No. You need to read and understand all of the Loose Game section in HPFAP. You'll see that we explain that these plays can be like a two-edged sword.

You should also take a look at page 278 of our book Small Stakes Hold 'em; Winning Big with Expert Play. You'll see the same ideas being addressed there (and in many other places throughout that book).

Best wishes,
Mason

So every single poster in this thread is incorrect about this spot? I suppose it's possible but I'm also open to the idea that they may be correct

If you knew more about our history, you would know that many people, some of who were quite well known at the time, have stated that we were incorrect and didn't know what we were saying. Most of them are broke now.

Mason

But all of the people that didn't go broke think you are wrong also?

MM

I don't disagree with that statement, it's obviously correct.

Hi Mason,

I have read HPFAP several times. Your advice with regards to this situation is wrong. I am 100% 3 betting QQ or KK in the situation you present as not doing so is a massive mistake.

Have fun going broke

Mason,

I think most of the respondents understand the concept you are articulating. I would guess that any disagreement reflects differing estimations of one or more of the following probabilities:

1) The probability that the PFR raises with an inferior hand if we donk into him.

2) The probability that the flop gets checked through if we go for a checkraise.

3) The probability that a hand that would call one bet folds for two.

4) The probability that our preflop 3bet is capped by a worse or equal hand (ie not QQ+).

Clearly there is a point where these probabilities are such that not pumping an immediate equity edge becomes a mistake. Obviously none of us has attempted a full EV equation to compare the lines (nor would it be of much use imo) and we are all going off our intuitions here.

Mason, you are wrong and also super condescending. Not a good combo.


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Confirmed going broke by 3-betting JJ pre in a 6 way pot.

I might be ( probably) be wrong here but I think what mason concept is , it’s about in very loose game ( not just pf but posftlop).

If you got 4-5 players who would go near Always to SD with close to any pair , 3betting pf here accomplishes basically nothing beside gaining 1sb from the players .
And, after their small pf mistake , they actually don’t do any mistake by calling anything worthwhile because they have sufficient odds to play.
So in a sense you bank on small edges pf (but definitely profitable), roll the dice and hope you don’t get outdrawn postflop.

But if you can like just call pf here, you might be able to extract more money from them posflop ( because they call no matter what the pot is) because they will make bigger mistake posflop.

think the points is that , the mistake they do pf is diminished has the number of callers increases pf ( beside of course if you have AA or KK because , true I didn’t actually check it out , but I suspect AA and KK 6 way , should have a much higher equity edge than JJ)

I see sometimes online lag players 3 bet lot of hands they know it’s a terrible hands to 3bet with but they still do it successfully because they get lot of calls from bad players and make tons of money by making them folds hands they shouldn’t or they call them to light.

So it might be a better idea to simply call here , have the best relative position in the hand and actually force them to make bigger mistake postflop ( if you 3 bet pf, they will only call you, thinking you have AA , preventing you of raising and trapping them postflop) .

But here , personally, i think we just arguing on tiny edges because both play are profitable .

"Like say we get a good flop: 973tt and we have a BDFD. If it checks around, there's still 12 overcards and 7 additional flush cards that can come, with varying degrees of awkwardness (overcards moreso than flush cards)."

This flop isn't going to get checked around. Mason's recommendation (I believe) is that, after we've just called pre-flop, we bet out on the flop, hoping the pre-flop raiser will raise, clearing the rest of the players out. And if it doesn't clear them out, they're less likely to be making the right play by calling two cold than they would be if we had swelled the pot 3-betting pre-flop.

All the experts I play with 3 bet here. Face it mason, the game has passed you by.

Raising JJ for value here means that we can also raise for value other hands which have an equity edge, like suited connectors. Not having done actual stoving, my shoot-from-the-hip guess is that we can profitably raise even hands like 98s or J9s.

If we are flatting JJ here, we should also be flatting AA here. Does that seem right to you?

No if you call JJ you are making a rather large mistake. You shouldn't compound that mistake by making a bigger mistake.


