Quote:
Originally Posted by dadjoey
Fold Pre
We looked left, because that's our job. We got a reliable folding tell, which is why we looked. Now that we've effectively moved one seat towards the button, this hand should be played. Once the villains are laggy enough, we start to dominate them if they refuse to let us shut them out of the pot.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smudger2408
We do not have clean outs.
Overpairs, A-J, A-Q are certainly in his range.
Sure, hands that beat us are in the villain's range. This is almost always the case when the villain's range is uncapped and we're drawing to non nut hands. A better way to look at this is to look at our equity, our range's equity (which could lend credibility to our future bluffs), and the equity of the villain's range. Making a list of hands that have us dead isn't that useful. We need to know how much of his complete range those hands make up. If he likes 3 betting a bunch of offsuit A's or suited connectors, the answer is different than for a nit. Do you have any thoughts on the villain's range and what that means for our dubious draws?
Quote:
By calling, we are saying, 1 in 8.5 times we have to hit a card on the turn that makes us good without having to put a lot more money in when we are bad.
There are 8 cards in the deck that give us an open ender. 6 more that give us toppest pear. Almost a quarter of the deck gives us a 1 card flush draw (some of these get double counted). Even more cards give us gutshots, with 1/4 of those including the bonus FD. We get to see a river a bunch of the time. Way more that 1 in 8.5. In a HU pot, we never have to put a lot more money in. We get to choose whether we're building a huge pot or calling down.
Quote:
This is not a spewtard 3 bet. He three bets a little wide, but not ridiculoulsy wide.
You get in to spots in LHE where you are getting a good price. You're not always winning when you improve, but the price is still good enough to take that risk. Being good players, sometimes we have to play well OOP. If you iso-raise and then over fold when 3 bet, you've created a huge potential leak in your game. Post 2005, tons of people are good in steal/re-steal spots.
Quote:
Originally Posted by holmfries
Doug’s comments seem pretty spot on. Seems like a super standard spot so far - can’t imagine folding PF or OTF. I imagine we make a pair on the turn and that is the tricky street.
Thanks. Agree with your thinking and prediction on the next card. I guess the other tricky spot would be spiking the K
and having to decide if we're semi-bluffing the 2nd nut FD + OESD.