Quote:
Originally Posted by Clumsy Surgeon
Please don't ban me, but I still don't get it.
You agree that by 3 betting we make extra money in the long run as compared to not 3 betting preflop. But by not 3 betting we maximize our expectation.
Isn't our expectation the amount of money we expect to win in the long run? Isn't this our expected value?
Hi Clumsy Surgeon:
Okay. Let me see if I can explain it this way. By making what appears to be an unusual play before the flop and by then following a unique strategy after the flop you lose some of your EV before the flop but hopefully gain it all back plus a little extra after the flop.
Here is the quote again from page 167 of
Hold 'em Poker For Advanced Players:
Quote:
From page 167 of HPFAP: For instance, suppose you have two kings or two queens in the big blind. The player under the gun raises, and six people call. Our preferred way to play this hand is to not reraise, and then when the flop comes to bet out, unless it includes an ace. You should come out betting enlisting the original preflop raiser to be your unwitting partner to knock people out.
Notice that there are two unique changes to standard strategy and standard strategy would be to three bet before the flop and then to lead bet (in most cases) on the flop unless an ace flops (and some players might still lead bet the flop when an ace flops).
1. You only call and don't three-bet before the flop. This should cause your EV to go down.
2. You bet out on the flop unless it includes an ace where a more standard strategy would be to check to the raiser. This should hopefully cause your EV to go up more than it went down before the flop partly because you'll now win the pot more often.
By the way, if you read the Loose Games section in our book, you'll see that there are some hands when against certain types of players in these large multiway pots where we recommend a three-bet, and most players would not make this three-bet.
And for another example, here is part of an article that David Sklansky wrote many years ago which is not currently in any of our books:
Quote:
Hold ’em — Eight players have called before the flop and you are in the blind. You should raise with two nines or two aces in the pocket but probably not with two jacks or two queens. This seems very strange but it can be demonstrated mathematically as well as logically. Basically, you raise with aces because of the strength of your hand and with nines because you are getting 8-to-1 odds on your raise and you might flop a set. Of course, jacks and queens could flop a set also but they can win frequently without it. The problem is that it is much harder for these pairs to win by themselves if you give your hand away and double the pot size, especially in early position.
As for being banned, one of the purposes of our forums is vigorous debate. So if you disagree with something I say, that's fine. However, on these forums we also try to keep insults to a minimum. That's been our policy from the very beginning over 20 years ago, and when a poster starts to put up insults, there's a good chance they'll get banned.
Best wishes,
Mason