years ago which is not currently in any of our books:

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Hold ’em — Eight players have called before the flop and you are in the blind. You should raise with two nines or two aces in the pocket but probably not with two jacks or two queens. This seems very strange but it can be demonstrated mathematically as well as logically. Basically, you raise with aces because of the strength of your hand and with nines because you are getting 8-to-1 odds on your raise and you might flop a set. Of course, jacks and queens could flop a set also but they can win frequently without it. The problem is that it is much harder for these pairs to win by themselves if you give your hand away and double the pot size, especially in early position.
As for being banned, one of the purposes of our forums is vigorous debate. So if you disagree with something I say, that's fine. However, on these forums we also try to keep insults to a minimum. That's been our policy from the very beginning over 20 years ago, and when a poster starts to put up insults, there's a good chance they'll get banned.

Best wishes,
Mason
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Old 10-12-2017, 05:21 AM   #83
dead..money
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Re: A pre-flop spot

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Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth View Post

And for another example, here is part of an article that David Sklansky wrote many years ago which is not currently in any of our books:



Mason
Mason, or David, do you think its correct to raise QQ from the BB in a 8 way limped pot? I do but I guess that can be a topic for the next pre-flop thread


Also, this quote just seems awful: From page 167 of HPFAP: For instance, suppose you have two kings or two queens in the big blind. The player under the gun raises, and six people call. Our preferred way to play this hand is to not reraise, and then when the flop comes to bet out, unless it includes an ace. You should come out betting enlisting the original preflop raiser to be your unwitting partner to knock people out.
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Old 10-12-2017, 01:37 PM   #84
OnTheRail15
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Re: A pre-flop spot

Mason is your advice really that I should check QQ in the BB after 7 limpers?


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Old 10-12-2017, 08:29 PM   #85
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Re: A pre-flop spot

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Mason is your advice really that I should check QQ in the BB after 7 limpers?


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My guess is that he will say no, since we don't have an "unwitting partner" to help us knock players out on the flop.

His proposed strategy seems to presuppose that the pfr will always take an aggressive action on the flop and will raise a donk bet with a huge portion of their range. These assumptions, imo, simply don't hold water.
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Old 10-13-2017, 12:46 PM   #86
Clayton
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Re: A pre-flop spot

i'm interested in the math if someone actually wants to put in the elbow grease, but 7 handed is pretty complicated. i'm going to stick to my guns and guess that if i'm ever blessed with 7 handed pots that ed miller style of gassing up everything resembling a good hand is probably good.

i think the best argument for calling pre and donking non-ace flops would have to be a specific situation (and the math behind it couldn't hurt), but a majority of PFR types and field types would support just 3betting preflop.
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Old 10-15-2017, 12:38 AM   #87
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Re: A pre-flop spot

Seems possible that calling becomes better with the presence of a couple players in the game who will correctly adjust to your 3-bet, but overplay their hand post-flop when you just call. Their positions relative to your position in the blinds plays a factor in the whole 'doing what it takes to win big pots'.
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