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I think he's asking what mason does with AA and it's a good question. Because it's certainly a larger mistake to call AA than JJ but if our 3 betting range is AA+ then the money we are going to lose from having discussed a narrow range has to also be accounted for when we don't 3 bet other hands.

My guess is mason would advocate calling AA pf 5 ways because the pot is big.

Follow up queTion. If we do have AA should we turn our having over and show the table. I feel like they will be less likely to call down vs us and we improve how often we will winthe pot, which is going to be large.

I wasn't planning to post this hand from last weekend. But, it's very appropriate to this thread. The hand is from the 20-40 Bellagio game and was playing typical (somewhat loose and aggressive)

The hand:

UTG (a mid-stakes mixed game player) limps in.

There's one fold and the next player raises. He's new to the game and brought several large denomination chips. That suggests to me he's a NLHE player (possibly 10-20 or higher).

A loose player calls. A 20-40 reg (possibly over-aggressive) calls. Chau Giang(!) calls (he's been playing mid-stakes games since the WSOP). The Button folds.

I'm in the small blind with JJ and consider the situation. With only the Big Blind (very loose) and the UTG limp as players I could possibly knock out, I elect to call.

The Big Blind called.

UTG (a mid-stakes mixed game player) looks up from his phone and reassess the situation. He decides to three-bet. I was certain at the time that his decision to three-bet was made at that moment (based on body language and playing with him in the 20-40 O/8 game where he often jams with draws). In fact, it wasn't until after the hand that I realized that I didn't really consider that he limp-reraised with AA/KK.

Four players call the three-bet and the action was on me.

At this point, I'm certain Jacks are the best hand since the initial raiser didn't four-bet and nobody else has shown strength. But, I elected to call. The Big Blind called to close the action. If I had four-bet, I'm extremely confident the UTG player would have five-bet for the same reasons he three-bet.

Seven players saw the flop with 21 small bets in the pot.

The flop is: T52

I checked. Big Blind checked.

UTG checked (largely confirming he doesn't have AA/KK). The initial pre-flop raiser checked. Loose player checked.

The 20-40 reg (possibly over-aggressive) bet. Chau Giang called.

The action is back on me and I raise.

The Big Blind who had calling chips in his hand says "Thanks!" and folds. UTG calls two bets cold (confirming he didn't flop a set since he'll surely choose to jam with it).

Initial pre-flop raiser folds. Loose player folds.

The 20-40 reg three-bets. Chau Giang folds.

I call and UTG calls.

Three players see the turn with 15.5 big bets in the pot.

The turn is: T524

I check. UTG checks.

The 20-40 reg bets. I raise.

UTG briefly considers while gathering chips and says "Everyone's going to wonder how I got there if I win this pot." (yeah, that's a big tell and not an act)

The 20-40 reg calls.

Three players see the river with 21.5 big bets in the pot.

The river is: T524Q

I bet. UTG folds quickly. The 20-40 reg calls.

You played postflop fine


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Your guest is wrong. Also, there are some other hands which might be worth three-betting. See HPFAP for more discussion.

Mason

Giving up early round EV that a raise would give you because you expect to get it back later is a very complicated subject. Expert players who aren't concerned about variance should be less apt to do it. Poker writers who want to maximize their royalty EV by steering intermediate players away from judgement situations and volatility, should use examples as extreme as possible without crossing over into obvious incorrectness, in order to emphasize the advice they are giving those intermediate book buyers.

I agree except I thought variance has nothing to do with the decision...

I can get on board with this and don't disagree. I'm curious what you think a good cutoff for obviously incorrect for this example is. I think JJ is in that category.


However, if you are telling expert Holdem players you are wrong buy my book to see why, I don't think it's a fair argument to say well we use extreme examples for amateurs. Seems far more appropriate to say this is probably ok advise if you suck at poker but 3 betting is clearly correct if properly rolled and not incompetent post flop

Variance has nothing to do with YOUR decision. We were talking about MY ev.

The mid-stakes winning old school tags, all of whom I respect and have learned a lot from, would call this spot a majority of the time. I also believe from the big blind they just call with AK in the same spot. 3-ways or less to the pot, they'll 3-bet this spot >80%.

Just a cool observation between the younger players and old lions.